Snow threat for TX still alive?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The local mets here in the central plains have us back into the 50's by Sunday. I posted on this earlier-the GFS has a much colder sloution for next week than the EURO-the EURO develops a zonal pattern next week-the GFS had that last night, but on todays runs, have gone back to Friday's colder pattern next week with the possibility of my area seeing quite a storm next Thursday. This will flip flop back and forth for quite a while. I still would have to go with the EURO as the PNA dips below negative 1-we have to have a PNA between 1 and negative one for us to see good winter weather. I have no idea as I do not know nearly enough to look at teleconnections etc. The EURO does fit the pattern so far this month-quick cold blats then pretty quick moderations. At least we may have something to talk about!!
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cctxhurricanewatcher
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- Location: Corpus Christi, Texas
I got a feeling we are going to see some changes in the NWS forecasts accross Texas. Why? I've noticed that when the pattern is uncertain, (IE Arctic Fronts or Tropical systems) the NWS offfices down here are slower at updating their AFDs and zone forecasts. When it's a slam dunk, they have them down to a routine. As of 10:25, only two Texas NWS have updated their AFD's. Usually most of them have it done by 10:00 AM.
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Very cold arctic air mass gathering in northern Canada will be on the move by late this evening. Enjoy today and tomorrow because after that it is down hill very quickly. Will also be toying with the idea of winter precip. Thursday and Friday.
Strong warm advection today with gusty SSW winds will bring temps. into the mid 70's and even the upper 70's Tuesday.
Wednesday:
Strong arctic cold front crashes into the state with -45 F temps as its source air. Highs will be in the morning with temps. tumbling during the afternoon toward the low 40's and even upper 30's. Impressive cold air advection will push winds to wind advisory criteria of sustained 30mph with gust over 40. Wind chills head for the teens by late in the day. 850mb temps go below freezing by sunset and the 540 m thickness is over the Gulf by late Wednesday evening. There will be rain along and behind the front, but it should end before temps and the profile drop to freezing.
Thursday:
Models shows the mid and upper level trough hanging back into Mexico and SW TX with an active sub-tropical flow over the area. Arctic air mass will be firmly anchored over the area with highs struggling to get out of the 30's and that may be too warm given the clouds and continued cold air advection.
Thursday night:
Moisture advection takes place into the cold air and a short wave moves across the state. The air column is frozen from the surface upward so anything that falls will likely be frozen. Moisture continues to look limited, but there may be just enough to squeeze out some QPF over the region. Better chances look to be just to our south where the moisture is a little better. We don't dare say snow in S TX as it has not snowed in S TX since the late 1800's, but the models show winter precip there Thursday night and Christmas Eve morning. Will keep the Houston forecast as precip. for now and fine tune P-type with later models runs as well as any accumulation forecast.
Christmas Eve:
Short wave moves east by midday with any precip. ending by noon. Temps will be dependant on cloud cover and if there is any accumulation on the ground over the region. Will likely see highs again in the 30's.
Christmas Day:
Arctic high is displaced eastward by approaching westerlies with a warming trend. Highs should be able to get back into the 50's after morning lows in the mid 20's.
This is an extremely low confidence forecast both with precip. chances, temps, and Precip. type.
Today: sunny and warm with highs in the low 70's. S winds 25-35mph and gusty.
Tuesday: mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70's. S wind 25-30mph and gusty.
Wednesday: cloudy and turning much colder with a 50% chance of rain. Temps. in the mid 60's early falling into the 40's during the day. S winds shifting to the NNW and increasing to near 25-35mph and gusty. Wind chills falling into the teens and 20's.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold. North winds 20-30mph and gusty. Lows in the upper 20's to near 30.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30's to near 40, a slight chance of precipitation late. N winds 20-25mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy and cold with a chance of precipitation. Lows in the mid to upper 20's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a chance of precipitation early. Highs in the mid to upper 30's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Day: mostly sunny with lows in the mid 20's and highs in the mid 50's.
Jeff L
Strong warm advection today with gusty SSW winds will bring temps. into the mid 70's and even the upper 70's Tuesday.
Wednesday:
Strong arctic cold front crashes into the state with -45 F temps as its source air. Highs will be in the morning with temps. tumbling during the afternoon toward the low 40's and even upper 30's. Impressive cold air advection will push winds to wind advisory criteria of sustained 30mph with gust over 40. Wind chills head for the teens by late in the day. 850mb temps go below freezing by sunset and the 540 m thickness is over the Gulf by late Wednesday evening. There will be rain along and behind the front, but it should end before temps and the profile drop to freezing.
Thursday:
Models shows the mid and upper level trough hanging back into Mexico and SW TX with an active sub-tropical flow over the area. Arctic air mass will be firmly anchored over the area with highs struggling to get out of the 30's and that may be too warm given the clouds and continued cold air advection.
Thursday night:
Moisture advection takes place into the cold air and a short wave moves across the state. The air column is frozen from the surface upward so anything that falls will likely be frozen. Moisture continues to look limited, but there may be just enough to squeeze out some QPF over the region. Better chances look to be just to our south where the moisture is a little better. We don't dare say snow in S TX as it has not snowed in S TX since the late 1800's, but the models show winter precip there Thursday night and Christmas Eve morning. Will keep the Houston forecast as precip. for now and fine tune P-type with later models runs as well as any accumulation forecast.
Christmas Eve:
Short wave moves east by midday with any precip. ending by noon. Temps will be dependant on cloud cover and if there is any accumulation on the ground over the region. Will likely see highs again in the 30's.
Christmas Day:
Arctic high is displaced eastward by approaching westerlies with a warming trend. Highs should be able to get back into the 50's after morning lows in the mid 20's.
This is an extremely low confidence forecast both with precip. chances, temps, and Precip. type.
Today: sunny and warm with highs in the low 70's. S winds 25-35mph and gusty.
Tuesday: mostly cloudy with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid 70's. S wind 25-30mph and gusty.
Wednesday: cloudy and turning much colder with a 50% chance of rain. Temps. in the mid 60's early falling into the 40's during the day. S winds shifting to the NNW and increasing to near 25-35mph and gusty. Wind chills falling into the teens and 20's.
Wednesday night: cloudy and cold. North winds 20-30mph and gusty. Lows in the upper 20's to near 30.
Thursday: cloudy and cold with highs in the upper 30's to near 40, a slight chance of precipitation late. N winds 20-25mph and gusty.
Thursday night: cloudy and cold with a chance of precipitation. Lows in the mid to upper 20's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Eve: cloudy with a chance of precipitation early. Highs in the mid to upper 30's. North winds 10-15mph.
Christmas Day: mostly sunny with lows in the mid 20's and highs in the mid 50's.
Jeff L
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Portastorm
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Portastorm
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- Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
- Location: Round Rock, TX
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Real curious to see the afternoon forecasts today out of NWS offices in Texas. GFS on 6z and 12z runs appear a little warmer than the 0z run. But San Angelo NWS office in its late morning discussion hinted about going colder with guidance for Thurs-Fri.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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Portastorm
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jeff wrote:Portastorm wrote:Jeff, I assume your forecast is for southeast Texas, correct?
Yes. for SE TX
Other areas may see frozen precip as well including central TX and LA
Once again, I enjoy your discussions and glad you are aboard S2K! Can't wait to see your take later today or tonight on what the rest of the week holds for us.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
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cctxhurricanewatcher
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- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 8:53 pm
- Location: Corpus Christi, Texas
Text book example here. This writer goes with the ETA because he admits it is better with Arctic airmasses but in other discussion from this office, the GFS was the baby to go with over the weekend. But then this writer after going with ETA for the temps Weds thru Saturday accepts the GFS solution on the warmup on Sunday. If the GFS is wrong on the depth of the air in begining of the forecast, wouldn't it be wrong at the end too?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WILL
BE ON TAP AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PERSIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. IT WILL
DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER...BUT JUST WAIT
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY!!
THE GFS AND ETA ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FIRST
INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGENT IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN. WILL GO WITH THE ETA ON
TEMPS SINCE THIS MODEL HAS A HISTORY OF HANDLING ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR NGM. THE ETA IS THE COLDEST OF THE
THREE. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
ON WEDNESDAY ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDES THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC. MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN TEMPS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THUS
SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE U.S. BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIRMASS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BROAD TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGENT ON
THE PCPN FCST. GFS GENERATES LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWFA WHILE THE
DGEX KEEPS THE PCPN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FCST FOR FRIDAY SINCE THE GFS SOLUTION 4 TO 7 DAYS OUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO FLIP-FLOP. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
215 PM CST MON DEC 20 2004
.DISCUSSION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES.
CLEAR SKIES AND SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WILL
BE ON TAP AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PERSIST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. IT WILL
DEFINITELY NOT FEEL LIKE THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER...BUT JUST WAIT
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY!!
THE GFS AND ETA ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE TIMING OF THE FIRST
INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR. THE FRONT WILL ENTER THE HILL COUNTRY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND DRIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGENT IN THE AMOUNT OF
COOLING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PCPN. WILL GO WITH THE ETA ON
TEMPS SINCE THIS MODEL HAS A HISTORY OF HANDLING ARCTIC AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS BETTER THAN THE GFS OR NGM. THE ETA IS THE COLDEST OF THE
THREE. WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE ETA/GFS FOR PCPN TUESDAY NIGHT
THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING. SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EXTREME EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE DEEPEST.
ON WEDNESDAY ONLY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED AS GULF MOISTURE
OVERRIDES THE COLD AIRMASS AT THE SFC. MOISTURE WILL BE SCOURED OUT
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WHEN TEMPS BECOME COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THUS
SNOW HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FCST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF OVER
THE U.S. BY THURSDAY ALLOWING A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIRMASS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BROAD TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS TEXAS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE DIVERGENT ON
THE PCPN FCST. GFS GENERATES LIGHT PCPN ACROSS THE CWFA WHILE THE
DGEX KEEPS THE PCPN OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY
FCST FOR FRIDAY SINCE THE GFS SOLUTION 4 TO 7 DAYS OUT HAS A TENDENCY
TO FLIP-FLOP. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF AXIS AND THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD.
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