Texas Winter 2022-2023

[orangeblood]

Another thing to watch for with these Arctic Outbreaks…they tend to produce wintry precip on the front and back end of the outbreak - front as the initial UL trough moves thru and back as S/Ws sneak thru the West Coast ridge and come down the backside of a deep UL eastern US system. In this case Thursday and then Christmas Eve/ Christmas time frame.

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1604337703524474880?s=46&t=UPkkisjRbTQbM1x2TDXe-g

Temps were colder in 1989 with possibly less snow cover than right now and the HP the models are showing now will be stronger than the one from 1989. Something doesn’t add up to me. Seems like it would be quite a bit colder than what the models are currently indicating.

It adds up, to me. Think about it. What causes the pressure to be so high? Dense, cold air. This front appears to be more of a strong Canadian front than a true Arctic front. As such, it has a very deep layer of cold air. Arctic fronts often have the cold air only a few thousand feet thick. The air can be extremely cold, but it's not thick enough to have a very high pressure. A thicker layer of less cold air would yield a higher pressure.

Still no sign of 80F temps for next Fri-Mon. Perhaps all the models are wrong?

[Iceresistance]

I see a -47°F reading in the Yukon Territory, -13°F in the Dakotas.

[Ntxw]

Nam is even further west than GFS but it is long range NAM.

[harp]

Nam is even further west than GFS but it is long range NAM.

I didn’t know there was such a thing as a long range NAM.

[Iceresistance]

Nam is even further west than GFS but it is long range NAM.

I didn’t know there was such a thing as a long range NAM.

The NAM is considered "Long range" for a mesoscale model.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON is running!

Tomorrow, we can get a better look on this storm system with the Mesoscale models.

[wxman57]

I see a -47°F reading in the Yukon Territory, -13°F in the Dakotas.

That's the dew point temperature. It's been cold at that one spot for 2-3 days. -30s in northern Yukon and some -10 to -15F in the northern NW Territories. Still no front to identify.

By the way, which one of you has been messing with my wall?

[Iceresistance]

There were Winter Recon flights yesterday in the Pacific that used the dropsonde data to be plugged in the 12z runs.


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/Pacific-Winter-Recon.png

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON has a west shift, now it needs to go south for us to get more snow!

[Wntrwthrguy]

Does Austin area have any hope at all to see any snow? From what I’m hearing it’s only a north Texas possibility. Want to know if I should give up any last remaining hope.

[Dustybottums33]

How long do you guys think the cold is going to stick around the DFW area? Looking at NWS page, Christmas day is back up in the 40's for highs.

Arctic air is often underestimated, it could be 5-10 degrees colder than currently forecasted, for now a high of 41 on Christmas Day could possibly be 31 instead. With snow cover all the way down to Dallas by Friday morning, that would slow warming considerably. Way too early to determine at this time.

Thank you. I have been reading this board for years, so that is what I was thinking, but wanted to see what the feel was from the board.

[Portastorm]

Does Austin area have any hope at all to see any snow? From what I’m hearing it’s only a north Texas possibility. Want to know if I should give up any last remaining hope.

Highly unlikely.

[orangeblood]

Does Austin area have any hope at all to see any snow? From what I’m hearing it’s only a north Texas possibility. Want to know if I should give up any last remaining hope.

Highly unlikely.

Yeah, best chance would need to be with a backside S/W digging in further southwest Christmas time frame for central/south Texas

[opticsguy]

https://twitter.com/chase_benton1/status/1604330159859011584?s=46&t=lBuz3AlxfnwoQoHWcVlZfQ

Don't they have to shut the wind turbines down when it's that windy or the oil in the gears gets too cold?

[gpsnowman]

Ok GFS bring the snow!!

[Tireman4]

I see a -47°F reading in the Yukon Territory, -13°F in the Dakotas.

That's the dew point temperature. It's been cold at that one spot for 2-3 days. -30s in northern Yukon and some -10 to -15F in the northern NW Territories. Still no front to identify.

By the way, which one of you has been messing with my wall?

The Bricklayers Of America!

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

[Brent]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

GFS still has nearly a foot here

[Iceresistance]

I've noticed that the GFS has been slowing this down little by little, now it's going to be here by Noon Thursday!

GFS still has nearly a foot here

Over a foot in Springfield, MO and Joplin, MO!