OK! Where did the WINTER go???

[CaptinCrunch]

Well it seems that allot of people in the Central Plains and the NE have been talking smack about Mother Nature and Old Man Winter which has turned them off from making any type of a visit until now, if you look at the Central Plains today it seems that from Northern OK. to Sioux Falls ND. that Mother Nature and Old Man Winter are starting to really piss people off with lot's of Ice rather than nice fluffy snow. (It's NOT nice to talk bad about Mother Nature)

Now I know we all want some colder weather and a few more chances at some wintery precip, but lets not upset those who can help us out with that. When Old Man Winter came to visit us at Christmas he said that he was planning another trip south sometime around the middle of January and that he may stay for week or so this time and that he really enjoyed the Gulf Coast and hopes to make it that far South again.

[Scorpion]

At least everybody is warm instead of just Florida. I hate it when the whole nation is freezing and we're in the 70's.

[vbhoutex]

At least everybody is warm instead of just Florida. I hate it when the whole nation is freezing and we're in the 70's.

I don't know whether to say WAH! WAH! WAH! or just tell you to move North!! j/k

We're moaning and groaning here in Houston too!! running the damn AC in January is just freaking ridiculous!!

[Stephanie]

I washed my car on New Year's Day. It was a beautiful weekend and it was pretty strange to see robin...

[snowflake]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
930 AM CST MON JAN 3 2005


COLD WEATHER WILL BE ON THE WAY............ONE DAY.
VERY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO ALASKA WELL AFTER THE
PRESENT EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS SHOULD SEND A TRUCK
LOAD OF COOL AIR SOUTHWARD TO VISIT FOR A FEW DAYS. BUT THEN AGAIN
THIS IS WAY IN THE FUTURE.

[CaptinCrunch]

Accweather's forecast as of 1:30pm, however their forecast are not very Reliable!!


Friday 1/14
Rain
High 50° F

Friday Night 1/14
Rain and freezing rain late
Low 29° F

Saturday 1/15
Rain, some ice mixed in early
High 47° F

Saturday Night 1/15
A chance for ice late
Low 27° F

Sunday 1/16
Rain, some ice early; cold
High 45° F

Sunday Night 1/16
Slippery late; ice
Low 26° F

Monday 1/17
Rain, some ice early; cold
High 45° F

Monday Night 1/17
Cold with snow, ice and rain
Low 26° F

[CaptinCrunch]

THE COLD FRONT NOW LIES ALONG A SHERMAN TO DENTON TO CISCO LINE AND
STILL IS VERY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH. THE RUC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT
IDENTIFIES THIS FRONT DUE TO THE VERY SHALLOW COLD LAYER (LIKELY
LESS THAN 500 FEET). THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 10-15 DEGREE SPREAD IN
LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL MIX OUT THE COOLER AIR BY MORNING AND FRONT
WILL RETREAT NORTH OF THE RED RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON. APPROACHING
UPPER LOW WILL ALSO LIFT THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER TOMORROW WITH SWLY 850 FLOW AIDING IN DEVELOPMENT OF A CAP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL BE UTILIZED.

MODELS ARE SHOWING VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPILLING INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND COLD FRONT THEN SURGES SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL BE A STRONG FRONT WITH TEMPS DROPPING 20 DEGREES AFTER FROPA.
GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RETURN AREAWIDE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
AS THE COLD AIR ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SETS UP
OVERRUNNING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP
WILL END BEFORE FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS ARRIVE IN THE NW CWA
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY GIVEN ETA PROGS. GFS
SHOWS ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ETA IS DRY. HAVE LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY BECAUSE OF
THIS...BUT STILL DO EXPECT ABUNDANT CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH
HIGH TEMPS STUCK IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AIRMASS MODERATES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DUE TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. HAVE
SHOWED TEMPS ABOVE MEX/CLIMO BY THE WEEKEND AND KEPT FORECAST DRY

[Brent]

Ack. I hate this weather and outside of a brief reprieve Thursday/Friday, it looks like it's here to stay.

[CaptinCrunch]

CaptinCrunch wrote:

Posted: Thu Dec 30, 2004 9:33 am Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As the west coast storm systems move eastward over the next week or so the central plains from N-Dakota down to Texas will see wetter weather and the central and northern plains, GL/Tenn/OV areas will see an increase in the snow cover just as the patteren change takes hold by Mid-January allowing the artic front's to maintain their dence artic air without much lost.

The Ice thats falling across the Northern States will be replaced with snow by next week across the central Plains and will spread eastward and allow the colder air to move back in over the E and SE by mid month.

The LR models are showing signs of cross polor flow returning buy said time frame and the possibility of a Rex Block reforming off the Pacific Coast, this will allow the PV to slide back down over Southern half of the North Pole into Northern Canada setting up what I think will be a return of the "Mcfarland Effect" with sub-zero temps returning to the Central Plains.

Like I have been saying that by mid January the pattern will start to change to a colder winter pattern and that LR models showed signs that the PV will move south of the north pole and park over Northern Canada.

Well here is Jan 14 GFS MRF and it shows the PV has indeed setup over the Northern Hudson Bay and will enhance the AJ to become active across the Eastern 2/3rds of the country and with a active SJS the snow geese will indeed get what they have longed for.



The ECMWF NH shows the same thing.