looking good for c-pa--so far

[FLguy]

1evans, probably a mix to rain event for you.

The only thing I will say to that is, I will believe it when I see it.

colin is most likely right.

[Anonymous]

well, Iwon't argue.

[FLguy]

well, Iwon't argue.

ok, tell me why you think coastal NJ will remain all or mostly all snow. im all ears and more than willing to listen.

[NJWxGuy]

tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.

Our locals have sworn by the GFS this year and for a while for that matter. It did stand for Good For S*** before. Why the change??

Because the ECMWF can't handle s/w energy in the southern stream and lags it too far back in the Southwest, thus inducing outputs that phase too early and run these storms in the Plains states ... but at the same time, the ECMWF does pick up on CAD events a hell of a lot better than the GFS. On the other hand, the GFS's overall pattern depiction has been a bit better, and the more progressive nature of the southern stream depictions have actually scored some brownie points ... although, it sucks with CAD.

SF

You read my mind, didn't you? This is exactly what me and HM have been trying to tell people for weeks.

[FLguy]

tonights EC is trending in the right direction after last nights crap. has 995 low over SNE on D5

still is the furthest west with the initial low

Euro is La garbage...

Euro has been HIDEOUS this year and anyone that wants to dispute that ought to have their heads checked out. By far the best model has been the GFS over the past month, and also in the beginning of Dec as well. Has it been great? Not exactly, but the best. GGEM has had some success as well.

Our locals have sworn by the GFS this year and for a while for that matter. It did stand for Good For S*** before. Why the change??

Because the ECMWF can't handle s/w energy in the southern stream and lags it too far back in the Southwest, thus inducing outputs that phase too early and run these storms in the Plains states ... but at the same time, the ECMWF does pick up on CAD events a hell of a lot better than the GFS. On the other hand, the GFS's overall pattern depiction has been a bit better, and the more progressive nature of the southern stream depictions have actually scored some brownie points ... although, it sucks with CAD.

SF

You read my mind, didn't you? This is exactly what me and HM have been trying to tell people for weeks.

both of you are exactly right.

and instead of GFS = Good for poop, we can now say that the GFS is good for something.

[Anonymous]

all right fine, it will be a rain/mix mess. The second strom the 5-7 looks good though.

[FLguy]

all right fine, it will be a rain/mix mess. The second strom the 5-7 looks good though.

yes it does. and i dont agree with JB about the potential for flooding in the northeast from the second event. you arent going to get a major SE ridge when the 50/50 low is there. even tonights EC had the 50/50 low. so even if the ridge does pop back in spain, the teleconnection may be mitigated. instead of a full inland runner, its most likely to be another Miller B.

[Anonymous]

I don't know if it was DT or not, I know Iherd it herre or at WWBB from a met, the 5-7 storm could be the storm of the season, a major MECS, is this true?

[FLguy]

I don't know if it was DT or not, I know Iherd it herre or at WWBB from a met, the 5-7 storm could be the storm of the season, a major MECS, is this true?

umm, i dont know about the event of the season. that i think is reserved for the middle of FEB and/or the first half of MAR.

[Anonymous]

good, I'm just hoping that I can keep a constant snow cover untill then.