Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Will be interesting how negative the EPO and WPO gets. WPO is forecasted -4 standard while -5 to -6 for EPO. Mid December blast was from -2 to -3 EPO then the warmth +2 to +3. The last truly deep, long -EPO was late Feb to early March of 2015 (DFW snow events) and the last real tank was Jan 2014 -3.5 sigma. While I don't think a -6SD will happen a -3 or -4 is reasonable

[Ntxw]

Also of interest is the domino effect in the Pacific. Usually with a severe -EPO episode you can bet you'll find bombogenesis occur somewhere in the NPO to kickstart. The area to watch the next 2 days is Kamchatka. Sub 950mb low over that way on the Euro while GFS is sub 940mb. Right now it's the 980s mb low that brought heavy snow over Japan the past few days pumping the EPO high ridge ahead of it. You can see the arrow pointing east northeast on the high which will strengthen as it moves.

[Snowman67]

FWD AFD:

Regardless of Sunday`s rain potential, all eyes will be watching
another arctic airmass organizing across western Canada and the
northern U.S. by Monday. There is actually very good model
agreement in the upper level pattern for the early and middle part
of next week, so confidence is high that this cold air is going to
pool across the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Unlike
the last arctic intrusion into Texas, which was propelled rapidly
southward by a strong and dynamic upper level trough, this arctic
airmass will be more bottled up as a positive tilt upper level
trough sits over the northern and northwestern U.S. This means
a west to east zonal jet stream will set up across the central
part of the country and fight the arctic airmass`s ability to
move southward. Even still, arctic air is very dense, and it`s
likely that a shallow layer of this air will make steady progress
southward into the region by Tuesday. The shallow nature of this
arctic intrusion will promote cloudy skies and possibly some light
post-frontal precipitation. Snow may be a hard sell since it is
likely to remain above freezing between 700 and 850 mb, but
there`s at least some low potential for icing or sleet by the
middle of next week. It`s too early to get any more specific than
to say a low wintry potential exists at this point. Either way
temperatures will be colder with lows in the 20s and 30s and
highs likely only in the 30s from mid to late next week.

In terms of accuracy, are these models any more or less accurate in predicting the flow aloft than they are temperatures a week out? I guess what I'm asking is - Is there a decent probability that the upper air flow will be more amplified and less zonal than what the current thinking is?

[wxman57]

GFS has 1-2 inches of snow in DFW next Wednesday

No snow in the parallel run.

[Brent]

GFS a little faster with the arctic front crossing DFW Tuesday evening

Now to see if there's any frozen precip. None through Wednesday night

Just cold and dry this run...a near 1040 mb high moves across South Central Texas

[ronyan]

This GFS run would be quite cold, high diving straight into TX.

[Brent]

Euro much warmer next Wednesday and slower with the front

Looks like Wednesday Night for DFW.

Edit: Big winter storm next Thursday at DFW... almost a half inch of QPF with temps near/below freezing. Looks icy from the thicknesses if I'm reading right, Further NE in Arkansas even more frozen precip fallsI(lots of snow towards Little Rock and Memphis)

Euro "snow" map has around an inch around DFW with 2-4" in Oklahoma and a stripe of 6 inches in Central Arkansas

Near 20 degrees next Friday morning behind it

[Cpv17]

Euro much warmer next Wednesday and slower with the front

Looks like Wednesday Night for DFW.

Edit: Big winter storm next Thursday at DFW... almost a half inch of QPF with temps near/below freezing. Looks icy from the thicknesses if I'm reading right. Further NE in Arkansas even more frozen precip falls

Euro "snow" map has around an inch around DFW with 2-4" in Oklahoma and a stripe of 6 inches in Central Arkansas

Near 20 degrees next Friday morning behind it

Today was a pretty good day of model watching in all honesty. Hopefully tomorrow will yield us the same

[Brent]

240 hour Euro

[Brent]

BTW the HRRR has mid 80s in Fort Worth today and DFW's record high of 81 in danger while we talk about fantasy snow next week...

[TheProfessor]

Euro much warmer next Wednesday and slower with the front

Looks like Wednesday Night for DFW.

Edit: Big winter storm next Thursday at DFW... almost a half inch of QPF with temps near/below freezing. Looks icy from the thicknesses if I'm reading right, Further NE in Arkansas even more frozen precip fallsI(lots of snow towards Little Rock and Memphis)

Euro "snow" map has around an inch around DFW with 2-4" in Oklahoma and a stripe of 6 inches in Central Arkansas

Near 20 degrees next Friday morning behind it

Looking at the skew-t for hour 210 definitely looks icy, warm nose might be big enough for freezing rain, since the surface would be at or below freezing longer than the upper levels on this run it probably wouldn't take long to accumulate. .23 inch of freezing rain would not be fun and is on the verge of a winter storm/ ice storm warning for this area. Will be interesting to see if this begins to trend.

[Ntxw]

Euro Ensembles is taking the pattern to the more potent side. Pretty impressive for an ensemble cluster, the US would be just a tad cold...might see a polar bear or two

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Euro Ensembles is taking the pattern to the more potent side. Pretty impressive for an ensemble cluster, the US would be just a tad cold...might see a polar bear or two

That's so gorgeous!

[srainhoutx]

Excellent agreement with all the Global Ensemble schemes that Arctic Air will entrench virtually all of North America with below normal temperatures from Coast to Coast.

[South Texas Storms]

Yep, confidence continues to increase that very cold air will impact Texas and much of the country next week. Hopefully we can get some precip to go along with the cold air. Cold air without precip is useless in my opinion.

[Ntxw]

GEFS (GFS Ens) offers much of the same. Quite the pattern reversal from what it is now. North America will take the brunt of the cold in the Northern Hemisphere.



Big drop in the EPO and WPO

[Ntxw]

Of course we can't post maps without showing some analogs from the CPC! 1983-1984 is still in there, January 1962 is popping up a few times. I'm sure Houston remembers that one.

[Portastorm]

Yep, confidence continues to increase that very cold air will impact Texas and much of the country next week. Hopefully we can get some precip to go along with the cold air. Cold air without precip is useless in my opinion.

It would appear that all signs are GO for another Arctic airmass into Texas by the middle of next week. But I totally agree on the useless cold comment. We need some precip this time around. Otherwise I would prefer 50 and rain.

[srainhoutx]

Wednesday morning briefing from Jeff:

Will be going for several records today…the biggest is that today is the 5th straight day of 80 plus degree high temperatures…this has never happened before in December in the City of Houston. All-time December record high of 85 (hottest it has ever been in December) may also be within reach today and the daily record of 80 will likely fall.

Mini heat wave which has brought several records including record highs at all 3 primary climate sites (GLS, HOU, IAH) yesterday will continue one more day. Even with the thick sea fog Galveston was able to break its old record of 74 by 4 degrees yesterday. Surface winds will turn SSW to SW today ahead of an approaching old front that will cross the region tonight. These SW winds along with breaks in the overcast and sea fog will allow afternoon temperatures to surge into the low to mid 80’s. Dewpoints continue to run in the lower 70’s across lower 60 degree water temperatures resulting in coastal sea fog. Galveston has been bouncing various visibilities since the 25th in sea fog and looks like very slow if any improvement today. Cold front tonight will end the sea fog threat for may be a day or so.

Front tonight will usher in a Canadian air mass which will knock temperatures back toward normal for this time of year with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s. Will likely see a period of gusty winds Thursday morning behind this front out of the NNE as high pressure builds into TX. Cold air will be brief as the surface highs begins to move eastward late Friday and southerly winds begin to return.

Warm front will organize over the Gulf waters early Saturday and push across the area Saturday with temperatures warming back into the 70’s by afternoon. A storm system off the S CA coast currently will begin to eject ENE across TX this weekend and will interact with the increasing moisture to produce waves of rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Models are showing fairly high rain chances for Saturday into Saturday night…running 60-80% so a wet NYE looks likely. Another cold front looks to move across the region at some point on Sunday, but broad troughing will likely keep clouds and rain lingering into Monday.

Long Range:
Confidence is increasing that a surge of very cold arctic air will be ushered into the US the first few days of 2017. Upper air pattern being shown on nearly all of the major global models supports the building of a large scale ridge into Alaska and a large downstream trough over much of the US by mid to late next week. While it is currently not very cold in the source regions of NW Canada and Alaska, cold air will be flooding these regions from northern Siberia over the next few days. Upper air pattern going into late next week shows a deep trough over the NW US with a broad zonal flow across much of the US. This type of pattern can keep arctic air bottled up near the US/Canada border, but the more likely outcome is that a shallow and very cold air mass slides southward under its own density down the plains. Global models tend to struggle greatly with such air masses due to their shallow nature and usually do not show enough cooling behind such fronts. Unlike the previous arctic front a few weeks ago which was much sharper and deeper in nature, the shallow nature of this front along with the broad trough to our WNW and flow over top of this air mass may bring a winter storm to TX toward the end of next week. The GFS has been hinting at this potential and the ECMWF shows stronger support. Temperature profiles both at the surface and aloft will determine what if any P-type considerations would be possible over portions of TX. For now something to keep an eye on.

[Tireman4]

George S.Irving, the voice of the Heat Miser in the,Year Without a Santa Claus died. ..


http://www.syracuse.com/celebrity-news/ ... miser.html