The 'Cold War' over Winter's Future: Verifications Thread

[Persepone]

I estimate our totals in Atlanta this year at:

1" of ice January 29-30
8 teeny tiny snowflakes in late December 2004 (I counted). Jeny

And I'll bet that you caught all 8 of them on your tongue so no one else in Atlanta got any! javascript:emoticon(':lol:')':lol:'

[JenyEliza]

I estimate our totals in Atlanta this year at:

1" of ice January 29-30
8 teeny tiny snowflakes in late December 2004 (I counted). Jeny

And I'll bet that you caught all 8 of them on your tongue so no one else in Atlanta got any! javascript:emoticon(':lol:')':lol:'

How'd you know?

[donsutherland1]

Even as the models have continued to march toward the long-heralded pattern change, a new prediction has been added to the mix by Krysof:

• ...temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week.

[JenyEliza]

Keep up the good work, Don!

[donsutherland1]

David,

That's correct, The forecast that the temperature would not drop below 36º in central NJ is Krysof's forecast. Newark's low temperature Thursday morning should beat that figure.

[W13]

if its supposed to be snowy and cold, weather.com shows temps in the upper 30's in the long range, but dry.

Weather.com is never right. I would trust someone that knows nothing about weather than Weather.com since they never have a good handle on what is going on.

Just analyze the models, and keep your eyes peeled for something exciting.

[Rainband]

David,

That's correct, The forecast that the temperature would not drop below 36º in central NJ is Krysof's forecast. Newark's low temperature Thursday morning should beat that figure.

I was born in Newark. I don't miss that NJ cold brrr nGreat Job as always Don!!!

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Jeny. The cold front that should mark the beginning of the pattern change is now moving across parts of the Midwest. For a first indication as to how well the MOS is performing, tomorrow morning's low temperatures are forecast as follows:

Chicago: 25°
Detroit: 31°

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Rainband.

Realistically, it looks very good that the pattern change will occur. Now, it's becoming more a question of details--how cold? how much snow? I still believe the ideas noted in the pattern change thread look very reasonable.

It will be interesting to see if the pattern can produce a large storm of the magnitude of those listed in the Kocin-Uccellini works.

[JenyEliza]

Thanks, Jeny. The cold front that should mark the beginning of the pattern change is now moving across parts of the Midwest. For a first indication as to how well the MOS is performing, tomorrow morning's low temperatures are forecast as follows:

Chicago: 25°
Detroit: 31°

Oh wow, Spring has sprung already! (sarcasm fully intended)

[SnowGod]

Lets be clear, the PV is in retreat, that means the worst of the cold air will NOT influence the CONUS in the "Greenland block" pattern. This does NOT support major storms or Bombs. This is exactly as I predicted a week ago.

Please don't show stuff from the GFS at 312 hours. That never verifies.

[Persepone]

2/21/05 Snow Totals posted today (from Weatherunderground)

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 12
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region.

Appreciation is extended to Highway departments... cooperative
observers... Skywarn spotters and media for these reports. This
summary is also available on our home Page at weather.Gov/Boston


********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
(inches) measurement


Connecticut

... Hartford County...
West Granby 7.3 1141 am 2/21
Burlington 5.0 950 am 2/21
Rocky Hill 4.5 1254 PM 2/21
Wethersfield 4.5 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT
West Hartford 4.5 1141 am 2/21
Farmington 4.3 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT
Newington 4.0 150 PM 2/21 spotter
Glastonbury 4.0 928 am 2/21
Manchester 3.9 1152 am 2/21
East Granby 3.5 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT
Windsor Locks 3.4 100 PM 2/21 ang
Windsor 3.0 340 PM 2/21 spotter

... Tolland County...
Vernon 4.0 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT
Union 3.8 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT
Mansfield 3.8 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT

... Windham County...
Woodstock 4.0 453 PM 2/21 spotter
Pomfret 3.0 856 am 2/21
East Killingly 2.5 140 PM 2/21 spotter
Putnam 2.3 1200 PM 2/21 CT DOT

Massachusetts

... Barnstable County...
West Falmouth 5.0 130 PM 2/21 spotter
Sagamore 4.0 1250 PM 2/21
East Falmouth 3.8 310 PM 2/21 spotter
Brewster 3.6 510 PM 2/21 spotter
Eastham 3.3 1240 PM 2/21 spotter
Marstons Mills 3.0 625 am 2/21 NWS employee
Hyannis 2.1 701 am 2/21 ham radio

... Bristol County...
Taunton 3.9 100 PM 2/21 NWS office
Fairhaven 3.5 434 PM 2/21 spotter
Mansfield 3.4 135 PM 2/21 spotter
New Bedford 3.0 940 am 2/21
North Attleboro 2.2 702 am 2/21 media

... Essex County...
Topsfield 6.5 310 PM 2/21 spotter
Georgetown 6.4 415 PM 2/21 spotter
Haverhill 6.0 1246 PM 2/21
Methuen 6.0 1258 PM 2/21
Ipswich 6.0 124 PM 2/21 spotter
Gloucester 5.5 1256 PM 2/21
Danvers 5.0 1137 am 2/21
Peabody 5.0 235 PM 2/21 ham radio
Beverly 3.5 931 am 2/21
Marblehead 3.5 508 PM 2/21 spotter
Swampscott 3.5 1144 am 2/21
Lynn 3.3 1137 am 2/21
Newburyport 2.0 629 am 2/21 spotter

... Franklin County...
Shelburne Falls 6.0 915 am 2/21
Northfield 5.0 414 PM 2/21 spotter
Leverett 4.0 1148 am 2/21
Conway 2.0 626 am 2/21 media

... Hampden County...
Southwick 4.3 359 PM 2/21 spotter
Chicopee 3.3 408 PM 2/21 emergency management
Montgomery 2.8 740 am 2/21

... Hampshire County...
Goshen 7.0 430 PM 2/21 spotter
Westhampton 4.1 953 am 2/21 West Hampton

... Middlesex County...
North Billerica 5.0 225 PM 2/21 spotter
Kingston 4.5 944 am 2/21
Chelmsford 4.5 300 PM 2/21 spotter
Lowell 4.3 1250 PM 2/21 spotter
Framingham 4.0 312 PM 2/21 spotter
Ayer 4.0 1251 PM 2/21
Billerica 4.0 1156 am 2/21
Dunstable 4.0 1256 PM 2/21
Everett 4.0 1256 PM 2/21
Groton 4.0 528 PM 2/21 spotter
reading 3.7 1247 PM 2/21 spotter
Belmont 3.7 1151 am 2/21
Arlington Heights 3.3 1144 am 2/21
Shirley 3.0 908 am 2/21
Westford 3.0 1157 am 2/21
Wakefield 2.9 1143 am 2/21
Cambridge 2.5 1147 am 2/21
Stoneham 2.5 910 am 2/21
Melrose 2.0 944 am 2/21
Pepperell 2.0 907 am 2/21

... Nantucket County...
Nantucket 4.2 1157 am 2/21

... Norfolk County...
East Milton 3.6 100 PM 2/21 Blue Hill
Randolph 3.5 401 PM 2/21 spotter
Foxboro 3.3 959 am 2/21 NWS employee
Wellesley 2.5 210 PM 2/21 spotter
Needham 2.2 911 am 2/21
Braintree 2.0 902 am 2/21

... Plymouth County...
Duxbury 4.0 400 PM 2/21 spotter
Hingham 3.6 458 PM 2/21 co-op observer
Marion 3.5 446 PM 2/21 spotter
Plymouth - Manomet 2.8 340 PM 2/21 spotter

... Suffolk County...
Winthrop 4.2 400 PM 2/21 spotter
Boston 3.9 100 PM 2/21 Airport

... Worcester County...
Worcester 6.9 515 PM 2/21 Airport
Boylston 5.4 340 PM 2/21 spotter
Westminster 5.2 1045 am 2/21
Gardner 4.8 1154 am 2/21
Westborough 4.7 245 PM 2/21 NWS employee
Leominster 4.0 1146 am 2/21
Royalston 4.0 445 PM 2/21 spotter
West Brookfield 3.0 330 PM 2/21 spotter
West Warren 3.0 220 PM 2/21 spotter
Southbridge 2.8 230 PM 2/21 spotter
Northbridge 2.0 914 am 2/21

New Hampshire

... Cheshire County...
Stoddard 6.0 1100 am 2/21 NH DOT
Hinsdale 5.0 859 am 2/21
Winchester 4.5 1154 am 2/21
Swanzey 4.0 300 PM 2/21
Keene 3.8 1249 PM 2/21

... Hillsborough County...
Hillsborough 5.5 341 PM 2/21 spotter
Manchester 5.3 514 PM 2/21 spotter
Bedford 5.0 300 PM 2/21
South Weare 4.8 553 PM 2/21 spotter
Greenfield 4.5 400 PM 2/21 spotter
New Ipswich 4.0 300 PM 2/21
Wilton 4.0 300 PM 2/21
Nashua 4.0 307 PM 2/21 spotter
Temple 4.0 1100 am 2/21 NH DOT
Hudson 3.2 437 PM 2/21 spotter
Francestown 2.5 704 am 2/21 coop

Rhode Island

... Bristol County...
Barrington 2.0 1010 am 2/21
Bristol 2.0 1133 am 2/21

... Kent County...
Warwick 3.5 408 PM 2/21 spotter
Coventry 3.0 100 PM 2/21 spotter
Warwick 2.3 100 PM 2/21 T.F. Green Airport

... Newport County...
Middletown 6.0 1145 am 2/21
Little Compton 3.7 330 PM 2/21 spotter
Tiverton 2.9 200 PM 2/21 spotter

... Providence County...
Burrillville 4.0 502 PM 2/21 spotter
Woonsocket 3.0 235 PM 2/21 ham radio
Cumberland 2.8 1227 PM 2/21 NWS employee
North Foster 2.1 1147 am 2/21 NWS coop

... Washington County...
Hope Valley 4.0 300 PM 2/21 spotter
North Kingstown 3.0 1150 am 2/21 spotter

[Ed Spacer]

I concur with the original poster the met who started the topic. Yes, we are at the end of February,and if you asked me a week ago,I'd say we're well onto the springtime. I will estimate, that we will be in an unusually active/below normal temperature period until the middle of March.El Nino is NOT winning out over the polar air push from Canada as it did in the 97'-98' winter and the 99'-00' winters.

[donsutherland1]

Ed,

Two quick notes.

1) The 1997-98 El Niño was one of the strongest on record. It was a basinwide (full Pacific) event. The 2004-05 event was one of the weaker ones on record and it was a Central Pacific (warm anomalies concentrated in the Central Pacific) event. 1997-98 flooded North America with warm air. The current one could not do that. In addition, it is gradually fading.

2) 1999-00 saw a moderate La Niña. Moderate/Strong La Niñas typically bring warmer than normal winters to the East along with below to much below normal snowfall.

[donsutherland1]

Don's Ideas:

• Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC will see the temperature average below normal during the February 15-28 period.

February 15-28 Temperature Departures:
Boston: 3.6° below normal
New York City: 3.1° below normal
Philadelphia: 2.5° below normal
Washington, DC: 0.8° below normal

• February 15-28 Snowfall: Boston: 15" or more; NYC: 10" or more; DCA: 6" or more

February 15-28 Snowfall:
Boston: 17.4"
New York City: 15.8"
Washington, DC: 5.2"

Krysof's Ideas:
• The February Monthly Temperature will Average 10° Above Normal.

February Temperature Departures (through February 11):
Boston: -0.5°
New York City: +1.9°
Philadelphia: +1.3°
Washington, DC: +1.5°

• Temperatures will stay way above freezing for the rest of the month.

Subfreezing Days (highs stay below freezing) Since February 6 (through February 11):
Boston: 4
New York City: 1
Philadelphia: 1
Washington, DC: 0

• No Snow!

Snowfall since February 12:
Boston: 17.4"
New York City: 15.8"
Philadelphia: 12.1"
Washington, DC: 5.2"

New Addition from February 14:
• ...temperatures will only get as low as 36 for central new jersey by late this week and next week.

Newark: 13 days with lows below 36°