Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Brent]

I take it the GFS was not helpful towards getting precip?

Canadian took a small step towards the Euro. The GFS is trending towards no snow south of Chicago lol

Yeah the CMC does look a lot closer to the Euro. Theres still EPS members that bury us too

[Stratton23]

00z GEPS guidance coming in more aggressive with precipitation, 00z GEFS trending towards that as well

[Harp.1]

00z GEPS guidance coming in more aggressive with precipitation, 00z GEFS trending towards that as well

Where are you located?

[SnowintheFalls]

00z GEPS guidance coming in more aggressive with precipitation, 00z GEFS trending towards that as well

It is looking possible for Oklahoma like Brent had mentioned but not looking good at all south of the Red River.

[Texas Snow]

A friendly reminder to all that adding as much of your location to your profile as you are comfortable with helps others when reading your posts about the weather in your area.

Depending on if you are on a desktop, phone browser, or app you may not even realize that some platforms you can see the location next to the name without clicking to check

[ThunderSleetDreams]

00z GEPS guidance coming in more aggressive with precipitation, 00z GEFS trending towards that as well

Where are you located?

He’s in College Station.

[Brent]

I dunno about the 0z but the GEFS has gone the wrong way all day here up til now at least. We definitely had a higher mean last night than we had at 18z

It's also been consistently lower than the EPS mean

[txtwister78]

[Stratton23]

And the Euro holds it ground, with a winter storm

[txtwister78]

With the exception of parts of N/NE TX Euro generates light freezing rain amounts for the most part so not quite Winter Storm criteria further south but more realistic I think overall in terms of bringing whatever frozen precip that does fall further south as a result of arctic air advancing faster than previously modeled. This run actually hangs a bit more energy back further south and as a result doesn't get sheared apart as other models have shown.

I will say that both the CMC Ensemble and to some extent the GEFS have a few more members showing some light frozen precip similar to the Euro OP across portions of S Central and east TX so we continue to watch for trends.

Euro reloads and sends another batch of arctic air into Texas by the end of next week. The arctic cold train express continues.

[Gotwood]

I have to say after looking at all the models and their total QPF it almost seems a cruel joke. I mean how is it even possible? My area has had some pretty good rain since the new year and then all the sudden it just gets turned off? Someone please help me understand this.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking like many will drop below freezing Sunday and not recover above until Wednesday at earliest which would be 70+ hours.

[HockeyTx82]

Still a 20% chance of snow for MBY Sunday and Monday. Not looking as cold from the latest forecast from the NWS.

Big changes overnight?

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FTW .LONG TERM... /Issued 208 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024/
/Thursday Night Onward/

Our second and more formidable cold front is slated to arrive
over the weekend, although its timing has about ~18 hours worth of
discrepancy among guidance at this stage. The ECMWF and its
ensembles continue to be the faster/earlier solutions with the
front`s arrival, even more so than the NAM at the extent of its
forecast time range. The earliest possible cold frontal timing for
North Texas is currently Saturday afternoon when the Euro ushers
the boundary across the Red River. A larger proportion of guidance
suggests this will not occur until Sunday morning. Needless to
say, this will have tremendous implications on the temperature
forecast for Sunday, as the faster Euro solution would likely keep
most of the area below freezing the entire day. The GFS and other
slower guidance would result in early morning high temperatures
in the 40s with readings falling into the 20s in the afternoon
and evening as the strongest cold advection ensues.

The greatest difficulty with this forecast at present is the
potential for any wintry precip to occur following the frontal
passage late Sunday night into the day Monday. The ECMWF suite has
been persistently advertising a trailing shortwave which would
induce intense isentropic ascent atop the frontal surface
resulting in widespread precipitation across much of the region.
This feature is largely absent from the GFS suite, and this trend
has remained true with all 00z guidance tonight. The presence of
this trailing shortwave energy will dictate whether we have a
very cold but dry Arctic intrusion, or if we`ll have to contend
with an episode of wintry precipitation. At this time, the drier
GFS solution seems more plausible given the rest of the large
scale pattern evolution. However, it would be prudent to carry at
least a 20-30% mention of a wintry mix roughly near and east of
the I-35 corridor from Sunday evening into Monday. In reality, one
of the two aforementioned scenarios will end up coming to
fruition, but until a defined trend is observed in guidance we`ll
need to play the middle ground and advertise either possibility.

Aside from wintry precip, the other (and perhaps main) concern
with this event is the exceptionally cold temperatures and wind
chills that this system will bring. Many areas could spend 48 or
more hours below freezing, either Sunday-Monday or Monday-Tuesday
depending on the frontal timing scenarios discussed earlier. Sunday
night and/or Monday night could see widespread lows in the single
digits, with about a 10% chance for outlying areas of North Texas
to see lows near zero degrees. Preparations should be made to
protect plumbing that could succumb to a hard freeze. While wind
speeds will be more tame with this front, a steady 10-20 mph north
breeze will result in dangerous wind chill values in the zero to
minus 10 range during the overnight hours, and wind chills will
likely only reach the teens or lower 20s during the daytime. Highs
should climb to near freezing Tuesday afternoon, with "warmer"
temps in the upper 30s and 40s probably returning by Wednesday.

-Stalley

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro and EPS were not encouraging for the DFW area. It also gets DFW back up to almost 70F next Thursday

If it's not going to snow, then I'm fine with a quick warmup.

[Gotwood]

So at 1-15 00z the GFS shows a LP that has dug its self almost in central Mexico yet it also shows insanely dry air which I am assuming is correlated with the low QPF shown on all the models.

CMC shows a LP in the same location at the same time, as does the Euro. Dew points look to reload a little into central Texas after the front on Friday before the arctic air comes down.

Just trying to learn here thank y’all for the input.

[Gotwood]

00z Euro and EPS were not encouraging for the DFW area. It also gets DFW back up to almost 70F next Thursday

If it's not going to snow, then I'm fine with a quick warmup.

I’m in the same boat I want zero to do with super cold weather if there is no precipitation. This thing seems to be swinging back towards a Dec 22 event, maybe a tad colder. I guess we will see if the reload happens the end of next week to allow for more precipitation chances.

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
533 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Onshore flow should strengthen throughout the day today as the
pressure gradient tightens from a deepening trough over the Plains
and surface cyclone near Saskatchewan/North Dakota. This should lead
to breezy conditions developing throughout the afternoon with higher
gusts mixing down to the surface. Subsequently, this will increase
WAA & moisture advection, ushering in warmer conditions today with
highs in the 60s. PWs remain too dry for any kind of rainfall during
this period, but rising surface moisture should lead to areas of fog
developing across SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Thursday. Forecast soundings show a very robust nocturnal inversion
during this early morning period with light winds at the surface.
Recent rainfall and cooler ground temperatures only adds further
confidence to fog development. Those commuting to work Thursday
morning should be wary of dense fog, especially in areas south of
the I-10 corridor. Lows during this early morning period will be in
the mid 40s/upper 50s.

Warming trend continues throughout the day on Thursday with highs
progged to reach the 70s. Another mid/upper level trough should
sweep across the Central/Southern Plains Thursday Night/Friday
morning. The associated surface low deepens over the TX/OK Panhandle
early in the evening, then tracks NE overnight, draping another
strong cold front across SE Texas during the early morning hours of
Friday. Dynamics with this FROPA look pretty substantial, with a 50-
60 knot LLJ progged to slide in overhead ahead of the FROPA. 6KM
Bulk Shear looks to be in excess of 65 knots region-wide, upwards of
90 knots further N/NW as the front pushes through. However,
instability looks rather low, with MU CAPE ranging from 200-800
J/KG, the highest of which located closer to the coastline and away
from the peak shear with this system. Additional, forecast soundings
are capped during the period, only eroding during the early morning
hours of Friday (either just before or with the FROPA itself).
The front will already be moving through SE Texas by this point,
and looks to be off the coast before sunrise. SPC currently has
portions of the Piney Woods/Lake Livingston area under a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather during this period, with the
rest of SE Texas under a marginal (level 1/5) Risk. The primary
threats from these storms look to be damaging winds and hail, due
to the elevated nature of these storms.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Thursday night`s storm system should be pushing out of the area
with clearing skies, 20-35mph nw winds and cooler conditions in
the wake of the front. Winds should diminish after sunset and a
light freeze is expected across a good part of the region Friday
night, perhaps down to around the US59/I69 corridor. High pressure
moves off to the east on Saturday allow for onshore winds to
resume and slightly warmer conditions into midday Sunday.

Global guidance is currently in fairly great agreement bringing
an Arctic cold front into the area on Sunday (unsurprisingly, most
are a bit faster than previous runs). Most models bring the
leading edge into the northern 1/3 of the CWA in the late
afternoon hours then a good ways off the coast by midnight. As
such, we`ve taken temps down another notch Sunday night across the
region and brings the threat of hard freezes down to about Conroe
overnight. There will probably be enough convergence along the
leading wind shift to squeeze out an iso-sct band of showers along
the wind shift. I will end the mention of precip before freezing
temps arrive. Not that there isn`t a zero chance otherwise - I
just don`t have enough convincing evidence at this junction to go
down that road yet.

Temperature-wise, hard freezes are anticipated across portions of
the area into midweek. Some could very well see extended periods
of subfreezing temperatures. For example, current forecast
reflects that areas northwest of a very rough line from Columbus-
Livingston will struggle to get much above 32F late Sunday night
until Tue afternoon. Further south, there may be some limited
heating during the afternoons, but still struggle to get out of
the 30s.

Key messages & talking points:
- Arctic front is expected Sunday.
- Hard freezes will be a threat for Southeast Texas through
Tuesday night.
- Expect some long durations of subfreezing temperatures.
- Low wind chills are expected.
- There currently is not a strong signal in the models for frozen
precipitation, though we will continue to monitor the situation
and future data.
- Residents should begin cold weather preparations before the
front arrives...ideally by Saturday. Outdoor pipes wrapped,
sprinkler systems protected, have a plan for pets, etc.
- Models will do some flip-flopping (maybe even lose the
significant cold for a time or show armageddon). We`ll be
focusing on the trends...not a single model or model run. The
historically better models that capture the shallow/cold
airmasses will start becoming available in the next couple days.

47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the day. Southerly winds
of 10-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots can be expected this
afternoon, diminishing this evening as winds decouple. Areas of
fog are expected to develop overnight tonight, bringing
widespread LIFR visibility. VLIFR VIS/VV will be possible during
the early morning hours of Thursday. Fog should slowly lift/burn
off after sunrise with VFR conditions prevailing during the day
on Thursday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

Low water conditions are expected around the next low tide cycle
this morning and early afternoon. PETSS guidance suggests values between
-1.0 and -1.5 MLLW. Otherwise, onshore winds will resume today then
increase on Thursday ahead of the next weather system and front
that will move through the area. Look for the front, and
associated thin band of showers to push off the coast between 3am
and 6am Friday. Strong northwest winds, gusting to or above gale
force, and building seas are anticipated in its wake Friday.
Gale Watches/Warnings will likely be required. This will also
bring more significant low water conditions than we`ve already
seen the past days, perhaps between -2.5 and -3.5 MLLW. Onshore
winds resume Saturday followed by the passage of a strong Arctic
cold front Sunday evening. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 47 73 42 / 0 0 10 50
Houston (IAH) 68 53 74 49 / 0 0 10 40
Galveston (GLS) 64 59 68 51 / 0 0 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Low Water Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ330-335.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams

[Cpv17]

00z Euro and EPS were not encouraging for the DFW area. It also gets DFW back up to almost 70F next Thursday

If it's not going to snow, then I'm fine with a quick warmup.

Near 70? What the heck lol wasn’t expecting to hear that. Went from a long duration event to a short one just like that.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

00z Euro and EPS were not encouraging for the DFW area. It also gets DFW back up to almost 70F next Thursday

If it's not going to snow, then I'm fine with a quick warmup.

Near 70? What the heck lol wasn’t expecting to hear that. Went from a long duration event to a short one just like that.

Won’t happen. Not in this pattern