Texas Winter 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

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Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2021 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 3:59 pm

Still way out. Boy the flip flopping will continue. My dissertation, I hate. LOL.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2022 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:05 pm

And the new Canadian has no snow for Texas during the same time period.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2023 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.


At 240hrs, the Euro has a bullseye of over 12" of snow in central Texas. Looks like it's centered very near Austin.


That is why I am certain it is wrong! :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2024 Postby wxman57 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:29 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.


At 240hrs, the Euro has a bullseye of over 12" of snow in central Texas. Looks like it's centered very near Austin.


That is why I am certain it is wrong! :lol:


Perhaps NOW you believe the Canadian?

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2025 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:34 pm

:uarrow:

That's more like it ... much more believable!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2026 Postby Shoshana » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:38 pm

wxman57 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro also shows snow across central TX in about 8-9 days. Austin and College Station would get 4-6 inches if the Euro verified.


At 240hrs, the Euro has a bullseye of over 12" of snow in central Texas. Looks like it's centered very near Austin.


I think the whole area would grind to a halt ... just from the prediction of that much snow!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2027 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:50 pm

I have to wait for an hour for a bus to take me back to campus, there's a lovely snow flurry shower occurring right now though. Im hoping for a snow storm surprise for San Antonio on the last weekend of January. I'll be at a gaming convention and my Canadian friend will be there. He's always making fun of Texas weather. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2028 Postby JDawg512 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:52 pm

Hey everyone, hope the New year has been good for you all so far. Haven't had a chance to log in for awhile. I like the new look of the forum.

So last July I decided to try to estimate what the total rainfall for 2015 would end up being here at my house. I estimated then that between 60 to 65 inches would fall when all was said and done. I should have made a money bet because I would have banked lol. The final 2015 total rainfall for my location is.... 64.37 inches.

It's interesting how rainfall from location to location can be as much as a few inches in difference just a couple of miles apart as both official Austin recording stations were a little lower but that is why I keep my own rainfall records to see the differences.

Anyways thought I'd share. Gonna have to bundle up so I can go outside to take more lights down. Even with the sun, it's barely 50 degrees. :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2029 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:10 pm

Something is wrong when the Canadian is the most believable model lol

The 18z gfs is again different and just has some light snow in north Texas with a couple inches around DFW next Monday... Again beyond 7 days
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2030 Postby SouthernMet » Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:37 pm

For the record, this is what the CMC is actually showing for the same time period. Some are misleading by just showing "snowfall accumulation" maps. CMC has the same system but with an overrunning event for north tx.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2031 Postby Stormnut » Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:39 pm

Any moisture to squeeze out of the little disturbance moving towards south Texas/Louisiana tonight?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2032 Postby EnnisTx » Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:37 pm

Nice and cool tonight, Wish we had some snow falling. 38 degrees outside, watching the Packers and Skins play from the hot tub..... :froze: Not a fan of either, but it's football. :flag:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2033 Postby TexasF6 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:39 pm

Joe B said 1985 in his yadda yadda yesterday? You know what that means in AUSTIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Snow is coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! #TeamBelieve :froze: :froze: :froze: :cold: :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2034 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 10, 2016 8:52 pm

SouthernMet wrote:For the record, this is what the CMC is actually showing for the same time period. Some are misleading by just showing "snowfall accumulation" maps. CMC has the same system but with an overrunning event for north tx.


Yes, thanks for pointing this out SouthernMet....the snowfall map is probably the last thing we should look at when studying these model runs. It's the 500 mb and surface map, amongst several others that are much higher on that list. Bottom line is the GFS, Euro and Canadian all show the potential for a Major Winter storm for the deep south in 8 days....start paying attention to the strength/position of the Arctic HP over the next few days, it's going to be key to type/location of wintry precip

As you can see below...all models have the storm in place but the strength/position of the HP vary quite significantly

GFS
Image

Euro
Image

Canadian
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2035 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:09 pm

Both weatherbug and the weather channel's app have snow forecast next Monday night and Tuesday. Temps are pretty warm for it but its a start possibly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2036 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:02 pm

Even the Euro control and ensembles are optimistic on wintry potential. Keep threading that needle and the results will verify.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2037 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:10 pm

Can someone please link me to the Euro maps? Are they still pay only or are they now available for free?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2038 Postby SeGaBob » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:22 pm

:uarrow: Even this far south and east? I'm about 60 - 70 miles inland from the Ga coast. (The part of the coast where Ga and Sc meet)
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2039 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:34 pm

BigB0882 wrote:Can someone please link me to the Euro maps? Are they still pay only or are they now available for free?


Euro maps are always licensed. It is purely from private sources that must pay hefty money to acquire so we generally cannot post them. The free available data is from their website (ecmwf.int) however it is very limited and you probably won't be able to see any kind of maps like snow, rain etc just upper air. Generally the 12z Euro has snow in Texas and parts of LA however that is going towards the end of it's run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2040 Postby BigB0882 » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:51 pm

Thanks for the reply.

By the way, I tend to forget what models showed what because I look at so many but I found a post from last Monday and one of the models was showing a major winter storm from the Gulf all the way up the East coast around MLK day. Now models are hinting at it again and the time frame is getting closer. If models keep showing this then I will become very curious. I still expect model flip-flopping but to see a model show something big like that AGAIN is interesting indeed.
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