Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[northjaxpro]

Thanks Ivanhater for posting the latest Euro and global ensembles. I appreciate the fact that you post these on the forum and saves me time digging for them.

Yeah, this upcoming Christmas weekend looks very very interesting for many areas potentially not only in the Deep South but the Eastern Seaboard. The models are locking onto the potential to deepen this potential winter storm. It will be intriguing throughout this week to see if the models will trend to this system "bombing" going into Christmas weekend.

The Omega Block over Greenland continues to hold firm, as it has since the end of November. It appears like we will be seeing these arctic air intrusions to continue over the Eastern CONUS right on up to at least the start of January 2011.

So, get ready again for the next round of the deep freeze across the Deep South and Florida peninsula as it looks now. Definitely will be monitoring this situation as the week progresses.

[Ivanhater]

12z euro...surface low over mobile and Pensacola!

[wxman57]

12z euro...surface low over mobile and Pensacola!
http://i.imgur.com/qCafL.gif

Could indicate good rain potential, but the same 12Z Euro has the 850mb 0C isotherm up in Tennessee at that time. Unfortunately, the Euro isn't indicating snow across the Gulf Coast states. It does indicate quite an East Coast snow storm on the 26th-27th.

[Ivanhater]

Most of the Mets I'm hearing from are saying the euro and Canadian are showing a good snowstorm for northern Mississippi Alabama and Georgia. Also the models shifted south big time today now having the surface low skirting the gulf coast ...nice trend for the south east

[Agua]

Most of the Mets I'm hearing from are saying the euro and Canadian are showing a good snowstorm for northern Mississippi [snip]

Great duck hunting weather!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

No love for Houston? I hope not because im leaving for Ft Lauderdale on Thursday

[Ivanhater]

JMA model is nice



Another look at the Euro..look at that low in the Gulf ..just yesterday models were showing the low in Kentucky. If the models trend even further south, well....I don't want to speak too soon.

[One Eye]

Good research Ivanhater!! Defitely looks like some more cold weather for the deep south. Most of winter precip looks to be on the back side of the low. If the trends continue , might be a road trip.

[Ivanhater]

Another look at the Canadian

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone notice the GFS 12z and 18z runs for the 1st week of Jan???

Cold and Snow all the way to the Gulf and across north Florida!!

[Ivanhater]

Lol...a blizzard for the Florida panhandle...a beautiful site. With the stunning white sand beaches of NW Florida, could anyone tell it snowed?

[Dean4Storms]

It'll at least be interesting to see if the trend toward this trough deepening continues. To be honest with the way this season has unfolded thus far it would not surprise me to see some snow down here this year! Sooner or later with the trough digging to the Gulf just begs for a system to come around it and Kaboom!

[SunnyThoughts]

I am NOT going to get my hopes up for snow this year...I just can't take the heartbreak again lol Everybody stay warm and dry...and Merry Christmas everybody!

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro is a winter wonderland across Dixie for Christmas day!

Much of Northern Mississippi, Alabama, much of Georgia and the Carolinas get buried.

[Ivanhater]

Wow..UKMET is even further south with the surface low over the Gulf going into Tampa

[Dean4Storms]

And the GFS continues much further north with a much weaker storm. I don't know which solution to trust right now Michael. I got a feeling they will meet in the middle somewhere.

[Ivanhater]

The GFS is an outlier right now. In this case, I think the GFS will switch with the others.

[Ivanhater]

Canadian snowfall accum

[Brent]

Nashville:

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IN
...17 YEARS...

Huntsville:

DESPITE LOWER POPS...MORE
COLD AIR ARRIVES BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES SUFFICIENTLY...WE COULD
EXPERIENCE A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IF THE ECMWF TREND COMES TO
PAST.

Birmingham:

EURO IS HINTING AT A DEEPENING LOW AS IT PULLS AWAY. THIS
COULD CAUSE THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER IN QUICKER THAN EXPECTED THUS
RESULTING IN A CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AT LEAST
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. FOR NOW NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
THROW SNOW INTO THE FORECAST ON CHRISTMAS BUT IT WILL BE INTERESTING
OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE THE TRENDS AND POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS.

Atlanta:

HOWEVER...THICKNESSES COOL ENOUGH THAT WE COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT IN WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE.

I'm thinking as of now it will be confined to the higher elevations of AL/GA, but it has been trending better.

[northjaxpro]

So far this early winter season, the Euro has performed the best of all the reliable models. I would hedge that the other models, particularly the GFS will eventually fall in line with the Euro's solution as the week progresses.

It is trending more and more with the models that our big winter storm may take a much more southerly path and it may be a white Christmas day potentially for many areas across the Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic.

Also, the potential for this storm to "bomb" once it reaches the coast of the DELMARVA and Northeast U.S. looks very probable as well. The dynamics are coming together nicely glancing at the Euro runs for a rather potent Christmas weekend storm!