Texas Winter 2022-2023

[txwxwatcher]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

What parts of which states are we talking about and what timeframe?

[Cpv17]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

Big changes in the Mean trough position too…backing southwest.

This is the 500 mb delta from the 06z run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_dprog/1671278400/1671742800-9tRYuZ4GLbY.png

Cold air also backing southwest, in turn system should be doing same

Temp delta from 06Z
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/t2m_f_dprog/1671278400/1671742800-MnSSUQltkDA.png

That’s almost looking like that 12z Euro run from Tuesday.

[TheProfessor]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

What parts of which states are we talking about and what timeframe?

Time period is for the Thursday system. There's one that has a band from DFW to Iowa. There's another one that had big snow from around central Texas all the way up to Kansas City.

[Ntxw]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

[orangeblood]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

What parts of which states are we talking about and what timeframe?

Here are a few snap shots from GEFS




Significant Trend Change

[Cpv17]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

Models are in the beginning stages of realizing the true density of this airmass. They’re correcting back to their original solutions they had from 6–10 days ago.

[Texas Snowman]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

Shhhh! It’s like a no-hitter! Don’t talk about it until it happens!!!

[Iceresistance]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

Shhhh! It’s like a no-hitter! Don’t talk about it until it happens!!!

Or until the NWS says so!

[HockeyTx82]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

What does this mean and for who? are you saying blizzard. Are we talking fantasy stuff here or is this legitimately a true pattern shift.

[Iceresistance]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

What does this mean and for who? are you saying blizzard. Are we talking fantasy stuff here or is this legitimately a true pattern shift.

This may be legit.

(On the bolded): Please keep this a secret until we have a NWS Watch for it!

[rwfromkansas]

What is the GEPS? I have heard of the GEFS.

[Ntxw]

We're also trending towards a more amped solution too. Some wicked temperature changes and high winds. That B word.

https://i.imgur.com/kc2YYt6.gif

https://i.imgur.com/yx3cKsY.gif

What does this mean and for who? are you saying blizzard. Are we talking fantasy stuff here or is this legitimately a true pattern shift.

Whoever gets the storm, will be dealing with a blizzard. Strong PV anomaly streamer, drastic temperature/pressure gradient will yield blizzard warnings type system. For Thursday. If it comes dry winds will be howling from the north.

They don't make 1060mb+ all the time!

[Cpv17]

What is the GEPS? I have heard of the GEFS.

CMC ensembles I’m pretty sure.

[Ntxw]

This being a global. You know the hi-res will have some steep drops too. 40s to 10s in a flash.

[Cpv17]

This being a global. You know the hi-res will have some steep drops too. 40s to 10s in a flash.

https://i.imgur.com/DQaQkdd.png

Yep and the globals are always too warm. Gonna be potentially historic like what we were originally thinking and stopped talking about the past few days.

[Iceresistance]

Omg, my prediction that "December will launch a big one" might be true! I still remember saying that in October and November!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Ntxw]

This being a global. You know the hi-res will have some steep drops too. 40s to 10s in a flash.

https://i.imgur.com/DQaQkdd.png

Yep and the globals are always too warm. Gonna be potentially historic like what we were originally thinking and stopped talking about the past few days.

Too warm, tried to go east, lost it. You name it they did it! Classic .

[wxman57]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

Middle 80s?

[Cpv17]

Omg, my prediction that "December will launch a big one" might be true! I still remember saying that in October and November!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Might see something interesting late Jan/early to middle of Feb too.

[Iceresistance]

Omg, my prediction that "December will launch a big one" might be true! I still remember saying that in October and November!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Might see something interesting late Jan/early to middle of Feb too.

That is what I'm thinking too, except that in February, "The Big One" is launched here.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.