Another Arctic Attack looming?

[aggiecutter]

The 18z operational GFS, ETA, and 12z EURO dont have any sign of cold air coming into Texas for atleast the next 10 days. Actually, all 3 models have it quite warm in the southern plains during that period. I guess the local mets in OKC and Ft. Worth think the arctic air will press the height lines this weekend.

[jeff]

Models are warm for the next 5-15 days. However the pattern setup is favorable for southward movement of arctic again mainly after Jan 1st. This event may be short lived and more shallow than the event we just went through and the models may be completely missing the air mass due to the shallow nature. With that said, the shallow air masses tend to modify very quickly.

Fairly active SJS also with a split flow, if we get cold air down south it could get interesting with potential icing in some loactions.

[sertorius]

The NWS out of Topeka hinted today at some frozen precip for next Sunday/Monday (of course any type of precip would be great as we have gone 3 weeks w/out anything here!!)-They to are looking at the Arctic High bleeding in-My guess and it is a very uneducated one, is that in the central plains, we will at least retyurn to more seasonal norms next week. The GFS has had for several runs now and fairly good storm for us mid next week. Who knows-but, it is def. worth watching next week-the models could be missing something and then just blow up later in the week. The GFS has been alluding to the cool down next week for some time, but as with everything this winter, it is in and out in a week.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

The NWS AFDs this AM at most NWS offices in Texas are on board for something of Arctic orgin coming down next week. They seemed to be on board earlier this time and more concerned than they were for the pre-Christmas outbreak. Maybe that is a bad omen for us that like the colder stuff.

[Guest]

Models are warm for the next 5-15 days. However the pattern setup is favorable for southward movement of arctic again mainly after Jan 1st. This event may be short lived and more shallow than the event we just went through and the models may be completely missing the air mass due to the shallow nature. With that said, the shallow air masses tend to modify very quickly.

Fairly active SJS also with a split flow, if we get cold air down south it could get interesting with potential icing in some loactions.

Models are Warm for who? TX and the SE sure. (EARLY ON) however Rockies, Central/northern Plains, Midwest, Great lakes and upper OV along with the NE (NYC North) i dont think so. Yeah it will warm up briefly by the weekend but come next week most of these areas should see at or below normal temps and very good chances of wintry weather with perhaps a chance of a sig winterstorm in the Plains/Midwest/Lakes/upper OV and N.NE next week.
IF the trends continue i have been watching with the models and a few other things most notably the set up in the Pacific (Which the models as you well know have a hard time with ) then come midmonth and later alot of the country (Especially east of the rockies) will be feeling the artic airmasses again and perhaps even colder then what we have already seen. Then add a very active SJS as you noted (and i agree with) and we once again may be talking about some big time weather events again for just about everyone from the Plains east. But first it will be the westcoast/Rockies who gets in on some action for the next week or 2.

This is setting up to be one of those rare winters where everyone will share in on the cold and snow along with the storms IMHO.

In the near term those in the OV that got dumped on should be on the lookout for potential flooding by the weekend into next week as a bit of rain and warmer temps are expected late this week into the weekend.

For here i will probably lose all of my snowcover by Saturday. Should return though late in the weekend going into next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

As Posted in Another Thread:


"I think what we saw between the 22rd and 25th will play out again by mid January only this time for a longer period of artic cold (highs in the mid 20's for the northern part of TX and around 32 for the southern part of TX) lasting at least 5 to 7 days with a good chance for snow across much of the state of TX.

The reason for the longer period of cold will be do to a stronger Rex Block over the Pacific coast and a more wide spread snow pack over the Northern U.S. (We will see the McFarland Effect again).

I also believe that this may be the pattern for the rest of winter, a very cold period followed by a warm up and then another very cold period that will bring heavy snow across the Midwest and Tenn/Ohio Valley as well as the deep south and Northeast with waves of low presure coming out of the Rockies to the north and upper lows forming in the GOM and working along the Southern Coast.

Winter has only started and much of Texas has already seen some snow, and it won't be the last either."

North Texas Winter Forecast
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=46802

[CaptinCrunch]

Thursday and Friday of next week look to be very interesting:

[wx247]

I wouldn't trust a model that far in advance.

[CaptinCrunch]

I wouldn't trust a model that far in advance.

That's what everybody was saying about the models 2 weeks ago when they showed the Artic airmass and the snow for TX, S-TX and S-LA. for last week.

Boy did those people eat a CROW sandwich on that call.

Remember what I said about the models, when people stop believeing in the models thats when they (the models) will prove you wrong.

[Portastorm]

I wouldn't trust a model that far in advance.

That's what everybody was saying about the models 2 weeks ago when they showed the Artic airmass and the snow for TX, S-TX and S-LA. for last week.

Boy did those people eat a CROW sandwich on that call.

Remember what I said about the models, when people stop believeing in the models thats when they (the models) will prove you wrong.

Ironically enough the GFS did a very good job in the short range on the snow event along the TX coast and the ETA did not. If I recall correctly, the ETA was much drier-looking than the GFS. I checked out almost every run for two days, desperately hoping for a possibility of snow up here in Austin!!

Captain, let's see how consistent the modeling is about next week's potential Arctic blast. If we see a few days of similar runs from more than one medium-range model than I would say ... "yup, something's coming."

[KatDaddy]

Things will get interesting again toward the end of next week. There is currently a massive storm system pounding California and you can bet it will be bring down very cold Arctic air behind it. Now you add an active subtropical Jet and bingo another snow threat for the South.

In 1973 it snow 3 times in Houston.

[WhiteShirt]

Is there a possibility of snow in Houston with this next arctic front?

[CaptinCrunch]

The GFS was pretty good on the 10 day range as well for the Artic air and wintery precip which most of the time the GFS past day 5+1 is a crap shot at best. But the GFS LR models did pretty well giving it's past record.

[yoda]

12z GFS says GOODBYE to that... 216hr 500 mb heights show HUGE rise in heights over East as 570 DM line passes from DC to NYC...

[Yankeegirl]

Havent we dont this before? Is this Je Ja Vu? (how ever ya spell it)... ? I love just having the thought that we might get some more snow here in Houston... I am going to keep my mouth shut for now though... I was telling friends that it was going to snow on Christmas Eve, and no one believed me, then they all called and said the yankee was right... I am not going to mention it yet, till it gets a little closer... I would like to be 2 for 2... lol... And if I am wrong, they wont let me live it down... So Make It Snow!!

[vbhoutex]

Is there a possibility of snow in Houston with this next arctic front?

Not in the near term from what little I have seen of the models, but with 2 months of "winter" to go here in Houston, it becomes a distinct possibility.

[sertorius]

I still think next week bears watching for the central plains-esp. for the potential of an ice storm-The GFS and MRF (I know-I don't trust it either-but is something to discuss) do show some good precip for this area next Wed. with temps close to freezing-both have had this for the past 5-6 days on most the daily runs i.e. it has not lost it-the EURO on the other hand is much warmer-we shall see-I don't buy anything yet accept that we may cool back to seasonal norms next week after a week of Spring-it just does bear watching-If I had to forcast and put out a product, I would prob. go with the EURO but I don't think you can just discount the GFS with the consistency out of hand-also, the PNA is rising to about negative 1 or so by next week-when that happens, we usually get a week of winter weather here in the central plains-all this aside (and I am a Latin teacher so do I really know?? ) at least it seems my weather next week will be more interesting than the past month-of course I said that about the last arctic front and all I got was a 36 hour cold snap and some high clouds!!!
PS: If this seems to ramble, I'm trying to type this while keeping two boys, ages 18 months and 5, from destroying the house!!!

[aggiecutter]

The pattern wont change until around mid-month. There might be an intrusion or two of modified arctic air for a day or so and then it'll warm right back-up before the next storm system comes along. The Northern and Central plains, along with the West, will be the focus of winter weather for the next couple weeks.

[yoda]

The pattern wont change until around mid-month. There might be an intrusion or two of modified arctic air for a day or so and then it'll warm right back-up before the next storm system comes along. The Northern and Central plains, along with the West, will be the focus of winter weather for the next couple weeks.

Totally agree and good post.

[TS Zack]

The ETA was perfect on the how much Cold Air would be here, but did horrible with the precip.

The GFS did horrible on the Cold Air and perfect on the precip.

Now if somebody would have taken a consensus of those two models like that then everyone would just say that person wanted snow.

This winter will be like this, a ridge build in the East with a Pacific Trough then like that it will flip to a Rex Blocking in the West with a large Trough in the East.

All we need to do is get the PV timed right with that trough in the East and then we may need to watch out.