The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or 
Still short on time but here is the remainder of my thoughts.
Like I said Early winter can be tough here on LI but Once we start getting the water tems down especially in the Area of North Eastern Suffolk County what tends to happen is that the effects of the warm water wear off and due to our northern placement we wind up getting a rain snow line that sets up about the middle of the Island with the LIE believe it or not being the fine line between rain and snow. The other bonus being that the water while nearing the freezing level never actually Ices over allowing for enhancement much like you would see in the Great Lakes in LES and you also see it quite often just south of the Cape. It is not really a well documented pattern but Having lived in many places on LI it is easy to discern a pattern Given a scenario wher the R/S line is splitting the Island you can Actually draw a Semi-Circle from Central Nassau County to the wester reaches of the North Fork of LI with the LIE being the Trough of the Semi Circle and see the Snowfall Amounts be rather High in those areas. As you get into western LI you get the NYC heat Island keeping the totals down and too far east on LI it is possible that the Low is too close and running near the warm core and causing mixing problems. The pine barrens add another dimension during a winter storm to forecasting snow. If the hours before the precipitation starts are calm and it is in the evening you can find snow there due to its lower elevation when all other areas are recieving rain. That is rare but it does happen. I will discuss some other findings and when winter arrives my Home weather station readings during significant or "hopefull
" times.
Thanks
Mike
