February 28-March 1st rainstorm for the coastal areas?

[krysof]

if it's offshore like the ukmet and others say, who will get the heaviest snows.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Probably from the cities north and west. I 81 to I 95 would be the heaviest swath should that offshore track verify. We got 2 models versus 5 models in this situation. 5 of those models have it offshore, 2 of those near the coast or inland. Even if we go between those particular models, the big cities wouldn't escape the winter storm completely as far as frozen precip is concerned. But this system is likely to be juiced by gulf and atlantic moisture. Thus any precip type will be significant and very heavy at times. Will just have to watch this all weekend.

The latest ETA trends further west into the mountains. Will keep an eye on it.

Jim

[DS]

The GFS really doesn't make a lot of sense, because first of all, its got 3 lows: one near Chicago, one near TN/NC border and an elongated trough stretching offshore to the third low of the NC coast. However, to get to these positions, the GFS (and NAM) almost drive the whole system due north out of the GOM. This is highly unlikely given the upperair and SST patterns.

[SnowGod]

Go to WxRisk.com, he has the choices and the possibilities about this. It will explain "how" the NAM and GFS can be VERY right. As WxRisk mentions, the European is basically fooling itself. It has all the basics in place, but just is mis-handling the key piece somewhat.
So we have
1)Nor'easter
2)"Inside" Runner ala 1972
3)"Ohio Valley/Apps bomb" ala 1950(though that 3-streamed and was a massive system compared to this possiblity).

[EXTONPA]

I disagree snowgod, I think ECMFW and JMA and UKMET have it right and the ETA and GFS have it wrong....

The GFS sucks in these scenarios

[SnowGod]

There is a first time for everything. Even the GFS gets coo's once in awhile.

[EXTONPA]

that's true

[EXTONPA]

Canadian also has storm east, moving up coast not inland...

[krysof]

the 0z nam models are coming out and it already looks like a south and east shift has been made

[Lowpressure]

the 0z nam models are coming out and it already looks like a south and east shift has been made

Just got back from dinner, what sort of distance south and east?

[krysof]

well its actually more east, not much and it doesn't change many things but it could be the start of an eastward trend, I'll see if it continues tomorrow morning.

[donsutherland1]

Snowgod,

While the outcome is not yet certain, it should be noted that it is far from assured that the 500 mb low will "capture" the surface low and pull it inland. A prominent example where the 500 mb low did not capture the surface low and reel it inland was the February 1967 snowstorm.

One must not forget the strength of the extreme block now in place. If there were no such extreme block in place, the idea that the 500 mb low would pull the surface low inland, perhaps well inland, would have much more weight.

FWIW, not just the ECMWF has an "east" track. The ECMWF ensembles and also the GFS ensembles are east of the GFS idea.

Anywho, just things to consider.

[RestonVA]

I'm very concerned about the temperature situation for the DC Metro area. I don't really trust weather.com, but they and the local mets have temps in the high 30's, of course I don't think they have taken the 0z into account yet. From what krysof says with the movement east, and what I seem to be understanding, that if a movement to the east does occurs and stays, it will likely allow cold air to penetrate and make the precip snow? Man, this is stresss!!!

[krysof]

tomorrow morning i'll know for sure

[EXTONPA]

latest ETA bit further to the east with the storm; correction is occuring; will be even further east by tomorrow

[SnowGod]

NAM isn't further east, you obviously are going by the 18z. It holds it ground and is slightly West of its 12z run.

[EXTONPA]

Look at double barrel low over PA. The latest ETA run has the low pressure on the east side stronger and better defined. ETA will continue to shift this to the east, towards the coast. I will bet you, although you are the snowgod, so maybe that's a bad idea...

anyhow, either way, no big deal for me, I'm looking forward to spring at this point!!

[EXTONPA]

latest GFS much further east in its track of the storm; and closer to euro and most other models....

[krysof]

except it phases too late, which doesn't funnel in the cold air further southeast, but those details will get worked on later, it just has to track a little bit further east and the set-up would be perfect for major snows for I-95 corridor.

[SnowGod]

No, the NAM isn't east. the Apps low is ALWAYS the main low. The GFS needs a moderate Westward shift and it is there, the missing piece so to speak. The GGEM is the GFS but more east. The NAM is a Apps solution.

Intill that "final piece" comes into these models view, they will be wrong each and every time.

Let me be clear, I DO NOT agree with the Nams West Slope of Apps track, but the other models simply aren't phasing as the pattern dictates, thus leading to failure with runs to far east and missing the 500mb low. Don tries to say how in 67 there was a storm that "missed" the 500mb low, but not when it is closing off like that(which the 67 GL low never did), IT rules the roost. The southern low MUST pull back. Intill I see that, A blend of the NAM and GGEM/European is the best I can do(or a slightly more westward GFS)