6z GFS says White Christmas for Texas

Yankeegirl · #21 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:13 pm

Are you kidding me? Snow, here? Well I will definately keep my fingers tightly crossed!

All I want for Christmas is some snow!

8-)

#22 Postby **wxguy25** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 6:50 pm

vbhoutex wrote:I'd put it at more like half the state, but who's getting picky?? If I am not mistaken using the 850mb as a go by the 534 line is usually the snow line or close to it. Feel free to correct me if someone knows better for sure.

Oh, and I am not holding my breath waiting for this to actually happen!!!

the 5400m thickness contour is usually best suited to give one a ROUGH ESTIMATE of where the rain/snow (ice) line may setup, but by no means exact due to possible thickness biasing, when you either have A) warm advection induced weak or shallow above freezing layer aloft, or warm air near the surface. BOTH of these instances could result in the 5400m thickness contour being unrepresentative of the actual precipitation type. Model soundings can assess p-type MUCH better.

I recommend BUFKIT. or RAOB software

Link to bufkit:

http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/resources/proj ... fkit4.html

RAOB demo

http://69.57.153.239/bin/raobdemo.exe

QCWx · #23 Postby **QCWx** » Thu Dec 09, 2004 8:16 pm

You can also use text soundings and meteograms to determine if the atmosphere is frozen all the way through. Bufkit is good for someone used to using it but it can be really confusing for a beginning amatuer.

Scorpion · #24 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 9:46 am

What? 3 inches of snow on the Gulf Coast? The GFS is on crack again :lol:

#25 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 1:03 pm

From what I'm reading from the NWS and looking at the modeling, it looks like we're in for a cold treat here in the deep south. Looks like a dry week, until next weekend when the precip gets going again. How cold will it be? Maybe only cool/ lets hope its cold..... We want snow...........................snow....................snow.................
:lol:

Yankeegirl · #26 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 1:40 pm

Well I just checked Accuweather's forecast for Christmas Eve and Day, and it is saying we have a high of like 65 on Christmas Day... I really like the sounds of the colder forecast much better than this one...

#27 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 2:14 pm

YankeeGirl wrote:Well I just checked Accuweather's forecast for Christmas Eve and Day, and it is saying we have a high of like 65 on Christmas Day... I really like the sounds of the colder forecast much better than this one...

65 Bahh Hummbugg!! Our local met out of New Orleans says we'll have to protect plants and pipes by Wednesday and Thursday of next week. Then getting significantly colder Christmas week. Thats what I like to hear........ It feels good to finally hear someone you trust say it. Just goes to show that we do have a lot of people who really know their stuff posting on this site. Been saying it all along. :grrr:

PTrackerLA · #28 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:53 pm

Well at least now we're into a cold weather pattern for the next week. Should see our first freezing temps of the year next week.

NWS Lake Charles Discussion:

THIS WILL BE THE STRONGEST FRONT OF THE SEASON SO FAR...BUT COLDER
AIR WILL INITIALLY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT A BIT SO MONDAY SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPS APPROACH UPPER 50 TO NEAR 60 AREAWIDE. NORTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE TEMPS NEAR FREEZING TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A
HARD FREEZE LIKELY WED AND PROBABLY THU MORNINGS. WED MORNING LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FREEZE FROM BPT-LCH-LFT WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING ON THU MORNING.

#29 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Sat Dec 11, 2004 5:40 pm

This is only my observation, and may be wrong by now. Has anyone noticed and I know this is not something we can depend on, but some models are indicating a return of the STJ around day 10 over the deep south and east Texas. Is this correct and will there be enough cold air around at that time to possibly support a winter event???? I realize its still 10 days out , but we have a lot of very intelligent posters on here. Would anyone like to give an analysis? Thanks to all in advance. Just something for me to think about . I've got a lot of time on my hands.
:bathroom:

WhiteShirt · #30 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:29 pm

Is there still a chance of snow around Christmas in the Houston area?

#31 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 8:36 pm

A chance? Yes.

A good chance? Unknown.

But for Houston, any "chance" is significant.

Way too far out to nail down details but colder and colder air will penetrate into Texas next week. Nearly all forecasters are agreeing on that.

The key will be the southern jet stream and how active it is.

Lots of good posters on this board and some great professional meteorologists, too. Check back often!!

WhiteShirt · #32 Postby **WhiteShirt** » Mon Dec 13, 2004 9:05 pm

Thanks, Portastorm. This site is very informative, and I have bookmarked it. I'm hoping for snow!

6z GFS says White Christmas for Texas

snow in Houston?

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