Moderator: S2k Moderators
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
Ivanhater wrote:Brent wrote:12z Euro buries the Southeast followed by brutal cold. GFS has the brutal cold but not much snow.
Much nicer out today. Not really cold but the wind is biting.
Where is the snow falling on the Euro?
Euro, GFS, and Canadian agree on Deepsouth Blizzard next week!
ARCTIC EXPRESS NEXT WEEK: I still don’t have much interest in the specifics of the individual model runs right now. They don’t understand the depth of the cold air over Alaska and Northwest Canada, and it will struggle with it as it moves down into the continental U.S. next week. MOS products won’t be very helpful, and we will go well below them. I am just interested in the pattern.
I have had e-mails from people telling me about TV stations, weather offices, and individuals that are forecasting highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s next week. I honestly don’t care about what others are saying; sounds like anyone forecasting that is simply using climatological normals in the 5 to 7 day period.
Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics associated with this discussion.
WOW: Check out what J.B. Elliott says in his afternoon forecast package over on the seven day page:
“You will rarely see me predicting snow more than two or three days in advance, but I believe this time we will have a chance of seeing some snow about one week from now. By next Wednesday, we are looking at a huge powerful high-pressure system with a central pressure of 1060mb pushing into Montana. (1060mb is about as strong a high that you will ever see in the lower 48.) About one week from today, that bitter cold will be overrunning Alabama and could bring us our coldest temperatures so far this season. Stay tuned as this little weather drama unfolds over the next several days. Be sure and read/listen closely to James’s extreme video updates. He will be showing graphics that support all of this. ”
J.B. is very conservative in medium range forecasting, so that really gets our attention. He has been going weather professionally over 50 years, you know.
WHAT WE KNOW: It will be very cold next week; the coldest air so far this season, and perhaps in several years. I still think highs will be in the 30s and lows in the teens at mid-week, and most likely the cold air will be very shallow, which means you won’t see it reflected in the 1000 to 500 mb thickness values on model charts. The cold air will be in place Tuesday through Friday. A few flurries could accompany the cold air Monday night and Tuesday, but the air should be too dry for serious problems. Confidence level in very cold weather is high.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: If we will have snow or ice at the end of the week. The 12 GFS continues this idea for Thursday, with thickness values low enough for snow. After years of dealing with this kind of outbreak; I have concern that the cold air will be too shallow for snow, allowing for freezing rain. Every model run will look different, let’s wait until Monday until we get really specific. Just understand the idea of some ice or snow is on the table for the latter half of next week.
VOODOO LAND: The NAO flips positive for the last week of the month and we should see moderating temperatures at that time. There could be one more wintry weather threat before that happens, however, as you can see on the Weather Xtreme video.
GFS/ECMWF MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS THE
FRONT EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT...STILL EXPECTING COOLER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND IT. THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...PROVIDING MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS SHOWING UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF TROF PASSAGES AND
SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AND CAN
NOT BE CERTAIN OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ALSO THROUGH TUESDAY.
HOWEVER..STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD AND BLUSTERY...WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. BEHIND THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
OF 2009 THUS FAR...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
SLIGHT WARMER THURSDAY AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO MOVE BACK
INTO THE AREA AS NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED PERIODS LOOK DRY WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA MID-WEEK AND CONTINUES TO REINFORCE THE COLD
AIR...BUT DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT PCPN...EXPECT
POSSIBLY OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED -SHSN IN THE N GA MOUNTAINS. THEN...
THE MAIN ARCTIC FRONT OF THE WEEK...SUPPORTED BY THE 1059MB ARCTIC
HIGH REFERENCED ABOVE...MOVES INTO THE AREA AT THE VERY END OF THE
EXTENDED. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM MAY
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR LIGHT WINTER TYPE PCPN. THICKNESS AND TEMPS
DICTATE THAT MUCH OF THIS WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR SLEET...SO
FOR NOW AM FORCED TO ADVERTISE SLGHT CHC -SN ACROSS THE N HALF OF
THE CWA AND -RA ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SNOW EVENTS IN THE SOUTH IN ADVANCE OF COLD
FRONTS...OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...ARE VERY RARE...SO CONFIDENCE IN
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LOW.
rsvh2000 wrote:man...ain't that something....looks like cold air will be in place next week, but limited to no moisture........oh well, we'll keep hoping.....
THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF INTEREST BRINGS THE SMALL THREAT OF
PRECIP TO AREAS NORTH OF I20 ON TUESDAY MORNING. AS OF WRITING...IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT
DID DECIDE TO KEEP THE THREAT FOR RAIN OR SNOW AROUND DAYBREAK.
THINKING THAT THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE BHM AREA...BUT AGAIN...NO REAL CONCERNS AS FAR
AS ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL. THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE
THE FIRST BLAST OF POLAR/ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECT CLOSE TO THE COLDEST TEMPS OF THE WINTER SO FAR
WITH ALL LOCATIONS UNDER THE 30 DEGREE MARK.
LOOK FOR SOME MODERATION ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER FRONT ON THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE FLIPPED
AND THEN FLOPPED ON WHETHER THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE ANY PRECIP. IF
IT DOES...IT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. FOR
NOW...GOING TO KEEP IT DRY...BUT WILL BE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO
ANY TREND CHANGES WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. JUST AS TUESDAY...THE
STORY THURSDAY WILL BE THE TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT FOLLOWS. WE
MAY BE LOOKING AT TEMPS COLDER THAN ANY OF US HAVE SEEN IN QUITE
SOME TIME...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING INTO THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE
TEENS. WE WILL BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR HARD FREEZE CRITERIA FROM
NEXT FRIDAY ONWARD.
Dean4Storms wrote:The GFS 12z today paints an ugly picture for next Monday for all of the deep south although it stands alone in its depiction of this low forming and running up the east coast.
This week looks just cold and dry with Thursday and Friday looking to be the coldest.
Seems like once a week its 7 day forecast shows something major for us in the south. 
THE THURSDAY FRONT...TRUE ARCTIC FRONT...WILL BE THE HEADLINE OF
THE WEEK AS SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE DEWPOINTS AND SINGLE DIGITS ARE
LIKELY BY FRIDAY MORNING. NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WIND CHILLS
AS WELL...AS THE FORECAST IS GENERATING NEGATIVE WIND CHILL VALUES
FOR EARLY FRIDAY. LOOKING LIKE WE WILL ALSO DEFINITELY NEED THE
HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS SATURDAY.
PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS NOW TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM THE
HARSH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE EXPECTED BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNING. JUST AS A SIDE...THE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY LOOKS
BONE DRY FROM TOP TO BOTTOM...SO WENT AHEAD A TOOK OUT ANY MENTION
OF FLURRIES.
FINALLY THE LONGEST TERM STILL LOOKS MIGHTY CONFUSING...BUT AT
THIS POINT I AM STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE IDEA OF A GULF LOW
DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW/ICE/RAIN IN THE CARDS FOR CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FINALLY...THE GFS HAS ALSO COME TO
THE SAME CONCLUSION...WHICH SOMETIMES IT TAKES IT A LITTLE LONGER
TO CATCH UP. SORRY WINTER PRECIP FANS...HAVE TO STICK WITH NO POPS
OR WX FOR THE WEEKEND.
PHASE TWO: The coldest air is due in here Thursday and Friday. I figure the high Thursday will be around 32, with a wind chill index in the single digits much of the day; some places north of Birmingham could see sub-zero wind chill values during the day. Again, a few flurries are possible, but the air remains dry. The bottom will drop out Friday morning, with most places seeing a low between 10 and 15 degrees, with colder valleys dropping into the 4 to 9 degree range. This is pipe bursting weather, and is about as cold as it gets here with no snow cover. Preparations need to continue as the cold air is now knocking on the door.
THE WEEKEND: A strong short wave will rotate through here on Sunday, and we will mention just a chance of some light rain or light snow, but at this point global models show very limited moisture, and it doesn’t look like a big threat. Low level thickness values suggest mostly snow flakes for areas along and north of I-20, but Sunday is a long way away and we can focus on this later in the week.
.Users browsing this forum: wxman22 and 16 guests
