this winter is going to be mild

[vbhoutex]

I find it strange that your area is expected to be above normal into the new year when right now most of the models are intimating a very strong polar surge right after the first of the year. You are welcome to your opinions here and I hope you keep posting them. Variablility is the spice of life. I will warn you however, that you need to back up your opinions with facts around this site as we have many professionals and amatuers here that do know what they are talking about when it comes to weather. Other wise you will get the kind of reaction you got with your post. That's just facts, not an opinion.

[mrfreeze]

Oh well then if it's true for Missouri then it's true for the rest of the world

*rolls eyes*

i think you are misunderstaning what im saying. when i said i thought winter would be mild i meant here. why would i have any idea what it's going to be like anywhere else?

i never claimed to be a metrologist but i have been following weather since i was a boy. i never said i couldn't be wrong . i could be so far off base it ain't funny. but i'll tell you this much i,ve been pretty dead on for the most part most winters. im not bringing this topic up again let's just see how it all pans out. if im wrong blast, me all you want. i'll certainly deserve it.

[mrfreeze]

I find it strange that your area is expected to be above normal into the new year when right now most of the models are intimating a very strong polar surge right after the first of the year. You are welcome to your opinions here and I hope you keep posting them. Variablility is the spice of life. I will warn you however, that you need to back up your opinions with facts around this site as we have many professionals and amatuers here that do know what they are talking about when it comes to weather. Other wise you will get the kind of reaction you got with your post. That's just facts, not an opinion.

well that's pretty much what i said though really. about the part that it would be above normal until right after the new year. but that is into the new year if only just barely. i have to go with hunches because that's all i have. unfortunately with me doing that im either going to be right or way off base. it looks like with what your saying i could be right for a couple of weeks and then be horribly wrong the rest of the way.

however i do remember january and febuary of 85. it was pretty mild until the 9th of january that winter. in fact 70 degrees on christmas day i believe. less than a month later we set an all time record low of -20. that was the last time snow was on the ground for the better part of six weeks.

one more example, we had no snowfall the winter of 92-93 until jan of 93. we wound up with over 30'' a good 10'' above normal. in fact we had 20'' of snow in a little over a week. we also set record lows of near zero at the end of feb.

those two years i couldn't of been more wrong. last winter i said would be cold and snowy and it was. every winter between 98 -99 through 2001-2002 i said would be mild and for the exception of dec 2000 i was dead on. after dec 2000 i said the worst was over. we wound up with 2.5'' of snow the entire year of 2001. second least amount ever on record.

so you see i've had some big misses but i,ve been right alot too. all this based on nothing but hunches. don't ask me how it's worked but more often than not it has.

this year could be a year like 84-85 and 92-93. if it is i'll look like the biggest idiot ever. i will say this while i think it will be mild it certainly won't be as mild as 2001-2002 or any of the late ninties winters.

[therock1811]

I might have overreacted a bit..and with that said, I apologize...tho I still don't agree...