Texas Winter 2023-2024

[Stratton23]

whatever falls is not going to melt, could have some icing problems in a good chunk of texas

[Portastorm]

I think the majority of the Austin area has PTSD after the Winter Apocalypse of 2021 and the ice storm in early 2023. If today's 12z Euro trends start getting legs in the other modeling ... and the local TV mets pick up on it ... oh lord, will there be panic here.

[iorange55]

What a great time to move back to Austin! Just got here a week ago, lol.

[Portastorm]

What a great time to move back to Austin! Just got here a week ago, lol.

My condolences.

[weatherdude1108]

I think the majority of the Austin area has PTSD after the Winter Apocalypse of 2021 and the ice storm in early 2023. If today's 12z Euro trends start getting legs in the other modeling ... and the local TV mets pick up on it ... oh lord, will there be panic here.

I'm internally panicking right now. We may have to cancel our Kalahari visit at this rate.

What a s---ty few years this has been around here weather-wise with the Icepocalypses and 105s-110s this past Summer. I'll take the boring, average weather we had back in December in a heartbeat!lol Ugh.

[Cpv17]

Kinda thinking we could have bigger chances for a winter storm towards late next week or into the following week.

[Stratton23]

Possibly, I suspect this potential icing event may be the first in a couple of chances for some wintry mischief during this extended cold spell

[Portastorm]

I think the majority of the Austin area has PTSD after the Winter Apocalypse of 2021 and the ice storm in early 2023. If today's 12z Euro trends start getting legs in the other modeling ... and the local TV mets pick up on it ... oh lord, will there be panic here.

I'm internally panicking right now. We may have to cancel our Kalahari visit at this rate.

What a s---ty few years this has been around here weather-wise with the Icepocalypses and 105s-110s this past Summer. I'll take the boring, average weather we had back in December in a heartbeat!lol Ugh.

Avery Tomasco, a very good local TV met, already is on top of this. He's been tweeting about it this afternoon. I'll personally feel more concerned if tonight's 0z trends show more digging of that system and greater lift over us Sunday night-Monday. The 12z Euro trends definitely raise an eyebrow or two but I'm not on board yet with us seeing any frozen precip.

I'm sorry for y'all. You have a tough decision to make. Hopefully the resort will let you cancel closer to the reservation if you need to cancel.

[kirium]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR12ZJan10.JPG

Finally, ensembles snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

[Cpv17]

Possibly, I suspect this potential icing event may be the first in a couple of chances for some wintry mischief during this extended cold spell

Check out the 8-14 day CPC forecast that just got released. Looks very interesting.

[Portastorm]

Snippet from the afternoon forecast discussion out of EWX:

As far as wintry precipitation goes, chances continue to look
low for any precipitation at all with this front for our area.
However, there are a handful of ensemble members that do hint at
some very light (trace) FZRA across far northeastern portions of our
CWA during the early morning hours on Monday. We decided in
collaboration with neighboring offices that this potential is enough
to justify a small area of a 15% mention for this time period. This
is still a low confidence forecast though, and some bouncing around
of a FZRA mention or not in subsequent forecast packages is possible
depending on the trends.

&&

[gpsnowman]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR12ZJan10.JPG

Finally, ensembles snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

Same with me. Not sure what the issue is but I haven't seen an embedded image from 57 in probably 3 years. It's probably my ancient phone and computer. Can't even see his avatar.

[Texas Snow]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR12ZJan10.JPG

Finally, ensembles snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

They are displaying fine. Are you looking at this through a work computer? I cannot see whatever iceresistance posts because of my company’s firewall and who he is using as his image host. I can see everyone else’s however. If I want to see something he posts, I just pull out my iPad, which doesn’t block.

[weatherdude1108]

I think the majority of the Austin area has PTSD after the Winter Apocalypse of 2021 and the ice storm in early 2023. If today's 12z Euro trends start getting legs in the other modeling ... and the local TV mets pick up on it ... oh lord, will there be panic here.

I'm internally panicking right now. We may have to cancel our Kalahari visit at this rate.

What a s---ty few years this has been around here weather-wise with the Icepocalypses and 105s-110s this past Summer. I'll take the boring, average weather we had back in December in a heartbeat!lol Ugh.

Avery Tomasco, a very good local TV met, already is on top of this. He's been tweeting about it this afternoon. I'll personally feel more concerned if tonight's 0z trends show more digging of that system and greater lift over us Sunday night-Monday. The 12z Euro trends definitely raise an eyebrow or two but I'm not on board yet with us seeing any frozen precip.

I'm sorry for y'all. You have a tough decision to make. Hopefully the resort will let you cancel closer to the reservation if you need to cancel.

I like Avery! He's a good one. I try to watch him on his weathercast every day. Yeah, we'll see what happens with the resort. Won't want to drive anywhere, and hesitate to leave my house alone, even though I'm taking precautions with covering stuff and dripping. Made it through 2021 without incident, aside from a few leaky sink valves, which may have already been there prior to the freeze.lol

[kirium]

I'm in Oklahoma City so it looks like there will be some precipitation with this. I guess we'll see as it gets closer.

[wxman57]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR12ZJan10.JPG

Finally, ensembles snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

Reposting won't do any good. You'll just have to click the links. What device are you using to view S2K? PC? Phone?

[hurricane2025]

Models struggle with this shallow air mass if euro is onto something then game on

[kirium]

Here are some assorted ECMWF precip forecasts.

First is snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Next is freezing rain (which includes sleet). Chance of a few sleet pellets across SE Texas, but surface temps Monday morning will be well above freezing.
http://wxman57.com/images/ECZR12ZJan10.JPG

Finally, ensembles snowfall:
http://wxman57.com/images/ECEnsSnow12ZJan10.JPG

Can you repost?

None of your images are showing up

they show up if I click the link but not embedded in the post.

Reposting won't do any good. You'll just have to click the links. What device are you using to view S2K? PC? Phone?

I'm on a home PC, no worries, I just click on your links

I guess I'm one of the odd ones, if it's going to be cold, give me 6"+ of snow here in Okc. LOL

[Brent]

Tomorrow night goes from 60 to 20 here and that's just the inital front

[kirium]

Tomorrow night goes from 60 to 20 here and that's just the inital front

What part of Tulsa?

I'm in Edmond and I think we go from 57 high tomorrow to 20 LOL