Texas Winter 2024-2025

[ThunderSleetDreams]

ICON looks great on a snowfall map but that looks more typical of an elevation type event out in west Texas and as you get closer to the DFW metroplex precip never quite makes it or transitions to liquid. Temp profiles borderline elsewhere with surface temps in the mid to upper 30's across N TX. A lot of moisture (maybe too much with dews climbing in the low 30's Thursday afternoon) without enough cold air around.

I also remember one point hearing there's the geographical area East/Northeast of the DFW that those mountains tend to bottle up cold air that tend to seep down from that area so that could also play a role we're kind of in a bowl.

Still not zero in plenty of time for things to change.

I think you may be referring to the Ouchita mountains effect on East Texas perhaps? I don't think they affect DFW as much as they do from let's say a line from Paris/Sulphur Springs and points east. I have seen this feature brought up periodically when talking about winter weather events and severe storms. Hopefully someone can give more insight, but I think it was a warmer air damming feature that keeps ETX icy while NCTX might get sleet/snow.

Correct. It focuses mostly on Deep East Texas like Longview, Lufkin, Nac and can sometimes affect as far south as the Houston area.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

7 and forecasted to be in 2 by mid-month.

Isn’t that too fast? Don’t phases 3,4,5 suck for us during the winter? Was hoping you’d say it wouldn’t reach phase 2 till mid February lol

There is some lag and there's no definitive verification it will be that fast, it can slow down if the background favors it like how it crawled through 6. I think we're good until end of January and the opening days of February. After that, if I'm being honest the trajectory of the MJO would then not be favorable on the right side. But like anything else that's trying to predict it a month away.

If you're using 1977 and 1985 for progression analogs, after late Jan/Feb cold period...it warms up and nothing much happens the rest of those winters.

Yeah current forecast of MJO, probably keeps us below normal the rest of the month with an occasional normal day or two of relaxation before next shot of cold.

Mid-Late January could see a very large shot of bitter air.

[Throckmorton]

ICON deterministic (Jan. 3, 12Z) forecasts around 9.3 inches of wet snow for Austin on Wednesday–Thursday when surface temps will be marginal at 31–32°. The first round ends around noon on Wednesday with the second round from midnight to 4 pm Thursday. Nothing for south and east of there.

Temps start plenty cold enough in British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan. But not much of that makes it to Texas. Most goes east and southeast from there.

February could have much below average temps.

[txtwister78]

I personally think we've got one more shot (perhaps two) mid-month or just after before MJO potentially gets into the "winter is over" period as head into February

[Stratton23]

GEFS still has a way better snowfall signal in se texas and central texas compared to the OP runs, seems their is major disagreement between the op and ensembles

[txtwister78]

12z Euro definitely went warmer Wednesday afternoon. 45 at noon in SA on Wednesday with high around 50. Upper 30's to low 40's in the Panhandle.

Edit: All the true arctic air is well NE across Iowa stretching back across the Ohio Valley. Some of that is probably snow accumulation effect as well from the storm they're about to get walloped with over the weekend

[sphelps8681]

The only thing I am sure of right now is a severe weather event for my area in SE Tx for Sunday. One weather event at a time for me.

[txtwister78]

Euro finally brings system out Friday but it's all elevation driven out in west Texas by then. Just not enough cold.

Cold rain across most areas. Yuck.

[Ntxw]

Euro finally brings system out Friday but it's all elevation driven out in west Texas by then. Just not enough cold.

Cold rain across most areas. Yuck.

It's disturbances being shot out. The main system doesn't really come out on this run still spinning in Mexico.

[txtwister78]

Unbelievable...euro cranking out over 2 inches of rain across San Antonio. Imagine if we had enough cold to work with. My goodness. But despite the temps, we still need the rain as we're still in a significant drought.

[wxman22]

[Portastorm]

Unbelievable...euro cranking out over 2 inches of rain across San Antonio. Imagine if we had enough cold to work with. My goodness. But despite the temps, we still need the rain as we're still in a significant drought.

Given the developing drought conditions here and Nina ... and watching system after system this past autumn underperform in the QPF department, I'm very skeptical of these amounts.

[Stratton23]

Id rather it be 105 degrees outside than have cold rain, it just flat out sucks, really hoping the cold air out performs, because today’s runs have been very discouraging

[txtwister78]

Unbelievable...euro cranking out over 2 inches of rain across San Antonio. Imagine if we had enough cold to work with. My goodness. But despite the temps, we still need the rain as we're still in a significant drought.

Given the developing drought conditions here and Nina ... and watching system after system this past autumn underperform in the QPF department, I'm very skeptical of these amounts.

Yeah I agree although we really haven't had a system out of the SW like this (at least modeled) for quite some time. Most of our misses have been systems that miss us well to the north (cutters) or too flat. At least that's a different signal for the time being.

[Throckmorton]

Euro and GFS have Austin reaching highs in the 40s next Wednesday and Thursday.

[Ntxw]

Id rather it be 105 degrees outside than have cold rain, it just flat out sucks, really hoping the cold air out performs, because today’s runs have been very discouraging

Keep hope my friend. It's not over until it happens, there's no trophy for being the winner or loser mother nature does what she does. Until the system is in the network it's all model watching!

[Stratton23]

Ntxw I hope so, i definitely am guilty of still getting caught up with every model run, im just hoping when the short range models get into range, that they have a better handle on the temperatures, dont need anything crazy cold, even 32-33 degrees would be enough for a decent event

[txtwister78]

Id rather it be 105 degrees outside than have cold rain, it just flat out sucks, really hoping the cold air out performs, because today’s runs have been very discouraging

Keep hope my friend. It's not over until it happens, there's no trophy for being the winner or loser mother nature does what she does. Until the system is in the network it's all model watching!

Yup. On the bright side, the Euro is always the warmest of the bunch and that seems to be the case again here. You can see why the GEFS members like Central Texas and the HC though for snow because a few degress colder and snow could still be flying a bit further south. Euro still has snow obviously but a little further north before dews really begin to warm and you get the transition to all liquid.

[gpsnowman]

Cold rain isn't my favorite but it is rain. And that's good at any temperature. Maybe we can get some snow with it still being just above freezing at the surface. All about the column.

[MississippiWx]

I’m hoping this is a case of the models losing the cold air in the mid-late range and they will bring it back. Cold air certainly didn’t seem to be the negative, but seems like it’s all being swept to the east too quickly now.