So Where Is The Snow?

[Erica]

Nice post! And, the solar cycles also have a close relationship to major volcanic eruptions here on earth.

In 1989 a study was done by a several Russian scientists that linked geomagnetic activity to increased likelihood of major volcanic eruptions.

The findings stated that periods of high geomagnetic activity affect the Earth's tectonic plates by disrupting the Earth's magnetic field. This is similar to why the effects from this are seen in the high latitudes as compared to equatorial or sub-tropical regions. Usually, from a meteorological standpoint, high geomagnetic activity usually leads to a weaker Aleutian low, and stronger Icelandic low (Positive NAO/AO).

The eruptions of both Mt. St. Helens and El Chichon in 1980 and Mt. Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in the early 1990s, both coincided with a period of above normal geomagnetic activity.

So, all three things may in one way or another be related.

[Stephanie]

That is very interesting about the potential relationship between the solar activity, volcano eruptions and how it has affected our weather in the past.

I know that last year we had alot of solar flare activity - were there any volcanos that erupted since that time? How long had it been between the solar activity occurance and the eruptions of those volcanoes? Was it pretty immediate, or was it a little while later?

[Erica]

Actually, there was an episode earlier this year in late october and early November, but thankfully that quieted down or else alot of winter forecasts would have busted.

The major solar activity occured during the peak of solar cycle 22 in the 1999-00 winter, and again with a second peak during the 2001-02 winter (both were record and near record warm across most of the country).

Solar activity is manifested in two primary features, thse are 10.7cm radio flux, and geomagnetic activity.

In short, 10.7cm flux effects the mid latitudes and sub-tropical regions, since it forces a chemical reaction on ozone, which leads to more intense ridging across those areas. The effect is less on the polar region and high latitudes.

Geomagnetic activity on the other hand disrupts the Earth's magnetic field, and therfore is directed at the earths magnetic poles, so the greatest effect on normalized climate patterns is felt across the high latitudes. Usually high geomagnetic activity can lead to a weakening of the Aleutian low, and stronger icelandic low (especially in winter). This then leads to a mostly positive AO (Arctic oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), at times regardless of the ATC cycle.

There appears to also be a connection between it, volcanic activity and earthquakes (the geological side of it's effects). This is becuase the magnetic forcing disrupts the Earth's tectonic plates.

[Erica]

And to answer your question more specifically about volcanic activity, last year (2003) Did not feature as much activity as what the solar maximum winters (listed above) did.

In all truth, atmospheric volcanic ash and areosols remain quite low, and there wern't (at last to my knowledge, someone can correct me if I'm wrong) any major eruptions during that period. Although, it has been almost over 10 years since the last - climate altering, eruptions. So, we are well overdue.

[Stephanie]

I think we're overdue also with the volcano activity as well. Different people have posted a few months ago concerns about Yellowstone blowing because the earth's temperatures (I believe) have been rising, plus I think there's a definate "bubble" if you will in the landscape.

I didn't think that there had been any reported eruptions of volcanoes, but I could've missed it. It is an interesting concept.

[Stormsfury]

And to answer your question more specifically about volcanic activity, last year (2003) Did not feature as much activity as what the solar maximum winters (listed above) did.

In all truth, atmospheric volcanic ash and areosols remain quite low, and there wern't (at last to my knowledge, someone can correct me if I'm wrong) any major eruptions during that period. Although, it has been almost over 10 years since the last - climate altering, eruptions. So, we are well overdue.

As far as I know, no major eruptions have occurred of volcanoes, outside of fairly normal activity ... but those aren't pyroclastic flow and ash producers ...

[Superstorm]

Hey, BigEyedFish, you wouldn't happen to have seen the day 7 Euro, would you

[Chris the Weather Man]

IF 1816 happened here agian... Oh......... THAT Would be Stunning....... And, VERY Fascinating.......

[Anonymous]

Superstorm...have not seen it yet...will check it out.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I am hoping for March 1960.......