Nor'easter to rake Cape May to Montauk Point

[donsutherland1]

After examining the radar, SREF, and 18Z model guidance (just for trends), few changes are in order. The biggest change is that Richmond's snow prospects have been dramatically reduced with little additional accumulation likely overnight. Given some of the uncertainties, Boston has been placed into the category "an inch or less" rather than "a few flurries at most."

Final ideas:

<b>Nothing more than a few flurries at most:</b>
Danbury, Hartford, Peekskill, Worcester

<b>An inch or less:</b>
Boston

<b>Generally 0.5"-2.5"</b>
Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Providence, Richmond, Washington, DC, Wilmington, DE (DCA)

<b>Generally 2"-4" with local amounts of 6":</b>
Babylon, Cape May, Ocean City, Salisbury

<b>Generally 4"-8" with isolated amounts near 10":</b>
Montauk Point, Nantucket

In the end, we'll see how these estimates hold out after some tweaking. Although the storm will be a close call for the I-95 Corridor, I believe that a general miss is likely with respect to significant snowfall.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I agree, Don.. NYC suburbs should get 1.5 inches.

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

The eastern suburbs should do better. The northern and western ones, aside from those immediately adjacent to the city, will be hardpressed to receive more than a coating.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yep. Agreed. Since, This storm is a miss, Gotta look forward to Next week ( or Late Next Week, Weekend)

[donsutherland1]

Chris,

While there is some room for error, my greatest concern actually lies with the storm pulling the moisture back toward its center--at least initially--as it intensifies. If this happens, little or nothing would fall throughout the I-95 Corridor. Of course, that would be an unwelcome bust for me as I have 0.5"-2.5" through that area (except for Boston) which would only compound the agony of a lack of snowfall.

Fortunately, there will be additional opportunities and I do expect at least one or two of those to be realized.

[Anonymous]

donsutherland1, in regards to you totals on WWBB 4-8 with local to 10'' on Long Island. What do you see for the central NJ immediate coast.

[donsutherland1]

The 4"-8" is out in eastern Suffolk County on Long Island. I believe the central NJ coast--immediately on the coast--will receive 2" to perhaps 4". There is a chance for a little more but we will see what happens.

[Anonymous]

I live something like 4 or so miles from the coast, right now it's snowing like crazy and the very heavy snow is making a v-line for my area. My can Suffolk get more than me. Normally our storm totals are somewhat simular. When do you see this ending. My local mets say it continues to snow by rush hour tomorrow.

[donsutherland1]

If the current radar is representative (the snow has become quite heavy in coastal NJ), you could do better than I had stated--let's hope so. I also agree that it will be snowing tomorrow morning around rush hour.

[Anonymous]

good, good. I was worried there. Good luck to everyone with their snow totals! that's it for me, talk tomorrow.

[NJwx15]

Don is this precip going to expand
west at all? I am seriously on the edge! i will die if this is the boundary line all night, please give me some good news

[donsutherland1]

NJwx15,

I really wish that I had good news. I am concerned about the boundary and also the seeming tendency for the precipitation to edge ever so slightly to the south and east due to concern that the precipitation might actually get pulled toward the center of the developing storm. If this happens, Philadelphia and NYC will see little or no snow. I'm not yet sure about this, but it is a concern.

[donsutherland1]

1evans,

After examining the radar and the new run of the ETA, I believe you should see at least 4" and possibly 6" or more. It appears that banding might be setting up that could favor southern and even central coastal NJ.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Don, HM on WWBB, said that SE NJ, may get 12".....

[yoda]

Donsutherland1... you are correct... but i don't think anyone will see more than 6".... new ETA has storm bombing out at 30 hrs... but NE gets NOTHING!!!

[donsutherland1]

WWBB is up again? I'll look forward to reading his post.

[yoda]

I'm sorry... but even though I admire and love HM, I think he is way too high... NJ will see at most 6"... with a few isolated spots seeing 8".

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

This has been a difficult storm to call with a sizable margin for error. It may yet have a few surprises. I do believe the latest run of the ETA is probably more or less in line with how things are developing.

For those receiving the snow, enjoy it.

[Chris the Weather Man]

And, For us, Don? Zip? or 1 inch?

[yoda]

Where in NJ do you live Chris the Weatherman?