Texas Winter 2019-2020

[South Texas Storms]

Can someone update what they think may happen in Austin ?

Right now I'm thinking areas as far south as Austin and SA could see a dusting. It's still early though. We need the low to close off and track farther southward for a better chance here.

[Texas Snow]

I get the theory on why you’re saying the Canadian solution would be best for DFW snowfall, but when I look at the 0Z snow output and all prior runs all stopping snow west of DFW it does certainly give me pause. Curious on your thoughts.

[HockeyTx82]

DFW zoom using Kuchera

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/dallas/total_snow_kuchera/1580601600/1581055200-jYctRkkeJyM.png

Just shut up and take my money, who do I make the check out to?

Can we just stop the models from running since they control the weather, right?

[Brent]

I get the theory on why you’re saying the Canadian solution would be best for DFW snowfall, but when I look at the 0Z snow output and all prior runs all stopping snow west of DFW it does certainly give me pause. Curious on your thoughts.

Between that and so far the Euro it's why I'm on the fence for sure

I really hope the GFS verifies and I like the bullish ensembles but like as long as we have major usually reliable models showing nothing it's definitely reason to be cautious

[TheProfessor]

I get the theory on why you’re saying the Canadian solution would be best for DFW snowfall, but when I look at the 0Z snow output and all prior runs all stopping snow west of DFW it does certainly give me pause. Curious on your thoughts.

There's a couple things you shouldn't do when forecasting winter weather(Especially professionally) one of them is getting too focused on precip maps. They can lie to you a lot of times. The most important thing you want to do is follow the energy(vorticity) because it will tell you where the heaviest snow will be. I actually think the Canadian went a bit in the wrong direction(towards the GFS) at hour 102 you'd like to see that trough neutral to negative around that time so the system can tap into more moisture(dry air at the midlevels is preventing a snow storm from happening on this run.). But, even so if you look at the vorticity and vertical motion near DFW it hints that with sufficient moisture there should be some heavy snow around there.

[Haris]

Gefs really decreased snow totals

[Texas Snow]

I get the theory on why you’re saying the Canadian solution would be best for DFW snowfall, but when I look at the 0Z snow output and all prior runs all stopping snow west of DFW it does certainly give me pause. Curious on your thoughts.

There's a couple things you shouldn't do when forecasting winter weather(Especially professionally) one of them is getting too focused on precip maps. They can lie to you a lot of times. The most important thing you want to do is follow the energy(vorticity) because it will tell you where the heaviest snow will be. I actually think the Canadian went a bit in the wrong direction(towards the GFS) at hour 102 you'd like to see that trough neutral to negative around that time so the system can tap into more moisture(dry air at the midlevels is preventing a snow storm from happening on this run.). But, even so if you look at the vorticity and vertical motion near DFW it hints that with sufficient moisture there should be some heavy snow around there.

Thanks. I do know that but it’s good to be reminded because sometimes when a map doesn’t show what you like its easy to forget the basics, because, we’ll have you seen the pretty gfs snow maps?

[Brent]

Gefs really decreased snow totals

oh no

[Ntxw]

I get the theory on why you’re saying the Canadian solution would be best for DFW snowfall, but when I look at the 0Z snow output and all prior runs all stopping snow west of DFW it does certainly give me pause. Curious on your thoughts.

There's a couple things you shouldn't do when forecasting winter weather(Especially professionally) one of them is getting too focused on precip maps. They can lie to you a lot of times. The most important thing you want to do is follow the energy(vorticity) because it will tell you where the heaviest snow will be. I actually think the Canadian went a bit in the wrong direction(towards the GFS) at hour 102 you'd like to see that trough neutral to negative around that time so the system can tap into more moisture(dry air at the midlevels is preventing a snow storm from happening on this run.). But, even so if you look at the vorticity and vertical motion near DFW it hints that with sufficient moisture there should be some heavy snow around there.

The surface maps should not even be taken seriously beyond 48 hours, in my opinion.

We all have a saying "you don't want to be in the bulls-eye so far out" for a reason. Think of it like you are driving to your house from work, typically a simple drive but with changing weather conditions, constructions, fallen trees, you really can't expect precise timing of arrival just due to the chaotic nature of these things. Some can delay you a short amount of time or even a long period, drastically changing the arrival outcome time. And these obstacles you can't see until they are close enough within your vision of sight.

[SnowintheFalls]

It really has been a bland winter so far but it is good to see a tiny gimmer of hope for a bit! At this point something is better than nothing.

[Texas Snow]

We all have a saying "you don't want to be in the bulls-eye so far out" for a reason.

I do agree with your point overall, however I’ve always felt like this quote is more superstition than fact.

If you tell me that point A is the forecasted epicenter of a storm system that has the ability to go north south east or west of me , then I would still rather be at point A than any of the other locations ( three of which would be the furthest away possible from where it actually hits) Since point A still has an equal shot of being the epicenter, or at least getting the glancing blow from any of the other directions it goes.

[Ntxw]

We all have a saying "you don't want to be in the bulls-eye so far out" for a reason.

I do agree with your point overall, however I’ve always felt like this quote is more superstition than fact.

If you tell me that point A is the forecasted epicenter of a storm system that has the ability to go north south east or west of me , then I would still rather be at point A than any of the other locations ( three of which would be the furthest away possible from where it actually hits) Since point A still has an equal shot of being the epicenter, or at least getting the glancing blow from any of the other directions it goes.

This is true, it is better to be in it. But it is always good to look at the upper levels first. If the upper levels trend poorly then you know future runs will likely take it away no matter how good the snow maps look now. On the other hand if the upper levels trend well, then we can make a good guess as we get closer it will likely show more snow as the time gets nearer. It is a better future indicator of runs than "24 inches of snow on the 0z GFS"

[Texas Snow]

Agreed!

(Although the gfs map is so pretty )

[Brent]

Agreed!

(Although the gfs map is so pretty )

Definitely save worthy I don't really view them as realistic at this point 84 hours out

But 2010 did happen

[Brent]

Euro is still not even close DFW is near 40 degrees

[Cerlin]

Euro has consistently been too warm this winter and is by far being the least progressive of any of the major models thus far. I’m not putting any stock into it at this juncture.

Let me say, though, that I love seeing LIFE in the forum again. We added 4 pages really quickly and I’m excited to see how this system progresses.

[TheProfessor]

The Euro is very close, the two issues are a warm nose and surface temps near 34 degrees. The Canadian is even closer. Another thing is that the models are drying out the mid to upper levels fairly quickly as well. However, once again, I wouldn't worry about any of the surface weather until we get the trough orientation figured out first and until within the last 24 hours. If the models are still showing surface temps in the mid 30s with a large warm nose, then you can panic.

[TheProfessor]

Euro has consistently been too warm this winter and is by far being the least progressive of any of the major models thus far. I’m not putting any stock into it at this juncture.

Let me say, though, that I love seeing LIFE in the forum again. We added 4 pages really quickly and I’m excited to see how this system progresses.

Least progressive is definitely the UkMet, but I definitely think you will see something between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the trough.

[Brent]

The Euro does spit out some token flakes maybe a patchy dusting Wednesday Night but meh

[Ntxw]

Euro has consistently been too warm this winter and is by far being the least progressive of any of the major models thus far. I’m not putting any stock into it at this juncture.

Let me say, though, that I love seeing LIFE in the forum again. We added 4 pages really quickly and I’m excited to see how this system progresses.

Least progressive is definitely the UkMet, but I definitely think you will see something between the GFS and Euro when it comes to the trough.

Man the 500mb heights on the Euro are really low for our neck of the woods. With movement, I can't help but recollect the 09 Christmas Eve blizzard as I was scanning through the upper level charts. I cannot recall a storm in recent memory aside from that one that went that low (well into 530s).

If those heights are true then cold air is likely highly underestimated. Also it would be a huge wind event that the models have yet to signify.

That system most guidance favored the same areas the Euro is now prior to the event