Texas Winter 2015-2016

[orangeblood]

yep euro is with CMC, man these models crazy crazy

But Euro is much more bullish with the system on Monday....IMO, this one is the one to watch, has much more energy/colder air to work with

[stormlover2013]

oh just give it 3 more days it with flop again lol lol, i was getting excited and now I am frustrated lol

[srainhoutx]

You folks are going to wear yourselves out trusting any of the OP guidance in this Hemispheric Pattern. Watch the ensembles for anything reasonably close to an actual sensible solution from Day 3 on...

[stormlover2013]

strain what is your gut telling you, I know alot of weatherman sometime have a gut feeling

[srainhoutx]

strain what is your gut telling you, I know alot of weatherman sometime have a gut feeling

I'm hunger. My gut says it's lunchtime...

[stormlover2013]

lol

[wxman57]

Frozen precip is borderline for Dallas-Ft. Worth and northward next weekend. Cold rain there may trail off to some snow after noon. No big snow event, though. For southeast Texas, the forecast is easier - rain with temperatures in the 50s/60s followed by colder temps. Possible a very light freeze across northern Harris County next Sunday. The air across Texas just won't be cold enough for a big snow event here.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

DH's map from 2011 shows a bit more moisture with it. Looks like it has a tad more moisture from the pacific to work with. Im confident the SJT will pull through though

[Ralph's Weather]

The set-up for Saturday looks so good I would hate for it to be wasted by a couple degrees near the surface with such a deep and cold saturated layer above. With such a large area of sub-zero temps in the Plains it seems likely that we will see more of it filter down than currently modeled. Moisture return is always a question until you get pretty close to the event. The 2010 event was expected to be a fairly light one also.

[TheProfessor]

The set-up for Saturday looks so good I would hate for it to be wasted by a couple degrees near the surface with such a deep and cold saturated layer above. With such a large area of sub-zero temps in the Plains it seems likely that we will see more of it filter down than currently modeled. Moisture return is always a question until you get pretty close to the event. The 2010 event was expected to be a fairly light one also.

Yeah I remember telling all my friends in middle school that I thought we could get 10 inches of snow (we got 14 when all said in done). They all laughed at me, though I'm sure they didn't mind being wrong lol

[stormlover2013]

GFS will fix it self in the 18z run

[Tireman4]

strain what is your gut telling you, I know alot of weatherman sometime have a gut feeling

I'm hunger. My gut says it's lunchtime...

Woo Hoo. Met humor. Ladies and Gentlemen, he is here all week. Please tip your waitress!!

[Yukon Cornelius]

[Texas Snowman]

Meanwhile, on this date back in 1985. Oh, if only Champ the Charger had been around 31 years ago! Can you imagine the fun that Portastorm would have had during that historic Central Texas snowstorm!!

Even Heat Miser would have had fun in this rare San Antonio snow event.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/30-years-ago-San-Antonio-covered-in-snow-5983684.php

[Tireman4]

It will happen again. I just know it.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z GFS is very similar to 12Z for Saturday maybe slightly better. The I-20 corridor still looks like it needs a bit cooler surface temps for an accumulating snow, but at this range it could be 32 or 42. I would like to see a bit more moisture with tins to overcome the warmish surface.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Well they took that out of the forecast quick.

[EnnisTx]

Such a boring forecast!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST TUE JAN 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS WITH NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY BEING DOMINATED BY A NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER RIDGE. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RESULT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS /LOWS IN THE 30S & 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S/ AS WE
AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF OUT NEXT SET OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.

THE FIRST AND SECOND SYSTEMS ARE A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE WEST U.S. COAST.
ONE TROUGH RESIDES IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND IS CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE COAST OF OREGON...THE OTHER JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COASTS. THE TWO FEATURES ARE PROGGED
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...EVENTUALLY MERGING AS A SINGLE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY.

GOOD SHEAR AND DECENT LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT
THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE REGION DRY. GULF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO GET TAPPED ACROSS
THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMAL...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS THURSDAY. THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE NOW SINGLE SHORTWAVE RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ON THE
HEELS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
EXPECTED AREA-WIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM THE FOUR-
CORNERS REGION INTO NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS
TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONGER COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL
BRING A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTH INTO TEXAS. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD. MODEL
THICKNESSES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF I-20...BUT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE SHOULD KEEP MOST
OF THIS IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR COLDEST
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE RED RIVER...WE HAVE ADDED A
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY WOULD BE
MINIMAL...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.

BELOW-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD BET SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. DECREASING
CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS ON SUNDAY TO REACH THE UPPER 40S AND
50S.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
/ALBEIT WEAKER/ SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

[Ralph's Weather]

Unless we can get more moisture involved this looks like a cold showery Saturday with some snow mixed in but only accumulating along the Red River. More moisture and maybe it comes down hard enough to stick, but with more moisture we risk the atmosphere getting too warm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18z i digging a bit more.