"How much LONGER can THIS go ON?"

[Aslkahuna]

We picked up 0.02in of rain here but that will probably be it. Dust, it's now official-the latest Drought Monitor has upgraded you to Extreme Drought up from Severe-next step, Exceptional, should come soon.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

Ironically, the only drops of rain I have seen since October were on the day of the Rose Parade in Los Angeles.

You didn't get any rain from the December 28th or so system? What about the one back in mid-October last year?

[Aslkahuna]

The Tournament of Roses Parade was on January 2nd.

Steve

[weatherlover427]

The Tournament of Roses Parade was on January 2nd.

Steve

Yeah I remember that, it was the day of the only decent storm so far this whole season (and probably the only one we WILL get ).

[wxmann_91]

Ironically, the only drops of rain I have seen since October were on the day of the Rose Parade in Los Angeles.

You didn't get any rain from the December 28th or so system? What about the one back in mid-October last year?

I don't recall about the Dec. 28 system, but still, the point is that it has rained little here.

[weatherlover427]

Ironically, the only drops of rain I have seen since October were on the day of the Rose Parade in Los Angeles.

You didn't get any rain from the December 28th or so system? What about the one back in mid-October last year?

I don't recall about the Dec. 28 system, but still, the point is that it has rained little here.

So true. I have only 2.01" since July 1st here at the official station at John Wayne airport (which is like 2 miles from me); I'm sure it's near that here. We are on track to break our record of driest season ever since that record stands at 4.32".

[azskyman]

There's talk of a southward shift of the jet stream beginning this week which could bring some potential for clouds and precipitation from 4-10 days out. Anyone else seeing this?

[KWT]

Here in the UK we too have had very little rain in recent months, rainfall so far is at just 15% of the first 11 days usual average, January had just 37% of average and December was also a dry month.

however as azskyman said it does seem liek teh jet is gonig to dive south, infact in the atlantic basin the jet is already starting to do this and at long last looks like things are going to beocme unsettled, infact the main started of this process is the storm currently battering the east of the USA, infact there is a chance that down here in the south-east we could have as much rain in one week that we've had for the whole of the winter so far!
At the very least, it'll reduce the risk of drought this summer.

[Aslkahuna]

I was unimpressed by the model runs last night. I'm in TUS so I'm not following closely right now.

Steve

[Aslkahuna]

For AZ, anything on the model runs beyond 96 hours should be viewed with the utmost suspicion and anything beyond 168 hours should be viewed with absolute disbelief and anything beyond 240 hours is good only for comic relief.

Steve

[aveosmth]

I think this time the models will be right and we will have a pattern change.

Unfortunately, I don't see much as far as precip, but it will get cold, especially SFO and points north.

[Aslkahuna]

TUS NWS going for variable cloudiness, cooler, breezy and DRY later this coming week. Problem is, pattern changes are worthless without rain.

Steve

[azskyman]

I'm with you on that, Steve. Pattern changes at least give rise to some hope of an overall change in the pattern for the weeks ahead. Persistence of the same conditions day in and day out...they really don't.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that a serious longwave pattern might develop as we approach the month of March which could give the Pacific NW a break and give us a better shot at some of the moisture.

[azsnowman]

You will NOT believe what I HEARD today?................I was out in the woods on my lunch break, bent over to pick up a piece of trash I dropped and heard, "Pssst buddy, I need a drink of water!" I looked around and it came from a ROCK....that's how DRY it is, the ROCKS are dying from a lack of moisture!!

Dennis