Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Portastorm]

Temps are running about 3 degrees cooler across DFW vs what the 12z Euro showed for 18z today. Also, temps are running a tad colder already at +1hr vs the 18z HRRR.

Temperatures underachieved today even down here in Austin. The 4 am forecast from NWS showed low 50s for us. A mid morning forecast update lowered those expectations to upper 40s. As of 3pm under thick clouds we have not climbed above 45. Most places around Travis County are actually in the low 40s.

[bubba hotep]

18z 3k NAM has the northern burbs hanging out at 33F with heavy rain for a good potion of tomorrow. Temp bust 2 or 3 degrees low might result in some icing on elevated surfaces or we stay at 33 & cold rain.

[SouthernMet]

The question is, is the RGEM sniffing something out, or is it on crack? Will CAA dig deeper south, or are the operational models correct keeping us above freezing? Fwiw, WRF-ARW is pretty similar to what RGEM/CMC are showing. Imo, there is going to be a pretty tight gradient in who sees significant ice accumulations and who doesn’t in ntx. For example, Weatherford could get hit hard, Fort Worth could see minor accumulations, while Dallas gets completely left out..

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... s_sc&dpdt=

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS is faster and farther south with the system, gets snow into NW DFW. Looks like Decatur and far north Tarrant County make out pretty good (based on the various snow maps out there)

[cheezyWXguy]

The question is, is the RGEM sniffing something out, or is it on crack? Will CAA dig deeper south, or are the operational models correct keeping us above freezing? Fwiw, WRF-ARW is pretty similar to what RGEM/CMC are showing. Imo, there is going to be a pretty tight gradient in who sees significant ice accumulations and who doesn’t in ntx. For example, Weatherford could get hit hard, Fort Worth could see minor accumulations, while Dallas gets completely left out..

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php ... s_sc&dpdt=

18z gfs shifts slightly south with storm track, with southward movement of the accumulation swath and slightly colder temps for dfw than the 12z. Even though all models are still marginal on temps, it is interesting how they’ve all trended gradually south with the storm track over the last 36 hours and seem to still be doing so. One of yesterday’s NAM runs had the low at the ok/ks border, while today’s 18z has it riding I-20, like the 18z GFS

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line is sagging down between Denton (34F) and Decatur (32F) and then back to the SW towards Possum Kingdom, as of 4:15pm.

Update - looks like Mineral Wells dropped to freezing at 4:30 pm.

[SouthernMet]

Freezing line is sagging down between Denton (34F) and Decatur (32F) and then back to the SW towards Possum Kingdom, as of 4:15pm.

HRRR initialized the freeze line back towards Young & Stephens county, when in reality it’s pushing into Azle/Sanger line if you look at real-time temps. Someone is going to get a surprise tomorrow if these trends keep up. I’m not ringing the alarm bells yet but it does look like Fort Worth could get more than progged currently.

[bubba hotep]

Freezing line is sagging down between Denton (34F) and Decatur (32F) and then back to the SW towards Possum Kingdom, as of 4:15pm.

HRRR initialized the freeze line back towards Young & Stephens county, when in reality it’s pushing into Azle/Sanger line if you look at real-time temps. Someone is going to get a surprise tomorrow if these trends keep up. I’m not ringing the alarm bells yet but it does look like Fort Worth could get more than progged currently.

My interest will go up a bit if we see Denton and Ft. Worth Alliance drop from 34 to freezing over the next couple of hours.

[SouthernMet]

Freezing line is sagging down between Denton (34F) and Decatur (32F) and then back to the SW towards Possum Kingdom, as of 4:15pm.

HRRR initialized the freeze line back towards Young & Stephens county, when in reality it’s pushing into Azle/Sanger line if you look at real-time temps. Someone is going to get a surprise tomorrow if these trends keep up. I’m not ringing the alarm bells yet but it does look like Fort Worth could get more than progged currently.

My interest will go up a bit if we see Denton and Ft. Worth Alliance drop from 34 to freezing over the next couple of hours.

Yup, and for what it’s worth, there are 12 Wunderground wx sites in NW tarrant that are already at 33 right now.

If this cold air advection keeps digging SE at this rate, we’ll be in business in Fort Worth.

[gboudx]

Good luck with the ice to y’all in Ft Worth. I’m expecting cold rain here in Rockwall. Freezing rain can have its own beauty. I took some really cool pics when we had an ice storm in 2013 or 14. Don’t remember which year it was.

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the 15z SREF busted low by 10F at OKC (including a pretty amazing 7F lower than the coldest member), so the air to our north looks a lot colder than the models expected. Do we see any changes at 00z?

[SouthernMet]

It looks like the 15z SREF busted low by 10F at OKC (including a pretty amazing 7F lower than the coldest member), so the air to our north looks a lot colder than the models expected. Do we see any changes at 00z?

I was just looking at that too. SREF members think it’s 39 right now in Mineral Wells, where they are reporting 31-32.

[Wthrlvrmom]

31 degrees currently at my house here in Aledo (15 miles west of Fort Worth), however, NWS says it’s 35 currently. 4 degree real-time difference.

[funster]

Seems to be trending colder but buzzkiller NWS FW peeps say no change:

3:40 PM Update: The forecast remains generally unchanged, and there are no current plans to expand the existing Winter Weather Advisory. While it is possible some light freezing rain could affect western fringes of the DFW area, any impacts should be minimal.

https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status ... 5571273729

[rwfromkansas]

Temps are running a bit colder, but with our luck stronger WAA will wind up beating out the cold anyway. We are very close though. Places just barely west are at 33.

[TheProfessor]

Weather Bug said it was down to 32 in Roanoke just a bit ago.

[BrokenGlass]

I’m currently at 38 with a dew point of 31. I head back to the office tomorrow after 2 1/2 weeks off. I’ve got cabin fever and am looking forward to going in...weather permitting.


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[Ntxw]

DFW is at 36 with 28 DP. Wet bulb gets that lower. But we'll probably fall some more as the evening goes. Sitting around 30-32 is drastically different outcomes than 33-34.

In other news, OKC is under winter storm watches again. But largely the consensus is this may miss them to the south again with lower qpf.

[snowballzzz]

33 and slowly dropping here in Justin

[Ntxw]

Going back on the Euro run today, late in the run the model is teeing up the ball for maybe another cold front and system. System looks weak now but the trend this year is for them to make more noise in the medium range (then disappoint us ) and the model also shows 1047mb HP after pooling some cold air in NW Canada.