TX winter wx thread: Spring-like pattern

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Ed Mahmoud

Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#21 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Nov 25, 2007 4:28 pm

richtrav wrote:Ed

What kind of palm trees do you have? Most types grown in central TX can take temps below 25 unless you bought some of those ultratropical ones from the garden center. For citrus, tangerines are the hardiest of the widely eaten citrus, unless you live in the northern suburbs they should be fine unless an '89 type event comes along or you get a really early or late hard freeze (low 20s for an extended period). They can stand usually temps into the mid-to-upper teens in the middle of winter without serious injury (heck even people in Dallas have been growing them the past 5-8 years).

The winter climate of Texas fascinates me, probably since I've been growing subtropical plants since the '80s. I'm amazed at how the climate suddenly went from one extreme to the other after 1990



I don't know if I have Washingtonia Robusta or Washingtonia Filifera. Either way, I've had lower to mid 20s mornings and didn't wrap the trees, and they seemed fine. I got them at Walmart, for $5 each in small pots about 6 years ago, the price being so low the sun had faded the bar code labels too much for the scanner to scan. Manager was in a good mood, I guess. Fit in the backseat of my Buick. Now, the one in better light, in the front yard, has a 'trunk' about six feet high, and with fronds is about twice that tall. Pretty low maintenance, except for pruning off dead fronds, and I've only drawn blood through the gardening gloves a few times. The backyard one is a bit shorter, and the tree is somewhat bent, away from the fence that limits it sun exposure. (Planted it near the fence because of powerlines over the backyard). The fronds are in full sun during the day, I hope it bends back straight.
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#22 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:49 pm

The latest 18z GFS run builds a 1050mb+ high pressure system up in Canada by Monday, December 3rd and is moving a strong front down through TX associated with a 1033mb+ high out ahead of it on the same day: (http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_180l.gif). This looks believable. Beyond 180 hours though, the model once again gets a bit crazy. By December 4th, the GFS weakens the 1050mb+ high down to 1033mb and shoves it eastward. This is not very likely to happen, IMO. None the less, even with the weaker high, the GFS still brings a pretty chilly airmass into our area by the 4th and 5th with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s (possibly as cold as near freezing) for SE Texas. Keep in mind though, that if the strong high does not weaken, then we could be looking at a much colder scenario as the frigid air would head more southward instead of more eastward.

At this point, if I had to place a bet, I would bet that the high pressure stays strong and dives more southward...meaning a colder setup for Texas. Usually the GFS is pretty bad with driving cold, arctic air masses south in the long range (especially if they are shallow), and I think we may be seeing that error happen here.

We will just have to wait and see what happens...
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#23 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 25, 2007 5:56 pm

Latest from the CPC...

Image
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Re:

#24 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:08 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Latest from the CPC...

Image



Alaska above normal usually beens below normal for the lower 48.

If they keep on with these forecasts, the CPC is going to have to revise it's above normal outlook for December. It would not be the first time, either way.
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#25 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Sun Nov 25, 2007 6:45 pm

pro-Mets, what is the famed 'McFarland Signature' (spelling?) I sometimes see in Texas NWS AFDs as a prelude to unusually cold winter weather?
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#26 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sun Nov 25, 2007 7:14 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:pro-Mets, what is the famed 'McFarland Signature' (spelling?) I sometimes see in Texas NWS AFDs as a prelude to unusually cold winter weather?


not a met but:

Useful relationships between 500 MB features and major freeze events in the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas
MCFARLAND, M V
The recognition guidelines for 500 mb patterns which may indicate a freeze are: short wave omega block super-imposed on a long wave ridge through central Alaska with a deep low system between Hudson Bay and Greenland; an east-west trough line over southern Canada or the northern United States with zonal flow and a strong jet to the south and northerly flow to the north of the trough line; a closed low moving southward through the Prairie Provinces of Canada developing into a long wave trough, with cyclogenesis; discontinuous retrogression of a full-latitude trough over the western United States involving a closed low or major east-west short wave moving southward without cyclogenesis; and a sharp full-latitude trough, frequently with a closed low, over the southeastern states.

Descriptors: AGRICULTURE; FREEZING; RIO GRANDE (NORTH AMERICA); WEATHER FORECASTING; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; HUDSON BAY (CANADA); STORMS; TEXAS; ZONAL FLOW (METEOROLOGY)
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#27 Postby cctxhurricanewatcher » Sun Nov 25, 2007 9:06 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:
Ed Mahmoud wrote:pro-Mets, what is the famed 'McFarland Signature' (spelling?) I sometimes see in Texas NWS AFDs as a prelude to unusually cold winter weather?


not a met but:

Useful relationships between 500 MB features and major freeze events in the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas
MCFARLAND, M V
The recognition guidelines for 500 mb patterns which may indicate a freeze are: short wave omega block super-imposed on a long wave ridge through central Alaska with a deep low system between Hudson Bay and Greenland; an east-west trough line over southern Canada or the northern United States with zonal flow and a strong jet to the south and northerly flow to the north of the trough line; a closed low moving southward through the Prairie Provinces of Canada developing into a long wave trough, with cyclogenesis; discontinuous retrogression of a full-latitude trough over the western United States involving a closed low or major east-west short wave moving southward without cyclogenesis; and a sharp full-latitude trough, frequently with a closed low, over the southeastern states.

Descriptors: AGRICULTURE; FREEZING; RIO GRANDE (NORTH AMERICA); WEATHER FORECASTING; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION; ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; HUDSON BAY (CANADA); STORMS; TEXAS; ZONAL FLOW (METEOROLOGY)



McFarland is like a four letter word in South Texas. :cold: :cold:
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#28 Postby richtrav » Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:06 pm

cctxhurricanewatcher wrote:
McFarland is like a four letter word in South Texas. :cold: :cold:


Absolutely, they are extremely destructive to the region. There is a good article on the topic:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/techmemo/tm88.htm

It appears to have been written in the '70s as there is no mention of the '83 or '89 freezes. It would be interesting to see how those 2 later events compared, especially considering that they reached all the way east to Florida unlike previous freezes of the 20th century (does anyone know off the top of their head?)

And Jim, are the leaves on your washingtonias a bright glossy green or a duller color?
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#29 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Nov 25, 2007 11:47 pm

Here is a good example of how inconsistent the GFS has been lately. Compare both the 18z and 00z runs for the 12am Monday, December 3rd timeframe...

00z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

18z = http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_180l.gif

Notice the difference? The 18z shows a 1050mb+ high pressure up in NW Canada while the 00z shows less than 1030mb of high pressure up there. That kind of difference is MAJOR in trying to determine when, if and how strong an arctic front can be for our area. Hopefully the GFS will start getting some consistency soon, because if it keeps this up, then we are pretty much just going to remain clueless until something actually starts to happen up there.
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#30 Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:10 am

EWG, perhaps we should be looking at more than the GFS ... check out the comments this morning from the NWSFO in Austin/San Antonio:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A PILING-UP OF ARCTIC AIR IN WESTERN
CANADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN CANADA`S NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES ARE ALREADY IN THE NEGATIVE (-) 20S. THIS FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BIG-IMPACT WEATHER CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS THESE AIRMASSES TEND TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WHEN THEY GET ROLLING.
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#31 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 7:45 am

Very interesting AFD portastorm! Thanks for pointing that out.
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#32 Postby double D » Mon Nov 26, 2007 10:21 am

Portastorm wrote:EWG, perhaps we should be looking at more than the GFS ... check out the comments this morning from the NWSFO in Austin/San Antonio:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS...AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...SHOW A PILING-UP OF ARCTIC AIR IN WESTERN
CANADA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN CANADA`S NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES ARE ALREADY IN THE NEGATIVE (-) 20S. THIS FORECAST
DEVELOPMENT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
BIG-IMPACT WEATHER CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS THESE AIRMASSES TEND TO
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD WHEN THEY GET ROLLING
.


That's why I don't understand why the GFS is pushing the brunt of the cold air east, only giving us with a glancing blow. These type of airmasses usually undercut the pacific jet and "drain" southward to Texas.
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Re: Early December Arctic Blast for Texas?

#33 Postby double D » Mon Nov 26, 2007 10:28 am

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS WRN US TROF SLIDES EWD. AGAIN...THIS COLD AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE SHALLOW. TEMP GRIDS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD THRU NEXT
MONDAY REFLECT ROUGHLY NERN HALF OF FCST AREA COOLEST AND SWRN TX
PNHDL WARMEST OVERALL. NO POPS AFTER SATURDAY. DID UNDERCUT 00Z
MEXMOS MOST PLACES FROM FRIDAY THRU NEXT MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NERN
HALF OF PNHDLS. WILL COMMENT THAT BOTH ECMWF AND GFS TAKE BRUNT OF
COLDEST AIR E AND N OF FCST AREA. DIFFICULT CALL THIS FAR OUT. THE
ORIENTATION AND EXTENT OF AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD AS TO WHETHER THESE COLD AIRMASSES
WILL SLIDE DOWN ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS DUE SOUTH
OR HEAD MORE EWD AND SEWD THRU ERN SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS STATES AND
MIDWEST. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR
PATTERNS NEXT FEW DAYS.


Well this explains how the cold air could go east instead of south (from the Amarillo NWS).
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#34 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 3:57 pm

I still think this comes further south. Usually these 1050mb+ highs tend to drop more southward, and I have seen it happen many times in the past where the GFS keeps the most of the cold air off to our east in the beginning and then gradually begins to trend colder and colder for us. In fact, that already seems to be happening. The 0z and 6z GFS were somewhat chilly for us, but really nothing spectacular. The 12z GFS, on the other hand, has gotten much cooler and shows the potential for multiple freeze threats into Texas during the days behind this upcoming front and then another front behind it. If this trend continues, then I think a stronger front(s) and a colder post-frontal pattern will begin to show up in later model runs.

We shall see..

BTW - Though I believe the models will continue to trend colder for us, I still think the bulk of the most extreme cold (relative to normals) will be over the northern plains.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#35 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:00 pm

The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty strong high charging down the plains during the morning of December 6th...

Image
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Re:

#36 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:18 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty strong high charging down the plains during the morning of December 6th...

Image



Did you know that Joe Bastardi believes the European model is inferior to the GFS model during La Niña winters?


Edite to add- the ñ didn't work as planned- that word is La Nina with an enya, or a squiggle over the n.
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Re:

#37 Postby Portastorm » Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:30 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think this comes further south. Usually these 1050mb+ highs tend to drop more southward, and I have seen it happen many times in the past where the GFS keeps the most of the cold air off to our east in the beginning and then gradually begins to trend colder and colder for us. In fact, that already seems to be happening. The 0z and 6z GFS were somewhat chilly for us, but really nothing spectacular. The 12z GFS, on the other hand, has gotten much cooler and shows the potential for multiple freeze threats into Texas during the days behind this upcoming front and then another front behind it. If this trend continues, then I think a stronger front(s) and a colder post-frontal pattern will begin to show up in later model runs.

We shall see..

BTW - Though I believe the models will continue to trend colder for us, I still think the bulk of the most extreme cold (relative to normals) will be over the northern plains.


EWG, you know I would happily jump on the "Arctic Express" bandwagon with you the moment I saw something compelling in any of the models, but I just don't see what you're talking about. I looked the 12z GFS run from today up and down and don't see any freeze threats at all south of I-20. I just don't see it.

The orientation of the airmasses as progged by the Euro and the GFS show it going east of us. We may get something a bit below normal but nothing exciting or even like this past weekend. The "Crazy Uncle" Canadian model is the only one I see that suggests the airmass plunges more south than east and that was from its 0z run. I haven't seen the 12z CMC yet.

So, I'm just scratching my head here ... :?:
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#38 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 4:57 pm

From JB this afternoon:
"we have an opportunity...from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast that I think winter is warmest... to have some real fun and games Dec 1-10".
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Re: Re:

#39 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:04 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:I still think this comes further south. Usually these 1050mb+ highs tend to drop more southward, and I have seen it happen many times in the past where the GFS keeps the most of the cold air off to our east in the beginning and then gradually begins to trend colder and colder for us. In fact, that already seems to be happening. The 0z and 6z GFS were somewhat chilly for us, but really nothing spectacular. The 12z GFS, on the other hand, has gotten much cooler and shows the potential for multiple freeze threats into Texas during the days behind this upcoming front and then another front behind it. If this trend continues, then I think a stronger front(s) and a colder post-frontal pattern will begin to show up in later model runs.

We shall see..

BTW - Though I believe the models will continue to trend colder for us, I still think the bulk of the most extreme cold (relative to normals) will be over the northern plains.


EWG, you know I would happily jump on the "Arctic Express" bandwagon with you the moment I saw something compelling in any of the models, but I just don't see what you're talking about. I looked the 12z GFS run from today up and down and don't see any freeze threats at all south of I-20. I just don't see it.

The orientation of the airmasses as progged by the Euro and the GFS show it going east of us. We may get something a bit below normal but nothing exciting or even like this past weekend. The "Crazy Uncle" Canadian model is the only one I see that suggests the airmass plunges more south than east and that was from its 0z run. I haven't seen the 12z CMC yet.

So, I'm just scratching my head here ... :?:
The GFS doesn't show freezes reaching south of I-20, but the 12z GFS does show freeze threats reaching north Texas and multiple mornings with lows in the 30s into central and SE Texas. My main point though was that this is a big change from some of the earlier runs that showed no lows in the 30s reaching us and kept all the cold air north. If this trend continues, then the GFS numbers should drop further in the coming days.
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Re: Re:

#40 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:15 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The 12z ECMWF shows a pretty strong high charging down the plains during the morning of December 6th...

Image



Did you know that Joe Bastardi believes the European model is inferior to the GFS model during La Niña winters?


Edite to add- the ñ didn't work as planned- that word is La Nina with an enya, or a squiggle over the n.
yeah, he thinks the EURO is being a bit too slow with moving the cold air southward and that the GFS is better with the timing. He also noted that the EURO tends to overplay the ridges and the troughs.

Even so, it is still interesting to look at the EURO for comparison.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Mon Nov 26, 2007 5:25 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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