Texas Winter 2019-2020

[stormlover2013]

Models will struggle with this, they always do

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing that concerns me is that the nam has been slowly inching up the temps with each run today, and the 18z has about half the metro just above freezing. Is there something in the 500mb causing this, or is it just the model having a tough time?

[starsfan65]

One thing that concerns me is that the nam has been slowly inching up the temps with each run today, and the 18z has about half the metro just above freezing. Is there something in the 500mb causing this, or is it just the model having a tough time?

The storm is being sampled by the Upper Air Network soon.

[gboudx]

One thing that concerns me is that the nam has been slowly inching up the temps with each run today, and the 18z has about half the metro just above freezing. Is there something in the 500mb causing this, or is it just the model having a tough time?

The storm is being sampled by the Upper Air Network soon.

When will it get within the Upper Air Network?

[starsfan65]

One thing that concerns me is that the nam has been slowly inching up the temps with each run today, and the 18z has about half the metro just above freezing. Is there something in the 500mb causing this, or is it just the model having a tough time?

The storm is being sampled by the Upper Air Network soon.

When will it get within the Upper Air Network?

The storm is about to be inland.

[Cerlin]

[Ntxw]

One thing that concerns me is that the nam has been slowly inching up the temps with each run today, and the 18z has about half the metro just above freezing. Is there something in the 500mb causing this, or is it just the model having a tough time?

There are two forces (perhaps even three!) at play here. The storm is quite strong and as models slow it down, ahead of it the guidance naturally will want to advect warm air (SW flow aloft). This is the ingredient for strong moisture. Secondly at the same time cold air is surging southward, both at the surface, and at PV streamer coming down from the North. It's a battle between the two tugging back and forth between guidance and runs. If cold wins too much, you go positive tilt and cold/dry. If warmth wins too much, a cold rain. Somewhere in-between there is a sweet spot where the major winter storm is.

[starsfan65]

:lol:

What is so funny?

[Brent]

:lol:

Pretty much my thoughts too honestly when you think about it

[bubba hotep]

Decent SE shift on the 18z Euro and EPS. The op run is a crush job for the area from about Aspermont up towards Vernon. Also, another tick cooler at the surface across DFW.

[bubba hotep]

The map



Also, plenty of QPF across portions of N. Texas, if we could just get temps colder!

[EnnisTx]

:lol:

Pretty much my thoughts too honestly when you think about it

Sadly this is more entertaining than the Super Bowl or the commercials.....

[Jarodm12]

Im waiting for the 00z guidance, with any luck it will come in colder at the surface and upper levels, but even still going with the warmest guidance here in Durant and even much of north Texas it's hard to believe that this will be a cold rain bust with dewpoints below freezing and for some of us in the 20s throughout the entire event! That process alone will drop us below freezing at the surface.

Also note: NWS made mention of the brisk north cold air advection forecast during the entire event and that process too will aid in surface temperatures being colder, I'm simply not convinced at all that a cold rain will ensue but I do understand the skepticism

[Cerlin]

:lol:

What is so funny?

Just watching the models do some flipping and flopping and seeing the reactions people have to them.

[cheezyWXguy]

:lol:

What is so funny?

Just watching the models do some flipping and flopping and seeing the reactions people have to them.

Doesn’t really add a lot to the discussion. Most of us either have vested interest in outcome we’d like to see, or are trying to learn something, or both.

[Cerlin]

What is so funny?

Just watching the models do some flipping and flopping and seeing the reactions people have to them.

Doesn’t really add a lot to the discussion. Most of us either have vested interest in outcome we’d like to see, or are trying to learn something, or both.

Completely fair point, definitely didn’t mean to offend anyone at all, especially because I am trying to learn a lot too and I definitely don’t want to inhibit the ability to learn for anyone. My apologies. Just trying to keep it lighthearted.

[EnnisTx]

Just watching the models do some flipping and flopping and seeing the reactions people have to them.

Doesn’t really add a lot to the discussion. Most of us either have vested interest in outcome we’d like to see, or are trying to learn something, or both.

Completely fair point, definitely didn’t mean to offend anyone at all, especially because I am trying to learn a lot too and I definitely don’t want to inhibit the ability to learn for anyone. My apologies. Just trying to keep it lighthearted.

You don't owe anyone an apology. I've seen the same thing on this site for years, people have fun and learn. There's absolutely no reason for people to be uptight on here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Just watching the models do some flipping and flopping and seeing the reactions people have to them.

Doesn’t really add a lot to the discussion. Most of us either have vested interest in outcome we’d like to see, or are trying to learn something, or both.

Completely fair point, definitely didn’t mean to offend anyone at all, especially because I am trying to learn a lot too and I definitely don’t want to inhibit the ability to learn for anyone. My apologies. Just trying to keep it lighthearted.

No worries, it is pretty easy to enveloped in scrutinizing these model runs, so I can see why it would be funny. It’s just been sooo long since the last time something interesting happened around here, winter-weather wise. I haven’t seen snow on the ground since 2011!

[cheezyWXguy]

0z nam, at least through hour 57, definitely seems like a step in the right direction. The trough is being held further back to the saw, digging deeper, and is less elongated. Temps are slightly cooler too.

[Jarodm12]

0z nam, at least through hour 57, definitely seems like a step in the right direction. The trough is being held further back to the saw, digging deeper, and is less elongated. Temps are slightly cooler too.

Yes i was just about to post that, temps are headed in the right direction and storm motion