Is the 12z Euro out yet?

[krysof]

Good because the gfs is letting me down, accuweather isn't saying anything in the long range forecasts or weather.com.

[yoda]

Good because the gfs is letting me down, accuweather isn't saying anything in the long range forecasts or weather.com.

Don't look at the GFS until its w/in 84 hours of the storm.

[wxguy25]

is that 1-3 inches or feet of snow?

1-3 FEET.

Yes. Feet.

Whats also GREAT for DCA-PHL is the fact that the SLP area gets hung up near the VA capes as it bombs out. this is PERFECT position for those cities.

it was the same case in 1996.



BUT the thing is here the STJ s/w would have to come out ahead of the PJ s/w in oder for there to be a major phasing episode. Otherwise the PJ s/w will crush the STJ energy the northern stream features will remain dominant. So on that front I agree w/ Purdue.

[krysof]

Your right about that. The gfs changes (snaps finger) like that and accuweather and weather.com use their info from the gfs. Sometimes the gfs is showing a huge snowstorm and I believe it because I want that to happen but I really know, that by the next model things will change and that's what has happened.

[yoda]

Wxguy... do you believe the EC 12z run could happen? I like your analysis, and it has been said on another board that this run would give a potential blizzard to the MA by a few mets...

[wxguy25]

Wxguy... do you believe the EC 12z run could happen? I like your analysis, and it has been said on another board that this run would give a potential blizzard to the MA by a few mets...

Well lets put it this way. I'm not one who hypes and likes to create mass hysteria amount the east coast snow weenies BUT if there is is the potential for something big you bet I'm going to be the first to say so. I always take a SUBJECTIVE approach to forecasting major east coast snowstorms; first looking for what problems could prevent such an event from occurring before crowing BLIZZARD.

Yes the 12z EURO would be an out and out Blizzard from VA to Boston. w/ probably the heavies totals from ERN VA through, MD, DE, NJ, E PA, NYC, LI, SNE.

I want to get a chance to view the higher res graphics first before i try to give you an idea of where the EURO has the heaviest snow, but based on the Accumulated precip loop that BL03 provided for us (thanks) I was able to make the assertion given above.

I want to see where the EURO is placing the best WAA / LLVL convergence, LLJ, and upper jet dynamics.

I'll say this IF the current Northward trend holds then i strongly suggest that you go buy Snowmobile b/c you'll need it to get around the Beltway in DC.

[Stormsfury]

Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Well I will have to wait until later on this afternoon to see Raleighwx Surface maps and stuff he likes to post. Right now I have no idea about surface temps. But since this is a CAD situation and most models do a terrible job on CAD strength and such I would not be suprised to see surface temps continue to be indicated lower.

I also heard an interesting suggestion from wow just a few minutes ago.... and it went like this...

Comparing this run to the 0z, you can see that the trough has shifted about 100 miles WEST, thus giving the opportunity for a full phase and an outright blizzard by the time it hits the east coast. Should it shift to the west agan, this could make push the surface low into the GOM, since it would have more room to dig further--similar to Jan 96. Just throwing that up in the air.

Now this would be very interesting. Because then we would go from a Miller B to a Miller A which is more of a classic Winter Storm for the Deep South. Now this would be really exciting but it is just 1 run. As of right now the runs will flip somewhat this far out. The judgment time as stated by HM on another site is going to be around Thursday when the models will have a better handle on the 50/50 low

Keep hoping for the best my friend.

PS: GO FALCONS

The storm is/will be a Miller B scenario, irregularless ... however, with Miller B's, remember, this occurs with a transferrance of energy, and again, with the further south solution you spoke about WRT to the CAD strength (yes, you're correct, the models don't do well with, plus it's also an arctic air mass) ... plain and simple, the SLP CANNOT penetrate a wedge of cold air, and is forced to go around and/or redevelop further downstream (w/the best baroclinicity, usually lying along the thermal gradient along the Gulf Stream), and this case is no different ...

The 12z ECMWF is freaking screaming WOOF WOOF!!!

SF

[Stormsfury]

Good because the gfs is letting me down, accuweather isn't saying anything in the long range forecasts or weather.com.

The GFS past 84 hours is about as useful as Anna Nicole Smith competing on Jeopardy!!

SF

[yoda]

Wxguy... do you believe the EC 12z run could happen? I like your analysis, and it has been said on another board that this run would give a potential blizzard to the MA by a few mets...

Well lets put it this way. I'm not one who hypes and likes to create mass hysteria amount the east coast snow weenies BUT if there is is the potential for something big you bet I'm going to be the first to say so. I always take a SUBJECTIVE approach to forecasting major east coast snowstorms; first looking for what problems could prevent such an event from occurring before crowing BLIZZARD.

Yes the 12z EURO would be an out and out Blizzard from VA to Boston. w/ probably the heavies totals from ERN VA through, MD, DE, NJ, E PA, NYC, LI, SNE.

I want to get a chance to view the higher res graphics first before i try to give you an idea of where the EURO has the heaviest snow, but based on the Accumulated precip loop that BL03 provided for us (thanks) I was able to make the assertion given above.

I want to see where the EURO is placing the best WAA / LLVL convergence, LLJ, and upper jet dynamics.

I'll say this IF the current Northward trend holds then i strongly suggest that you go buy Snowmobile b/c you'll need it to get around the Beltway in DC.

Excellent post wxguy and THANK YOU!! Hmmm.. now where is my snowmobile...

[Anonymous]

I would think if the euro is correct, 1 or 2 feet can accumulate. Which model is the best with handling snowstorms or precipitation?

Euro is.

So the newer EURO is saying that inland cities like nyc-phl-dc will get 1-3? And the EURO is good at handling snowstorms?

[JenyEliza]

Hey there Wnghs! I'm hoping the Falcons can pull it off too buddy! I'm a Panthers fan here, but since they didn't make it, i'll pull for the next best team! lol.......As per your map, is this indicative of snow in your area and mine?

Well I will have to wait until later on this afternoon to see Raleighwx Surface maps and stuff he likes to post. Right now I have no idea about surface temps. But since this is a CAD situation and most models do a terrible job on CAD strength and such I would not be suprised to see surface temps continue to be indicated lower.

I also heard an interesting suggestion from wow just a few minutes ago.... and it went like this...

Comparing this run to the 0z, you can see that the trough has shifted about 100 miles WEST, thus giving the opportunity for a full phase and an outright blizzard by the time it hits the east coast. Should it shift to the west agan, this could make push the surface low into the GOM, since it would have more room to dig further--similar to Jan 96. Just throwing that up in the air.

Now this would be very interesting. Because then we would go from a Miller B to a Miller A which is more of a classic Winter Storm for the Deep South. Now this would be really exciting but it is just 1 run. As of right now the runs will flip somewhat this far out. The judgment time as stated by HM on another site is going to be around Thursday when the models will have a better handle on the 50/50 low

Keep hoping for the best my friend.

PS: GO FALCONS

The storm is/will be a Miller B scenario, irregularless ... however, with Miller B's, remember, this occurs with a transferrance of energy, and again, with the further south solution you spoke about WRT to the CAD strength (yes, you're correct, the models don't do well with, plus it's also an arctic air mass) ... plain and simple, the SLP CANNOT penetrate a wedge of cold air, and is forced to go around and/or redevelop further downstream (w/the best baroclinicity, usually lying along the thermal gradient along the Gulf Stream), and this case is no different ...

The 12z ECMWF is freaking screaming WOOF WOOF!!!

SF

But the question is...who is that big bad dog barking at?? --ie, who are the lucky snow recipient(s)?

[yoda]

I would think if the euro is correct, 1 or 2 feet can accumulate. Which model is the best with handling snowstorms or precipitation?

Euro is.

So the newer EURO is saying that inland cities like nyc-phl-dc will get 1-3? And the EURO is good at handling snowstorms?

IF it is correct yes. Read Wxguy's post above.

[Anonymous]

I LIKE....With CADDING TO.....



MUHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA

And the Falcons vs Eagles will be in a Blizzard possibly if the Euro is Right.

UKMET agrees in Upper Set Up but not Synoptically.

Yea man i am from philly and the birds would win if there was a blizzard!!! That would be the greatest game ever if there was a blizzard next sunday!

[Stormsfury]

I would think if the euro is correct, 1 or 2 feet can accumulate. Which model is the best with handling snowstorms or precipitation?

Euro is.

So the newer EURO is saying that inland cities like nyc-phl-dc will get 1-3? And the EURO is good at handling snowstorms?

It is WAY too early to throw around snowfall amounts, especially FEET as an official forecast ... right now, we're speculating ACCORDING to what the ECMWF depicts... do NOT take actual depictions at this time as a forecast.

The pattern is there for something significant, but it's also many days away.

The ECMWF is the best overall model WRT to the MR (medium range) ... verification scores time and time again excel vs. the other globals (GGEM, GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS).

SF

[wxguy25]

I LIKE....With CADDING TO.....



MUHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA

And the Falcons vs Eagles will be in a Blizzard possibly if the Euro is Right.

UKMET agrees in Upper Set Up but not Synoptically.

Yea man i am from philly and the birds would win if there was a blizzard!!! That would be the greatest game ever if there was a blizzard next sunday!

The EAGLES suck! GO ATLANTA!!

[krysof]

Wow a game in a blizzard. I hope so.

[Stormsfury]

But the question is...who is that big bad dog barking at?? --ie, who are the lucky snow recipient(s)?

One thing with Miller B's is that SOMEONE always gets screwed (b/c of a dry slot w/ the transferrance of energy) ... I'm still not exactly sold on just how far north the primary low goes before the 2nd low (secondary) explodes offshore ... the 500mb pattern argues for a further south primary, before the secondary takes over, IMHO ...

SF

[Brent]

I LIKE....With CADDING TO.....



MUHAHAHAHHHAHAHAHA

And the Falcons vs Eagles will be in a Blizzard possibly if the Euro is Right.

UKMET agrees in Upper Set Up but not Synoptically.

Yea man i am from philly and the birds would win if there was a blizzard!!! That would be the greatest game ever if there was a blizzard next sunday!

The EAGLES suck! GO ATLANTA!!

[DLI2k5]

Is this showing any signs of giving the midlands of SC through Charlotte, some good snowfall as far as what you see now? Trying to take in what you folks are saying and interpreting it.

[jkt21787]

Thought this was intresting...from NWS Paducah:

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM. THE GFS DRAGS THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WHICH KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...BUT NOT SURE HOW FAR IT WILL GO RIGHT NOW. WENT WITH THE PARTY LINE/HPC AND ACCEPTED THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION. THIS COULD RESULT IN A DECENT SNOW STORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG AHEAD OF THE SURFACE SYSTEM...SO PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE IN DOUBT...ESPECIALLY IF GFS TRACK IS CLOSE. WILL MENTION ALL SNOW IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE. WILL HAVE LINGERING 20 TO 30 POP FOR ALL SNOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NO MAJOR COLD AIRMASS IN SIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT SEE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN BEHIND THE SYSTEM...UNLESS THERE IS DECENT SNOW COVER.