Wxblog update...making sense of the model mess

#21 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:Excellent discussion as always wxguy

Thanks, Luis.

Matt31388 · #22 Postby **Matt31388** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:50 pm

First, the local mets were excited about this weekend now its just giving us a mix of rain and snow here in Eastern KY, and Weather.com is calling for just rain. Is it too early for me to be disappointed or do you think all I will get is mainly rain?

Mike2002 · #23 Postby **Mike2002** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:51 pm

Sorry to nag you guys but I'm in Richmond. Local mets are saying snow to rain back to a quick period of snow. Does this go with what you guys are saying??

Chris the Weather Man · #24 Postby **Chris the Weather Man** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:51 pm

Sounds good.... 12" or more for the NW of NYC?

I know, I know, TOO Damn early.... But overall, Great Analysis... The 50/50 Low, will have Big impacts on the track, yes?

#25 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:51 pm

Matt31388 wrote:First, the local mets were excited about this weekend now its just giving us a mix of rain and snow here in Eastern KY, and Weather.com is calling for just rain. Is it too early for me to be disappointed or do you think all I will get is mainly rain?

Well its not looking good for heavy snow. I will give you that.

#26 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:52 pm

Mike2002 wrote:Sorry to nag you guys but I'm in Richmond. Local mets are saying snow to rain back to a quick period of snow. Does this go with what you guys are saying??

Don't get your hopes up in RIC unless the data starts coming around to the 18z GFS (which In my view is little more than drivel)

#27 Postby **Stephanie** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:52 pm

Thanks again for your insight!!

Website · #28 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:52 pm

Matt31388 wrote:First, the local mets were excited about this weekend now its just giving us a mix of rain and snow here in Eastern KY, and Weather.com is calling for just rain. Is it too early for me to be disappointed or do you think all I will get is mainly rain?

Saturday is Rain/Wind, Sunday:

#29 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:53 pm

Chris the Weather Man wrote:Sounds good.... 12" or more for the NW of NYC?

I know, I know, TOO Damn early.... But overall, Great Analysis... The 50/50 Low, will have Big impacts on the track, yes?

Perhaps. Even IF liquid amounts remain below 1.50" I think that some areas across E PA, NJ could eek out those totals b/c of ratios but just take it one step at a time and err on the side of caution for now,

Fodie77 · #30 Postby **Fodie77** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:56 pm

At this VERY early stage, wxguy, what ratios do you think are possible with this storm. Do you think it will be the typical 10:1?

JenyEliza · #31 Postby **JenyEliza** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:57 pm

JenyEliza wrote:I have a (completely) novice question, so forgive me if I appear to be asking something stupid.

But...here goes anyway.....

Check out this satellite image, and note the plume of moisture from as far west as Baja, passing over Mexico, and into southern Texas.

Seems to me, that this could be moving eastward and might possibly meet up with the storm that's coming this weekend. Is this possible? Has anyone else noticed this? IF this were to happen, how would this impact the coming events? Any thoughts?

Wxguy....I posted this yesterday in a different thread...and I have to ask (after reading your newest discussion here)

This is where I posted the above: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=56091

Is this part of what's messing up your ability to nail down the predictions for this weekend? Did I (way inadvertently) catch something early? (probably not...but woo hoo if I did).

Jeny

BTW...the satellite map looked different yesterday (obviously).

#32 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:58 pm

Fodie77 wrote:At this VERY early stage, wxguy, what ratios do you think are possible with this storm. Do you think it will be the typical 10:1?

Higher possibly given the arctic air and other factors.

#33 Postby **Dave C** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 8:59 pm

Excellent discussion, one of our local mets was mentioning that 2 storm solution and I couldn't believe he was accepting that so early in the game. This certainly is going to be an educating experience watching the system evolve the next couple days... this is when forecasters really earn their pay!LOL

Tip · #34 Postby **Tip** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 9:00 pm

FYI - WXguy, here's a snipet I thought you find interesting from San Antonio/Austin Tx AFD and their thinking on the southern stream energy.

ALL MODELS INDICATE THAT
CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE EAST BY GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING IT FULLY
ACROSS TEXAS WHILE PHASING IT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE, THE ETA AND UKMET SHEAR THE TOP OFF WITH A PART REMAINING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO, AND THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS LOSE CONTACT WITH THE SHORT-WAVE AND KEEP IT FULLY IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BOTH COMBOS THAT KEEP THE LOW INTACT HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT, ALTHOUGH WILL TREND TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF COMBO.

Stormsfury · #35 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 9:20 pm

wxguy25 wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:wxguy, which model do you think we should be focusing on come friday when the storm is on our doorstep?

NAM, MM5, WRF, SREF.

MESOETA within 33 hours, radars, and satellite ... I really believe the models are clearly underprogging the wedge ... and again (like on my website update, albeit brief, South Carolina has as problem with other things than JUST a cold rain ...)

Stormsfury · #36 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 9:23 pm

Furthermore, some of our western observers/mets are noting that the baja ULL is stronger than being analyzed, and again, lack of data at this time maybe causing the models to misplay (especially the damn GFS) on the amount of phasing and the amount of energy the ejecting southern s/w really has ...

Let the Model Madness ...

#37 Postby **wxguy25** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:00 pm

Stormsfury wrote:
wxguy25 wrote:
Fodie77 wrote:wxguy, which model do you think we should be focusing on come friday when the storm is on our doorstep?

NAM, MM5, WRF, SREF.

MESOETA within 33 hours, radars, and satellite ... I really believe the models are clearly underprogging the wedge ... and again (like on my website update, albeit brief, South Carolina has as problem with other things than JUST a cold rain ...)

WRF will accomplish that IMO

krysof · #38 Postby **krysof** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:09 pm

I accidentally made a thread similair to the post and it is now locked. What's going to happen to me.

JenyEliza · #39 Postby **JenyEliza** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:14 pm

krysof wrote:I accidentally made a thread similair to the post and it is now locked. What's going to happen to me.

Probably nothing. The mods are not bad guys here. They just like to keep the boards clear of lots of dupes. That's all.

Post away...you're probably not gonna have a problem (unless you keep doing the same thing over and over).

BUT...I'm not a Mod, so I can't speak for them.

Jeny

Website · #40 Postby **Brent** » Wed Jan 19, 2005 10:19 pm

krysof wrote:I accidentally made a thread similair to the post and it is now locked. What's going to happen to me.

As long as you don't do it over and over again, you'll be fine. They'll warn you first though.

Wxblog update...making sense of the model mess

Local forecaster

Who is online