brettjrob wrote:00z GFS trends more positively tilted with the trough at 30hrs and pushes the precip shield east... it's over. This winter has had so many missed opportunities that I doubt we'll see anything the rest of Feb or March... bring on spring
.
I really couldin't find many problems or errors with the initializations, along the lines of bad RAOB/UPA coverage. There were also several Dropsondes available for both the ETA and GFS. 9 were in time for the ETA and 13 additional in for the GFS. So, while there were some probelms, no major errors were reported like last night.
665
NOUS42 KWNO 170322
ADMNFD
SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NOAA/NWS/NCEP WASHINGTON DC
0310 UTC TUE FEB 17 2004
170310Z...00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION RUNNING ON TIME WITH GOOD
U.S./CAN. UPA COVERAGE/DATA EXCEPT...
RNK/72318 - 10142..RAOB GROUND EQPMNT FAILURE
UNR/72662 - 10142
TFX/72776 - 10142
BOI/72681 - 10142
KPP/78970 - 10159..N/A
MFL/72202 - SHORT REPORT TO 612MB...ALSO DELETED WINDS ABV
800MB..BAD DIR/FAST..IN TIME FOR 00Z ETA.
SHV/72248 - SHORT TO 426MB.
9 DROPSONDE REPORTS WERE AVBL FOR THE 00Z ETA AND 13 MORE FOR THE
00Z GFS FROM A WSR USAFR C-130 MISSION FLYING TO THE NE OUT OF HNL.
EARLIER NCEP CAMP SPRINGS MD PERIODIC NETWORK PROBLEMS NOW APPEAR
TO BE SOLVED.
BUREK/SDM/NCO/NCEP
----------------------------
095
FXUS10 KWNH 161738
PMDHMD
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1238 PM EST MON FEB 16 2004
VALID FEB 16/1200 UTC THRU FEB 19/0000 UTC
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
OVER THE ERN PACIFIC.. THE GFS IS BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE
UPPER LOW OFF THE PAC NW COAST THAN THE ETA OR NGM. THE GFS
IS ALSO BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THE SFC WHILE THE ETA AND
NGM ARE TOO FAR SOUTH AND TOO FAST.
ALONG THE EAST COAST... ALL MODELS ARE A BIT TOO WEAK WITH THE
WEAKENING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AT H5 AND
ALL ARE ALSO TOO WEAK AT THE SFC... AS WELL AS A FEW DEGREES
TOO FAR TO THE WEST.
ELSEWHERE NO SGFNT INITIALIZATION ERRORS WERE NOTED.
MODEL TRENDS...
IN THE EAST... BOTH THE ETA AND GFS ARE TRENDING STRONGER AND
A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVES THRU THE MID-MS VLY
AND INTO THE MID-ATLC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS MORE
CONSISTENT.. BUT IS STILL SHOWING THIS TREND SOMEWHAT. THUS
BOTH MODELS ARE STRONGER AT THE SFC WITH THE ETA BEING JUST
A BIT FARTHER EAST WITH THE TRACK WHILE THE GFS IS A BIT
FARTHER WEST.
IN THE WEST... THE ETA HAS TRENDING QUITE A BIT STRONGER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAT APPROACHES THE CA COAST BY THE END OF DAY2
WHILE THE GFS IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
ALONG THE EAST COAST.. STILL SEEING SOME DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE ETA AND GFS WITH THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS AND LIFTS NEWD. THE ETA IS STILL FASTER... AND
WEAKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE SFC LOW. IT IS ALSO A BIT FARTHER
OFFSHORE. WHILE THE CANADIAN IS A BIT FASTER AND MORE LIKE THE
ETA.. THE NEW UKMET IS STRONGER AND SLOWER THAN EVEN THE
GFS. GIVEN THAT THE GFS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS SUPPORT FROM THE UKMET.. WE SUPPORT THE GFS.
THE COMPARED TO THE UKMET.. CANADIAN AND ECMWF.. THE GFS
DOES LOOK LIKE IT IS TOO FAR TO THE WEST WITH THE SFC LOW AND
PERHAPS ALSO A BIT TOO DEEP. THUS RECOMMEND BACKING OFF ON
THE ASSOC QPF SOMEWHAT AND NOT WRAPPING AS MUCH BACK TO
THE WEST AS FAR.
THE ETA IS NOW FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT
APPROACHES THE CA COAST TOWARDS THE END OF DAY2. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS ALONG THE WEST COAST.. WILL
RECOMMEND STICKING WITH THE GFS SOLN FOR NOW.
ROBSON
MODEL BIASES AT
http://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML
$$
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