Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

Middle 80s?

Sir.

[Iceresistance]

ECR is weaker on the 12z Euro compared to the 0z run.

[harp]

ECR is weaker on the 12z Euro compared to the 0z run.

What does that mean?

[Iceresistance]

ECR is weaker on the 12z Euro compared to the 0z run.

What does that mean?

The cold is much more easily shunted to the east. the ECR (East Coast Ridge) forces it further west towards here.

[Ntxw]

ECR is weaker on the 12z Euro compared to the 0z run.

What does that mean?

The cold is much more easily shunted to the east. the ECR (East Coast Ridge) forces it further west towards here.

Looks about the same as its prior runs with minor differences here and there. System is even more amped. Dry cold.

[rwfromkansas]

Until there is more agreement between Euro and GFS I’m not going all in but liking the GFS today.

Honestly even if we get missed if it misses I-95 that’s a win. Lol. The Midwest needs a good storm too.

[Ntxw]

Until there is more agreement between Euro and GFS I’m not going all in but liking the GFS today.

Honestly even if we get missed if it misses I-95 that’s a win. Lol. The Midwest needs a good storm too.

We're not missing the cold, all of the models are in great agreement best you can ask for. You can still consider shaving off degrees from the OPs. It's drilling due south at the surface. We're hoping and gnashing teeth over the big system for a huge comeback!



Euro has been correcting colder for Friday morning.

[rwfromkansas]

Until there is more agreement between Euro and GFS I’m not going all in but liking the GFS today.

Honestly even if we get missed if it misses I-95 that’s a win. Lol. The Midwest needs a good storm too.

We're not missing the cold, all of the models are in great agreement best you can ask for. You can still consider shaving off degrees from the OPs. It's drilling due south at the surface. We're hoping and gnashing teeth over the big system for a huge comeback!

https://i.imgur.com/KkOBV5h.gif

Good points the cold is coming regardless at least!

[Iceresistance]

If this is true, then the last Euro run should be treated with a grain of salt

 https://twitter.com/MeteoMark/status/1604182706111275017

[Garnetcat5]

I wish we just knew what was coming! In Houston area on a well. Since I will probably have to shut down the well and drain the pipes it may mean canceling Christmas at my house. Can’t have company with no running water. Feb21 was a nightmare! No water, no power for a week was miserable. Preparing is costly and I have to start today. I hate this! Yea for those who love it but for a lot of us it’s miserable and expensive. Ug

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1604121759283806208

[drred4]

I wish we just knew what was coming! In Houston area on a well. Since I will probably have to shut down the well and drain the pipes it may mean canceling Christmas at my house. Can’t have company with no running water. Feb21 was a nightmare! No water, no power for a week was miserable. Preparing is costly and I have to start today. I hate this! Yea for those who love it but for a lot of us it’s miserable and expensive. Ug

I am north of Bryan in 2021 it was -2 here. My outside well head did not freeze. Had running water in house. Had cabinets where sinks were opened and if electricity went off I just used a small gas heater by the well head. Wood fireplace inside

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I wish we just knew what was coming! In Houston area on a well. Since I will probably have to shut down the well and drain the pipes it may mean canceling Christmas at my house. Can’t have company with no running water. Feb21 was a nightmare! No water, no power for a week was miserable. Preparing is costly and I have to start today. I hate this! Yea for those who love it but for a lot of us it’s miserable and expensive. Ug

I am north of Bryan in 2021 it was -2 here. My outside well head did not freeze. Had running water in house. Had cabinets where sinks were opened and if electricity went off I just used a small gas heater by the well head. Wood fireplace inside

While were discussing ideas, I had a pool while in Sugar Land. Instead of running it 24/7 for a week, i was forced to try something when the power went out and it worked beautifully.
I turned off the pool pump, drained the main tank, and at the catch can that catches leaves and such before the pool pump, i opened it to release all the pressure in the system. I opened the catch can, let the pressure equalize, then screwed it back on. I did this at 4am Tuesday morning when it was 13F at my place. I left it till i returned from Tampa Monday morning with ZERO issues at all. Give this a shot. Should also save lots of energy and stress on the grid.

[Snowman67]

There are a couple of really good GEFS members which would make a lot of us happy.

Middle 80s?

They said "a lot of us", not the heat miser

[Brent]

Until there is more agreement between Euro and GFS I’m not going all in but liking the GFS today.

Honestly even if we get missed if it misses I-95 that’s a win. Lol. The Midwest needs a good storm too.

Yeah I'm not believing anything here yet but that GFS run was an eye opener and I can't get my mind off of it. I mean we've been saying it had historic potential all week and honestly most of our storms didn't really show up til about 5 days out anyway... Its definitely got my attention

[SnowintheFalls]

Until there is more agreement between Euro and GFS I’m not going all in but liking the GFS today.

Honestly even if we get missed if it misses I-95 that’s a win. Lol. The Midwest needs a good storm too.

Yeah I'm not believing anything here yet but that GFS run was an eye opener and I can't get my mind off of it. I mean we've been saying it had historic potential all week and honestly most of our storms didn't really show up til about 5 days out anyway... Its definitely got my attention

Looking like the cold is going to be there. The chances for snow seem to be much better for Oklahoma than N TX.

[Texas Snow]

I wish we just knew what was coming! In Houston area on a well. Since I will probably have to shut down the well and drain the pipes it may mean canceling Christmas at my house. Can’t have company with no running water. Feb21 was a nightmare! No water, no power for a week was miserable. Preparing is costly and I have to start today. I hate this! Yea for those who love it but for a lot of us it’s miserable and expensive. Ug

Can you put Christmas lights around it (or similar idea) and buy a small generator that would power them plus lamps in your house? I saved my palm trees with Xmas lights, bubble wrap, and a generator when it was -2 here by doing that and used the excess power for lights in the house, refrigerators, and the space heater. Would hate for you to cancel Christmas for the low likelihood of long-term power outage while this would at least prepare you to endure if it happened.

While were discussing ideas, I had a pool while in Sugar Land. Instead of running it 24/7 for a week, i was forced to try something when the power went out and it worked beautifully.
I turned off the pool pump, drained the main tank, and at the catch can that catches leaves and such before the pool pump, i opened it to release all the pressure in the system. I opened the catch can, let the pressure equalize, then screwed it back on. I did this at 4am Tuesday morning when it was 13F at my place. I left it till i returned from Tampa Monday morning with ZERO issues at all. Give this a shot. Should also save lots of energy and stress on the grid.

I’m considering this. For various reasons, including a pump motor that went out below 20°and being without power for four days in 2021. I spent my fair share of time dealing with freezing pool equipment mid crisis.

In 2021 I had to wait until one day when we had power for 15 minutes to try to thaw out the motor and then get everything drained. I think that high that day was in the upper single digits and my wet hand kept freezing to the pool pump. Needless to say, I may heed your advice and just drain ahead of time so thanks for reminding me!

[Brent]

TWC app has me down to -1 Friday and it still doesn't have nearly as much snow as the GFS

[Iceresistance]

TWC app has me down to -1 Friday and it still doesn't have nearly as much snow as the GFS

For my area, it's down to 0°F

[wxman57]

I wish we just knew what was coming! In Houston area on a well. Since I will probably have to shut down the well and drain the pipes it may mean canceling Christmas at my house. Can’t have company with no running water. Feb21 was a nightmare! No water, no power for a week was miserable. Preparing is costly and I have to start today. I hate this! Yea for those who love it but for a lot of us it’s miserable and expensive. Ug

I'm watching the Houston area closely. Good temps we'll drop below freezing late Thursday evening. Low 22-25 Friday morning. May struggle to reach freezing Friday afternoon, then down to the mid 20s on Saturday morning. We could see 36-40 hours sub-freezing. That's cold enough to be concerned about pipes. If you're heading out of town (anyone out there), I would strongly suggest shutting off water to your house and draining the pipes before you leave.

Here is a plot of the morning models. Note that there is quite a lot of uncertainty as far as the temps, as there isn't even a cold airmass to track yet. I think the Canadian (blue and dashed blue lines) is likely too cold. European ensemble (dashed orange) may be a good start.