Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Tireman4]

As Wxman 57 has preached to us over and over. First, do not trust model run to model run, even if they are way off each time. Second, until it is 5-7 days out, it is fairy tale land. Lastly, I think he mentioned Monday as the runs to start paying attention to. Long days and lots of time until the event. Stay tuned and be patient. For you folks in the "this weekend mode" , we have rain and maybe thunder this way for Saturday.

[Tireman4]

12z Euro EPS from today vs 12z yesterday tells the tale and it's not a happy one.

Yesterday:

[img]http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121512/noram/eps_z500a_noram_192.png

Today

[img]http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017121612/noram/eps_z500a_noram_168.png

This D7 timeframe is when the last couple of big model systems fell apart. Maybe things flip back at 00z on the EPS. The 18z GFS will be telling...

Will it though? Even if it shows something we all like, it probably still won’t have a full grasp on how the pattern will evolve. These southern stream ULLs are something the models have been notoriously bad at handling in the past. Regardless of how the event eventually pans out I have a feeling we’ll be looking back on these days as a case study for how the model consensus evolves in future situations. I see now why wxman57 has been saying that he won’t be putting any stock in the models over the next few days

Yep, I would say Monday before we start seeing a narrowing of the models and the runs being more consistent.

[cheezyWXguy]

so far on the 18z gfs, the storm appears slightly stronger and is digging a little further west. Food for thought...

[gpsnowman]

so far on the 18z gfs, the storm appears slightly stronger and is digging a little further west. Food for thought...

Watch the GFS nail this. It has been too consistent for a week now. Something will happen somewhere.

[cheezyWXguy]

so far on the 18z gfs, the storm appears slightly stronger and is digging a little further west. Food for thought...

Watch the GFS nail this. It has been too consistent for a week now. Something will happen somewhere.

It is quite consistent with the 12z so far, and not a whole lot different than the 6z, although the storm is strongest on the 18z.
Front passing through the western zones of NTX at hour 138.
Edit: Spoke too soon. After 138 it weakens it quite quickly and tilts it positive. This probably wont be our favorite run either.

[Ntxw]

I can't believe no one posted this of the Euro late run. If you ignore the surface, the spill is just as spectacular as what the GFS had!

[Brent]

Hmmm Friday is much warmer widespread rain but temps are in the upper 40s

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is going to do a double barrel low again. The storm we've been watching (22-23rd) then secondary system Christmas Day. Canadian. A few days ago model has the first storm as meandering cutoff low.

It's going to be another cold run

[JayDT]

18z GFS is going to do a double barrel low again. The storm we've been watching (22-23rd) then secondary system Christmas Day. Canadian.

But the first storm happens to be all rain so far in this run, right?

[Ntxw]

18z GFS is going to do a double barrel low again. The storm we've been watching (22-23rd) then secondary system Christmas Day. Canadian.

But the first storm happens to be all rain so far in this run, right?

Yes, except the far NW areas. But it's a completely different set up now and phase for major cold Christmas. Before the second area of vorticity was a blip, now a full blown storm on it's own.

[cheezyWXguy]

Hmmm Friday is much warmer widespread rain but temps are in the upper 40s

Seems to be a result of the evolution of that upper low. Despite the fact that the 18z has the low the strongest of any the prior 4 gfs runs as it moves south, it completely shears it out once it reaches AZ. Seems rather sudden to me.

[Brent]

I dunno if this run gonna do it unless theres a 2nd part near Christmas

[Ntxw]

I dunno if this run gonna do it unless theres a 2nd part near Christmas

Sprawling trough Christmas Eve to the west. I think this run is going to break out snow on Christmas Southern Plains

[aggiecutter]

With all the consternation about the lack of rainfall, I can't believe this hasn't been posted:

[Brent]

Too warm rain Christmas Eve

Looks like a storm developing Christmas Day

[starsfan65]

Too warm rain Christmas Eve

Looks like a storm developing Christmas Day

What is the temps on Christmas Eve?

[Brent]

Temperatures in the 40s Christmas Eve

Ice just west of DFW Christmas Day

Ice pushing into DFW Christmas Night

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Temp output on this run is trash... next run

Front stalls as for 4 days on the TX/LA border... yeah, no, that isn’t happening

[Brent]

Massive torch in the east this run

[hriverajr]

Temp output on this run is trash... next run

Front stalls as for 4 days on the TX/LA border... yeah, no, that isn’t happening

Yep temp run is trash..

Also trough weakens not really swinging through, a general troughiness remains to the west of Texas into the day after christmas.