Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Texas Snow]

Sadly this is more entertaining than the Super Bowl or the commercials.....

Bill Murray just won the Superbowl

[Brent]

Is that a dry slot over Dallas on the NAM

Also looks more icy than anything

[Ntxw]

What's becoming apparent, at least from the NAM, is that is trending colder. Also the parent ULL isn't even out yet with waves of disturbances. Could we be looking at something that is a long duration event? I can definitely see this scenario playing out. This is the strongest spinning SW low we have seen in a long time tracking in such a motion that it is.

Remember 2010? Wave after wave until the grand finale.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is that a dry slot over Dallas on the NAM

Also looks more icy than anything

Ha, it does seem a bit light on the qpf, doesn’t it. Seems like you’d see more with a stronger system digging further south

[Jarodm12]

Is that a dry slot over Dallas on the NAM

Also looks more icy than anything

Welp came in colder, now the majority of the precip is gone lol

[EnnisTx]

Sadly this is more entertaining than the Super Bowl or the commercials.....

Bill Murray just won the Superbowl

Yep... Finally a decent commercial.

[Jarodm12]

Look at those dew points holy cow, mid 20s maybe thats apart of it, I'm not sure but atleast now it doesnt appear that cold air will not be our problem lol

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at those dew points holy cow, mid 20s maybe thats apart of it, I'm not sure but atleast now it doesnt appear that cold air will be our problem lol

It’s crazy how much different the evolution of this system is, vs the 18z. Totals out west aren’t as extreme, but there is a broad brushing of 1-3” across much more of the area.

[Ntxw]

Look at those dew points holy cow, mid 20s maybe thats apart of it, I'm not sure but atleast now it doesnt appear that cold air will be our problem lol

It’s crazy how much different the evolution of this system is, vs the 18z. Totals out west aren’t as extreme, but there is a broad brushing of 1-3” across much more of the area.

What I am taking from all of it is, we have transitioned into a long overrunning event. It's not so much that the shifts are drastic, the models are seeing qpf with each passing disturbance ahead of the wave. Initially it will be colder to the west/north west. Cold air continues to filter in as more disturbances kicks out before the parent vorticity max is even in the state. What was a Tuesday night/Weds morning event is now being stretched out through Thursday.

We keep arguing Euro vs GFS...well perhaps both may even end up being right!

Edit: To make matters worse, the base of the trough is digging way into the blind spot out of Mexico as it taps into the STJ.

[orangeblood]

What's becoming apparent, at least from the NAM, is that is trending colder. Also the parent ULL isn't even out yet with waves of disturbances. Could we be looking at something that is a long duration event? I can definitely see this scenario playing out. This is the strongest spinning SW low we have seen in a long time tracking in such a motion that it is.

Remember 2010? Wave after wave until the grand finale.

Yep, focus on temps first and foremost...with an ULL tracking in that slot, the moisture will be there and is typically way underdone by models

[bubba hotep]

3k NAM has the surface dropping below freezing in DFW as a strong impulse starts to lift out, could we possibly go straight to frozen precip? (ETA: correction - This looks like the 2nd impulse)

[Texas Snow]

Yep I’ve been more concerned about temps more than precip all along. That’s usually the case here in North Texas with the exception of extreme cold events, which the system was never supposed to be anyway.

[Jarodm12]

I think we actually have something to be seriously excited about, the cold air is there with low dew points and strong cold air advection, and several impulses spreading north eastward, that would be cool if we are talking about over 24 hours of winter precipitation, it will be interesting to see the 6z nam we will be under the gun within the 60 hour range, i think the trend is exciting and actually what we wanted

[Haris]

I am so excited even though I am no where near the bulls eye. I just want a half inch. Please lord.

[EnnisTx]

Look at those dew points holy cow, mid 20s maybe thats apart of it, I'm not sure but atleast now it doesnt appear that cold air will be our problem lol

It’s crazy how much different the evolution of this system is, vs the 18z. Totals out west aren’t as extreme, but there is a broad brushing of 1-3” across much more of the area.

What I am taking from all of it is, we have transitioned into a long overrunning event. It's not so much that the shifts are drastic, the models are seeing qpf with each passing disturbance ahead of the wave. Initially it will be colder to the west/north west. Cold air continues to filter in as more disturbances kicks out before the parent vorticity max is even in the state. What was a Tuesday night/Weds morning event is now being stretched out through Thursday.

We keep arguing Euro vs GFS...well perhaps both may even end up being right!

Edit: To make matters worse, the base of the trough is digging way into the blind spot out of Mexico as it taps into the STJ.

I believe you're right on this. It may well be a prolonged event, but let's hope it's all snow and not ice as the temperature continues to trend colder.

[Ntxw]

Icon has strong convective snow/rain to the w/nw (this model doesn't show the mixing stuff in-between, at least not on tidbits) while DFW is at or close to freezing and raining hard. Transitions to snow on the backside as the upper trough crosses.

[orangeblood]

Icon has strong convective snow/rain to the w/nw (this model doesn't show the mixing stuff in-between, at least not on tidbits) while DFW is at or close to freezing and raining hard. Transitions to snow on the backside as the upper trough crosses.

This one is beginning to trend SE as well...good trends to start off the 0Z suites this evening, next up GFS!!!

[Cerlin]

Interesting to see if GFS shifts west like it has been the last couple runs or does a more SE shift like the rest of the models are hinting at. Also interesting to see if it will continue to show fantasy amounts of snow or tone it back.

[Ntxw]

Interesting to see if GFS shifts west like it has been the last couple runs or does a more SE shift like the rest of the models are hinting at. Also interesting to see if it will continue to show fantasy amounts of snow or tone it back.

I'm going to guess it will trend slightly colder and more qpf. Earlier in the week (before Thurs or Weds) this system was shown to come through with some specs of qpf, less than half an inch or 0.25" or fewer even. In the days since we have gone full fledged convective inch to multi inch liquid equivalent major storm. Think about that! A few nights ago the discussion was how the trough was coming through dry, despite looking so strong at 500mb...now look at it.

[Jarodm12]

Icon has strong convective snow/rain to the w/nw (this model doesn't show the mixing stuff in-between, at least not on tidbits) while DFW is at or close to freezing and raining hard. Transitions to snow on the backside as the upper trough crosses.

I think it's a great trend and I think that you're right that the precip will be there, we were worried about the cold air but with forecast dewpoints and a freezing line further southeast we may not get above freezing for over 24hours and if there's a lot of accumulations maybe longer, I'll tell you though the ICON is concerning for me, if it were to verify Durant would be encased in ice...