Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

Even with the warm up on the models they are still just above freezing so would only take minor changes to get back to snow for much of the state. Just need a bit faster ejection and or a bit stronger surface high to our NE. At least we are not dealing with a big warm nose.

[Portastorm]

Unbelievable...euro cranking out over 2 inches of rain across San Antonio. Imagine if we had enough cold to work with. My goodness. But despite the temps, we still need the rain as we're still in a significant drought.

Given the developing drought conditions here and Nina ... and watching system after system this past autumn underperform in the QPF department, I'm very skeptical of these amounts.

Yeah I agree although we really haven't had a system out of the SW like this (at least modeled) for quite some time. Most of our misses have been systems that miss us well to the north (cutters) or too flat. At least that's a different signal for the time being.

That is true! I'll take the cold rain too. Although I'd much prefer a wintry precip event.

[orangeblood]

Latest 12Z Ensemble Suites Snowfall forecast for next week

Euro Ens


GEFS


GEPS

[Ntxw]

Latest 12Z Ensemble Suites Snowfall forecast for next week

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-0CIvXEsPz9I.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-5yZqZUsNC4E.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-u5LVHkwyais.png

I will take the qpf upticks. About a week back was concerned the trough would not dig enough west and it would be a dry frontal passage. But we clearly have moved into a full bore winter storm type trough in the southwest. That in itself is quite the feat given our recent memory of fast flow, take it.

[txtwister78]

Latest 12Z Ensemble Suites Snowfall forecast for next week

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-0CIvXEsPz9I.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-5yZqZUsNC4E.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-u5LVHkwyais.png

Still some pretty decent signals showing up for snow on ensembles even if temps are borderline. This may very well come down to just a few degrees either way and not talking about just pure surface temps. As everyone knows you can still get snow above 32 degrees. Those can actually be heavy hitters.

[orangeblood]

Latest 12Z Ensemble Suites Snowfall forecast for next week

Euro Ens
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-0CIvXEsPz9I.png

GEFS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-5yZqZUsNC4E.png

GEPS
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/cmc-ensemble-all-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1735905600/1736640000-u5LVHkwyais.png

I will take the qpf upticks. About a week back was concerned the trough would not dig enough west and it would be a dry frontal passage. But we clearly have moved into a full bore winter storm type trough in the southwest. That in itself is quite the feat given our recent memory of fast flow, take it.

Yep, give me a borderline high qpf event over a dry bitter cold/begging for snow flurries type event 100% of the time

[Tammie]

Hey gang. Just wanted to refresh your memories a little bit! I’ve been on this board for well over 12 years. I have a question for you. What happens to the models 92% of the time in the 3-5 day timeframe? Almost every event, every year. What happens that makes us all want to #CancelWinter? I know. Do you?

[snownado]

Id rather it be 105 degrees outside than have cold rain, it just flat out sucks

We're in 100% agreement there...

[Gotwood]

Hey gang. Just wanted to refresh your memories a little bit! I’ve been on this board for well over 12 years. I have a question for you. What happens to the models 92% of the time in the 3-5 day timeframe? Almost every event, every year. What happens that makes us all want to #CancelWinter? I know. Do you?

We can’t help it. I feel I just need my snow fix haha.

[Stratton23]

On another note, ensembles really dont show much warmth even going into the long range , in fact they are in very impressive agreement on a new - EPO alaskan ridge forming mid- late month, trough starts retrograding back to the west, dont think we are down with winter yet

[Sambucol2024]

You have to laugh at the run-to-run GFS. It's like a slot machine. Put another coin in and pull the handle every 6 hours for a completely different solution. I have not identified any model trend yet. They all have different solutions, often with each run. Give it another 2-3 days for some agreement to appear and a trend to be identified.

Ha! And then there's the Canadian with a forecast of 11F here next Saturday.

Just wondering where your avatar went? It’s not showing up on my end.

[txtwister78]

On another note, ensembles really dont show much warmth even going into the long range , in fact they are in very impressive agreement on a new - EPO alaskan ridge forming mid- late month, trough starts retrograding back to the west, dont think we are down with winter yet

When the PNA starts going neutral to slightly negative, then we're talking. -EPO huge player in establishing arctic air but just part of the equation for us further south. Good news is they're signs that could be taking place around mid-month timeframe which I feel might end up being the best opportunity left on the table before things really begin to shift further west going into Feb and pattern flips.

[Ntxw]

On another note, ensembles really dont show much warmth even going into the long range , in fact they are in very impressive agreement on a new - EPO alaskan ridge forming mid- late month, trough starts retrograding back to the west, dont think we are down with winter yet

The signal is getting stronger. Deep winter will be Jan 15-Feb 5th imo. The mean trough will be very favorable for the Great Plains.

[captainbarbossa19]

Hi everyone! Happy New Year! It has been a while and I officially have one semester left before I earn my bachelor's in professional meteorology! I am really excited to almost be finished. Last semester, I was selected for a research internship in tropical meteorology with one of my professors at Mississippi State and I will be presenting my findings at the AMS student conference next weekend in New Orleans! Hopefully, things will not be too crazy given the horrible tragedy that happened on New Year's Day. I will also be attending the first day of the regular conference before I head back to Starkville for classes on Wednesday! Looking forward to getting to watch Twisters while I am at the conference.

Regarding weather, I think this event coming up on Sunday is looking more like a straight-line wind severe event versus tornadoes unlike on the 28th. Lapse rates don't look too crazy and neither does surface-based CAPE or relative helicity values. Hopefully we steer clear of anymore EF-3 tornadoes like in Chambers/Jefferson County.

[orangeblood]

On another note, ensembles really dont show much warmth even going into the long range , in fact they are in very impressive agreement on a new - EPO alaskan ridge forming mid- late month, trough starts retrograding back to the west, dont think we are down with winter yet

No doubt, outside a brief 1-2 day warm up, really remarkable ensemble consensus of a really cold 2-3 week period coming up

[txtwister78]

Hi everyone! Happy New Year! It has been a while and I officially have one semester left before I earn my bachelor's in professional meteorology! I am really excited to almost be finished. Last semester, I was selected for a research internship in tropical meteorology with one of my professors at Mississippi State and I will be presenting my findings at the AMS student conference next weekend in New Orleans! Hopefully, things will not be too crazy given the horrible tragedy that happened on New Year's Day. I will also be attending the first day of the regular conference before I head back to Starkville for classes on Wednesday! Looking forward to getting to watch Twisters while I am at the conference.

Regarding weather, I think this event coming up on Sunday is looking more like a straight-line wind severe event versus tornadoes unlike on the 28th. Lapse rates don't look too crazy and neither does surface-based CAPE or relative helicity values. Hopefully we steer clear of anymore EF-3 tornadoes like in Chambers/Jefferson County.

Congrats and Happy New Year!

[JDawg512]

Snow is childsplay.... It gets real when its 38 degrees and a heavy downpour.. Just have to dress in the right attire. Trust me it's so much fun. Way better than ice and sleet. I'd rather take snow than that stuff.

[DallasAg]

Crews are out pre-treating bridges on Dallas North Tollway and Sam Rayburn Tollway this afternoon. Jumping the gun a bit?

[WacoWx]

Pre

[Wthrfan]

Crews are out pre-treating bridges on Dallas North Tollway and Sam Rayburn Tollway this afternoon. Jumping the gun a bit?

Just a bit!