Texas Winter 2019-2020

[gpsnowman]

Lol these GFS snow maps have me dying

https://i.ibb.co/tqDQdTG/gfs-asnow-scus-17.png

If we don't hear from Ralph's Weather again it is because he had a heart attack after looking at this run. Holy moly.

[Cerlin]

10 inches?? Good grief GFS. I think it’s trying to overcompensate for the other models being a lot less progressive.

[Brent]

10 inches?? Good grief GFS. I think it’s trying to overcompensate for the other models being a lot less progressive.

Yeah I don't see the GFS verifying but this is either gonna be an epic coup or a massive bust I'm fully waiting for it to cave to the other models honestly

[orangeblood]

Geez, GEFS going all in!!!! 18Z Euro trending colder and further SE, good signal!

[orangeblood]

Something else to point out...GEFS is showing DFW temps approaching 28-30F as bulk of precipitation starts moving through. Major ice storm potential on the table if the mid layers don’t cool quick enough.

[bubba hotep]

Geez, GEFS going all in!!!! 18Z Euro trending colder and further SE, good signal!

https://images.weatherbell.com/meteogram/gfs-ensemble-all/KDFW/indiv_snow/1580580000/1580580000-pJqLO66IJDQ.png

That is one good looking chart lol

[TheProfessor]

The GEFS is closer to the EPS and Euro than the GFS. That's good news if you want a larger snow storm somewhere in Texas. Is the GEFS still ran off the legacy model?

[bubba hotep]

The GEFS is closer to the EPS and Euro than the GFS. That's good news if you want a larger snow storm somewhere in Texas. Is the GEFS still ran off the legacy model?

Yes

[Brent]

All in

[Texas Snow]

Well if you read their forecast discussion above they aren’t real confident in any accumulation in the metro, yet that graphic gives a different implication without stating it. Probably just hedging a bit for it to go either way, as would I this far out.

That said, I like they didn’t say “little to no accumulation expected.” I seriously hate that phrase.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lol these GFS snow maps have me dying

https://i.ibb.co/tqDQdTG/gfs-asnow-scus-17.png

If we don't hear from Ralph's Weather again it is because he had a heart attack after looking at this run. Holy moly.

Been enjoying the beautiful weather today but hopefully we get a different kind of beautiful weather this week. Love the pretty runs but I am not getting amped up until there is model agreement on Monday. This storm has the best snow potential since Feb 2010.

[bubba hotep]

EPS with a SE expansion as the runs are picking up on the colder air?

12z



18z

[orangeblood]

NAM trending towards GFS...it really could pull it off this time ladies and gentlemen!

Those are some heavy convective snow bands moving in Wednesday morning

[Texas Snow]

For those wondering that is the last frame in the run. Compared to its previous runs that really is a quite impressive development

[TheProfessor]

NAM trending towards GFS...it really could pull it off this time ladies and gentlemen!

Even though the NAM shows snow for DFW it's not actually trending towards the GFS. It's still holding that energy back and nearly forming a cutoff low(this would be a new wrinkle) In Northwestern Mexico. This exactly what you'd want in North Texas and would be miles better than anything the more progressive GFS would produce.

[TheProfessor]

The NAM is still digging the trough at 84 hours out, it's quite impressive really, It's certainly be more akin to the February 2010 snow storm than the March 2010 snow storm the GFS shows.

[Texas Snow]

The NAM is still digging the trough at 84 hours out, it's quite impressive really, It's certainly be more akin to the February 2010 snow storm than the March 2010 snow storm the GFS shows.

Oh please don’t tease...

[TheProfessor]

The NAM is still digging the trough at 84 hours out, it's quite impressive really, It's certainly be more akin to the February 2010 snow storm than the March 2010 snow storm the GFS shows.

Oh please don’t tease...

Obviously if the storm dug too much it could end up being Austin and San Antonio's storm but honestly this is the trend you want, you don't want a more progressive system like the GFS shows, that my drop a narrow band of snow, but except for the people under that band, most others would miss out. What you want is the GEFS and EPS solutions to keep trending south.

[orangeblood]

NAM trending towards GFS...it really could pull it off this time ladies and gentlemen!

Even though the NAM shows snow for DFW it's not actually trending towards the GFS. It's still holding that energy back and nearly forming a cutoff low(this would be a new wrinkle) In Northwestern Mexico. This exactly what you'd want in North Texas and would be miles better than anything the more progressive GFS would produce.

More progressive than previous runs, still has a little more energy hanging back but it looks to be trending towards the more progressive GFS solution...precip shield and temp profile also look similar.

[Ntxw]

The NAM is still digging the trough at 84 hours out, it's quite impressive really, It's certainly be more akin to the February 2010 snow storm than the March 2010 snow storm the GFS shows.

This is why you want the less progressive solution that sends waves of disturbances ahead of it. Then throw in cold air coming in a little more than anticipated and potential for a big ticket storm.

This is what happened in Feb 2010. My metric for a major DFW snowstorm (i.e Jan 1964, Feb 2010) is to have the vorticity come out neutral or slightly negative tilt out of Big Bend National Park. That's the perfect location for DFW, then a streaming PV anomaly coming in from the NW kicking it out providing a fresh cold air source.



Edit: Also don't sleep on the Subtropical Jet. Roaring right now south of Hawaii.