Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

18z i digging a bit more.

GFS/Ukmet vs Euro/CMC for a 4 day forecast. Though I'm not sure about the surface of the UK free data is extremely limited just going off 5H. 18z slows it down a little bit and even attempts negative tilt. That's good for throwing back moisture.

Folks in the Northeast are watching it too. If it is a significant system here then odds are it will likely become a nor'easter. And everyone in between in the mid south from Birmingham to Atlanta.

And if it is of little significance like the Euro then it slips off Miami to be forgotten

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, on this date back in 1985. Oh, if only Champ the Charger had been around 31 years ago! Can you imagine the fun that Portastorm would have had during that historic Central Texas snowstorm!!

Even Heat Miser would have had fun in this rare San Antonio snow event.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/30-years-ago-San-Antonio-covered-in-snow-5983684.php

I was in San Antonio. My best childhood memory!!

[gpsnowman]

https://youtu.be/1ytCEuuW2_A
The winter so far. We still have a ways to go!!!

[gpsnowman]

Meanwhile, on this date back in 1985. Oh, if only Champ the Charger had been around 31 years ago! Can you imagine the fun that Portastorm would have had during that historic Central Texas snowstorm!!

Even Heat Miser would have had fun in this rare San Antonio snow event.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/30-years-ago-San-Antonio-covered-in-snow-5983684.php

I was in San Antonio. My best childhood memory!!

Darn you weatherdude, I missed that storm by six months. I remember watching the weather as a ten year old in Dallas raging with jealousy. The winter of 85 was pretty decent for DFW though. We moved from San Antonio to Dallas in August of 1984.

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, on this date back in 1985. Oh, if only Champ the Charger had been around 31 years ago! Can you imagine the fun that Portastorm would have had during that historic Central Texas snowstorm!!

Even Heat Miser would have had fun in this rare San Antonio snow event.

http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/30-years-ago-San-Antonio-covered-in-snow-5983684.php

I was in San Antonio. My best childhood memory!!

Darn you weatherdude, I missed that storm by six months. I remember watching the weather as a ten year old in Dallas raging with jealousy. The winter of 85 was pretty decent for DFW though. We moved from San Antonio to Dallas in August of 1984.

Oh man! Sorry about that timing. That was definitely one for the record books. Great time to be a kid! You should have stayed in SA a little longer.

Watch "KENS-TV 5 San Antonio - January 1985 Snow - Weather "Special Report"" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/Bnt_vHLtKx8

 Watch "San Antonio's 13.5 inch Record Snowfall in 1985" on YouTube
https://youtu.be/bbM-dr_WfNg

[Brent]

GFS and the CMC keep the snow in Oklahoma on Saturday

Euro has some light snow but it stays NW of the metroplex

[SouthernMet]

[Ralph's Weather]

Amazingly SHV is mentioning snow mixing in along I-20 while FWD keeps the snow further north. Not that means anthying as SHV keeps temps in the 40s during the event this far south.
Main thing is the idea of snow is still on the table with a strong shortwave and cold temps throughout the column. Any accumulations will be in areas that can drop to near freezing unless snowfall rates are much higher than expected.

[srainhoutx]

Another temperature bust way too warm in SE Texas this morning. Yet another frost on the roof tops in NW Harris County this morning.

[Portastorm]

I think thIs pretty much captures the mood here this morning:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuWH0dYago

[Ralph's Weather]

Another temperature bust way too warm in SE Texas this morning. Yet another frost on the roof tops in NW Harris County this morning.

Another freeze here for the fourth straight morning.

[dhweather]

The 00Z GFS has no freezes through 7 days for Mesquite and 0.30" of precip. It does have some lows just below freezing in about two weeks with an additional 0.03" of precip in the 8-14 day period.

The 00Z Euro does not appear to have any freezes during the same period, and total precip in the 0.25" range.

Maybe February will bring better chances for wintry weather.

[gboudx]

I think thIs pretty much captures the mood here this morning:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1fuWH0dYago

LOL! Even though I do enjoy reading the posts here, I never ever, ever, ever get my hopes up until I see it falling from the sky. Like Ntxw has said before, it's about threading the needle. I guess that term has replaced Lucy?

[Snowman67]

Another temperature bust way too warm in SE Texas this morning. Yet another frost on the roof tops in NW Harris County this morning.

Yup. Got down to 36F here in Tomball.

[Ralph's Weather]

LOL! Even though I do enjoy reading the posts here, I never ever, ever, ever get my hopes up until I see it falling from the sky. Like Ntxw has said before, it's about threading the needle. I guess that term has replaced Lucy?

Yep, threading the needle will be the theme of this winter. The -AO overall will keep a good amount of cold air aloft around and the STJ will provide good amounts of PW. We just need those to meet up for a big event. For the Saturday event we just need for this shortwave to find a way to tap into the STJ moisture to go from the likely scattered rain/snow showers to a few sloppy inches of snow. That appears unlikely as of this point though.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

39F here at TPB weather center. Not sure what we were expecting as far as possibly being a bust.

[vbhoutex]

The 00Z GFS has no freezes through 7 days for Mesquite and 0.30" of precip. It does have some lows just below freezing in about two weeks with an additional 0.03" of precip in the 8-14 day period.

The 00Z Euro does not appear to have any freezes during the same period, and total precip in the 0.25" range.

Maybe February will bring better chances for wintry weather.

February is usually the month we get snow in SE TX if we are going to get snow. Winter 1973 was 1 event in Jan. and 2 in February. I believe that is one of our analog Winters for this one isn't it? I can always hope!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah, '73 was one of the analogs. I looked over the re-an analysis. If only we can replicate the second half of that winter!

[Ntxw]

12z GFS is not backing off. It has low/mid 30s for DFW and snow. Its either going to bust inside 5 days or score a coup

In a sense it has already beaten the Euro which was dry but has a milder rain showers forecast

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS trends in the right direction with a stronger, colder and more moist system on Saturday. Sunday morning is also much colder with a freeze for most north of I-10 and even pockets of teens.