Texas Winter 2024-2025

[starsfan65]

Bottom line is there is simply not enough cold air anymore. It seemed that the cold was a certainty and precip was a question. Now, it’s just the opposite. Sheesh!!!

The cold air didn’t change, the timing did. When the models were blowing up huge totals in various parts of the state, the timing was Wednesday into Thursday - now it’s Friday. This results in warmer air for us because the system cuts off from the main trough that is effectively supplying it with cold air. If the timing speeds up, the system and the trough come back into sync and winter precip is back on the table. The question is, what are the odds of that occurring? Given the model trends today, those odds seem to have decreased.

We have that fresh Snowpack form that Storm in in the Central Plains.

[orangeblood]

We are back baby!! the roller coaster continues

18Z Euro

[CaptinCrunch]

Models do not handle cold like it does heat, the models will continue to struggle, by Monday we will have a much better idea of the event, cold rain, snow, or nothing at all.

I'm betting the colder runs will start showing back up on Sunday, either way I just loaded up the wood rack next to the fireplace.

[txtwister78]

Bottom line is there is simply not enough cold air anymore. It seemed that the cold was a certainty and precip was a question. Now, it’s just the opposite. Sheesh!!!

I think we may be underestimating the cold that’s coming.

The one thing that may help that models won't see until short range guidance getss into play is how much snow cover gets put down over the weekend and whether that could help further south in terms of cooling temps a few more degrees but this doesn't look like arctic air that we've seen on a map that is screaming cold for next wk (highs in the mid to upper 20's etc with wind chills in the teens). We've all seen those events on this board modeled and despite models not alwas having a good handle with shallow arctic fronts, I'd still like to see more cold around when the system from the SW decides to come out (hopefully sooner rather than later in the week). Right now most models outside of ICON and steroid CMC have temps in the upper 30's to low 40's. So yeah things need to change in one hell of a hurry if you're looking for colder weather next week that can deliver. I don't see where your going to get it right now.

If that wasn't enough, it's not even a question of cold anymore, but it's also timing of the system dropping into the SW and when that comes out or does it remain cuttoff and meander. Much more complicated than just the cold unfortutely. Red flags for snow as mentioned earlier.

[txtwister78]

We are back baby!! the roller coaster continues

18Z Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1735927200/1736445600-WEPxiIcgFZg.png

Doesn't that look worse or at a minimum similar to the 12z Euro. 12z had snow a bit further south didn't it? 18z looks more like a Panhandle event down into Lubbock area

[GeauxTigers]

I’m sorry for the dumb question, and i know everyone is wondering same thing. But, seems lots of talk about central and south TX. I’m on border of Grayson/Denton counties so more north TX/ Red River county. What’s ya’lls predictions for this area given latest data? I understand things will change on each run and nothing to latch on to until Monday. Just was wondering if my area is in the game or a spectator. Thanks!

[Stratton23]

David Paul of KHOU in houston has a wintry mix in the forecast for the houston metro , getting some mixed signals lol

[wxman22]

18Z Euro is faster with the trough and phases the energy sooner than the 12Z run. Which allows more cold air to tap into when the storm moves into the state.

[txtwister78]

I’m sorry for the dumb question, and i know everyone is wondering same thing. But, seems lots of talk about central and south TX. I’m on border of Grayson/Denton counties so more north TX/ Red River county. What’s ya’lls predictions for this area given latest data? I understand things will change on each run and nothing to latch on to until Monday. Just was wondering if my area is in the game or a spectator. Thanks!

Right now it's really a wait and see. Models are still not helping with that question and in terms of Central/SC TX region, ensembles have ironically been more bullish across this region for snow than they have further north but I (as you can see from my previous post) remain very skeptical about the amount/type of cold for next week, particularly when the system dropping into the Baja region begins to potentially impact our state.

So bottom line I'm right there with you. More questions than answers unfortuntely at this stage. We should see things begin to clear up though via ensembles over the weekend inside of 5 days.

[txtwister78]

David Paul of KHOU in houston has a wintry mix in the forecast for the houston metro , getting some mixed signals lol

One of our mets here locally has 40% chance of a mix Thursday morning but he was looking at ensembles he mentioned and things could change (as they always do with weather).

[SnowintheFalls]

I know models during Texas winters are a rollercoaster but man has this been one extreme to the next! One model will show the snow globe shaken up north, the next model shows the snow globe shaken down south and then the snow globe is shown to be forgotten on the mantle untouched. Regardless of what happens it has been fun to watch!

[gpsnowman]

We are back baby!! the roller coaster continues

18Z Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1735927200/1736445600-WEPxiIcgFZg.png

I'm not sure my heart can take much more or this.

[GeauxTigers]

I’m sorry for the dumb question, and i know everyone is wondering same thing. But, seems lots of talk about central and south TX. I’m on border of Grayson/Denton counties so more north TX/ Red River county. What’s ya’lls predictions for this area given latest data? I understand things will change on each run and nothing to latch on to until Monday. Just was wondering if my area is in the game or a spectator. Thanks!

Right now it's really a wait and see. Models are still not helping with that question and in terms of Central/SC TX region, ensembles have ironically been more bullish across this region for snow than they have further north but I (as you can see from my previous post) remain very skeptical about the amount/type of cold for next week, particularly when the system dropping into the Baja region begins to potentially impact our state.

So bottom line I'm right there with you. More questions than answers unfortuntely at this stage. We should see things begin to clear up though via ensembles over the weekend inside of 5 days.

Thank you so much for taking the time to acknowledge my question and for your insight! Much appreciated!

[txtwister78]

I’m sorry for the dumb question, and i know everyone is wondering same thing. But, seems lots of talk about central and south TX. I’m on border of Grayson/Denton counties so more north TX/ Red River county. What’s ya’lls predictions for this area given latest data? I understand things will change on each run and nothing to latch on to until Monday. Just was wondering if my area is in the game or a spectator. Thanks!

Right now it's really a wait and see. Models are still not helping with that question and in terms of Central/SC TX region, ensembles have ironically been more bullish across this region for snow than they have further north but I (as you can see from my previous post) remain very skeptical about the amount/type of cold for next week, particularly when the system dropping into the Baja region begins to potentially impact our state.

So bottom line I'm right there with you. More questions than answers unfortuntely at this stage. We should see things begin to clear up though via ensembles over the weekend inside of 5 days.

Thank you so much for taking the time to acknowledge my question and for your insight! Much appreciated!

Absolutely...anytime!

[Yukon Cornelius]

We are back baby!! the roller coaster continues

18Z Euro
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/instant_ptype/1735927200/1736445600-WEPxiIcgFZg.png

Lock it in

[TropicalTundra]

Brent’s been awfully quiet today. Must be a sign….

[Brent]

Brent’s been awfully quiet today. Must be a sign….

Well I drove to Kansas City and now I'm wondering when I'll be able to go home NWS saying a foot possible

[gpsnowman]

Brent’s been awfully quiet today. Must be a sign….

Well I drove to Kansas City and now I'm wondering when I'll be able to go home NWS saying a foot possible

Haha good for you. Post some pics or it didn't happen.

[Brent]

Brent’s been awfully quiet today. Must be a sign….

Well I drove to Kansas City and now I'm wondering when I'll be able to go home NWS saying a foot possible

Haha good for you. Post some pics or it didn't happen.

I mean I get the point about it not being the same but I always regretted last year that I didn't come up here for some storm and this one is bigger

[Gotwood]

Brent’s been awfully quiet today. Must be a sign….

Well I drove to Kansas City and now I'm wondering when I'll be able to go home NWS saying a foot possible

I’ve honestly thought about driving to Kansas to see some snow. Starting to itch lol