Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TrekkerCC]

Tomorrow night, the NAM will begin to pick up this storm on the 0z run and lets see what happens before we talk about snow totals and stuff like that..

::waves to everyone:: I'm delurking for the wintertime.

I want to first say that it is looking cautiously optimistic for a possible cold core winter event sometime next week. The track of the cold core upper-level low, if it materializes as the models say it will, will probably make someone lucky. However, I caution people from using the NAM too far out. It tends to lock into events within 48 hours from the event, and so using the 48-84 hour NAM model projections is dicey. Just as the GFS has a range of time periods where it is relatively good (typically 0-180hrs at the maximum), NAM has a range of time periods where it is relatively good (0-48 hours).

-Trek

[richtrav]

Your high and mighty horse is well high and mighty huh?

Ok that part I don't get, I think you're taking a lot of what I say too seriously

Maybe you have us confused with people on the Accuweather forums.

Agreed, there are certainly more hysterical forums out there

I can see you have A LOT of skepticism, and you're tired of models showing something, and it never happening. I understand that, but just cause we repeat what the models are showing doesn't mean we're crying chicken. Whatever that means I personally have never seen a chicken cry

From wikipedia:
The Sky Is Falling, better known as Chicken Licken, Henny Penny or Chicken Little is an old fable about a chicken (or a hare in early versions) who believes the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent.

And yes I do root for huge snowstorms of course the damage they can do is terrible, but one it never really gets that bad here anymore, and two it's going to happen whether we root for it, or not. So I'd rather see a huge snowstorm then not.

Hmmmm, so you are one of them (I certainly hope you can tell I'm joking with you). Actually it's not the snow so much as the extremely low temperatures that's the problem. And to most people's credit here, they do seem to have a penchant for snow much more than the pipe-busting, cattle-killing, citrus-splitting hard freeze, especially if it's dry. And yes I'll grant you it does look neat to see snow falling and yes of course I agree there's nothing any of us can do about it

You play a good game though. "I see we're at about one week out now from the next disappointment" good statement. It's good in two ways if it doesn't happen you can say "I told you so" but if it does happen you can just say "finally got lucky, what's that one out a million?"

Sorry if you didn't appreciate my lame attempt at humor, it was nothing more nothing less

There is no point of being that negative.

Actually I don't see where I'm being negative (now the end of the first post was a bit too taunting, I do apologize for that). But this trend towards milder winters is a serious question with very profound implications that few people here seem wiling to discuss, that's what leads me to think some people here are living in denial. The potential effects of milder winters on agriculture, horticulture, urban forestry, and ecology are highly significant. The million dollar question of course is how long will it hold up: 1 year? 10 years? 100 years? It makes a huge difference to some people, especially to anyone in the above fields. Of course that's a very difficult question to answer but still it's one that should be considered

Part of the fun for me is the build up to it whether it happens, or not.

Oh man, glad you can enjoy it more than I - staring at a revolver may be a rush to some people but some of us get very nervous (or at least we used to)

Following the models is almost just as fun.

OK well now that can be kind of fun, but purely for entertainment purposes only

This is a forum to DISCUSS THE WINTER, and we're discussing the winter, weird huh?. No one is guaranteeing anything.

I totally agree, but the point I've been trying to make is that many people on this board seem to be living in the past. From where I'm standing it looks like the winter weather in Texas has definitely changed, it's not 1979 any more. Sorry if my teasing about this got some people riled up. But look at the other aspects of our climate: hot summers, pesky droughts, big floods, hurricanes, extreme storms/tornados, etc, they're all still there. In short, every disastrous weather event that pretty much defines the uniquely extreme Texas climate is still present except for the super Arctic outbreak. Whether you want to blame it on global warming or think it's more of a cycle like hurricane activity is debatable (though I'm just about ready to rule out "sheer luck" as an explanation), but you can't just look back at the past 20 years and then take a look at just about any period before that and believe it's business as usual.

I've tried to get as much information on Texas winters as I can (anything before the mid-1800s is very hard to find and mostly anecdotal, a lot of times you have to extrapolate by what went on in Louisiana), and from what I can gleam this warm winter roll we've been on is unprecedented in the past 200 years at least. There is evidence that Florida and the SE Atlantic coast used to be milder in the 1700s than the 19th and 20th centuries but we have no such records for here. Like you said, this a forum for the discussion of winter weather, and I think it's a very relevant topic to bring up. Down here in deep South Texas a hard freeze is the worst natural disaster we can face, surpassing hurricanes, flooding, and drought. If there's evidence that this threat may be diminishing it would definitely be a big deal, even if it were only to last another couple of decades.

[Portastorm]

And the 120h says.. YOUR CRAZY GFS!! hahaha I knew it couldnt last..

ECMWF shows cold air goes bye bye very quickly.. While at 120h GFS shows cold air sticking in place..

I remember back in the day being told that the ECMWF always has problems with 850mb temps and cut off 500's.. I wonder if that is still the case..

hmmm

Oh well.. Stll not the best set up, but West Central Texas gets 2-4 inches, while West Texas gets 4-6 inches with this setup..

The Euro still has the tendency to lay back the upper lows (500 mb) in the Southwest. That hasn't changed. Don't know about the 850mb temp issue though. I do know that the GFS also has trouble tracking shallow Arctic airmasses and is almost always too slow in the timing depiction.

[Portastorm]

Hey richtrav, I don't think there is any doubt in my mind that winters in the last two decades in Texas are much milder than what was seen previously. But I've read on other forums from some pro mets who believe with a waning sunspot cycle and other atmosphere parameters that the next 10-15 years should see winters more like pre-1990.

For the record, I abhor the pipe-busting Arctic outbreaks that wreak havoc in south Texas. I'm intrigued by the absolute weather aspect of them but in terms of what they do to the average Texan's life and livelihood ... forget it! And it seems to me like many here if not all of us have pretty much said that kind of cold without snow or ice is worthless. So, I'm not sure I remember any posts where an S2Ker was cheering on pipe-busting cold.

But what I cannot understand is why you believe "many of this board" are "living in the past." How are we doing that, by following model runs and making comments about them and what possible winter weather they may be predicting? Please explain.

[snow and ice]

The 12z EURO looks awfully, awfully cold the end of next week. Anyone checked on the source regions of air the past couple days. I've been too busy with work and putting up Christmas lights to check.

12Z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112612!!/

[gofrogs]

Well boys this storm is done for the fort worth area doesnt look like well be seeing anything remotely close to winter precip in the next week or so.

[iorange55]

Well boys this storm is done for the fort worth area doesnt look like well be seeing anything remotely close to winter precip in the next week or so.

And you're basing that off of.......what?

[gofrogs]

The gfs unfortunatley doesnt look to good what do you think?

[srainhoutx]

The 12z EURO looks awfully, awfully cold the end of next week. Anyone checked on the source regions of air the past couple days. I've been too busy with work and putting up Christmas lights to check.

12Z EURO:
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 9112612!!/

Western Siberia and Alaska. The 12Z EC is suggesting wintry precip with disturbances riding along the STJ over a good chunk of TX late next week. Keep on eye on CA for Upper Air Disturbances as the Polar Jet swings S behind the Arctic Boundry. Our temps will not be record breaking or extreme, but cold enough to support frozen precip if the guidance is correct IMHO.

[gofrogs]

i wish i doubt it unfoils, i wonder if any of the pro mets will buy into that solution as well

[cheezyWXguy]

i wish i doubt it unfoils, i wonder if any of the pro mets will buy into that solution as well

for someone living in the DFW area, ur pretty pessimistic about winter weather.
anyway its all a waiting game. It may very well not happen, but then again, it might

[gofrogs]

yeah well see but i hope something big comes up soon

[weatherguy425]

Is it me or does the onset of the "cold air" keep getting pushed further and further back?

[cheezyWXguy]

Is it me or does the onset of the "cold air" keep getting pushed further and further back?

It doesnt...its just less cold air than predicted a week ago. It tends to happen.

[richtrav]

Hey richtrav, I don't think there is any doubt in my mind that winters in the last two decades in Texas are much milder than what was seen previously. But I've read on other forums from some pro mets who believe with a waning sunspot cycle and other atmosphere parameters that the next 10-15 years should see winters more like pre-1990.

For the record, I abhor the pipe-busting Arctic outbreaks that wreak havoc in south Texas. I'm intrigued by the absolute weather aspect of them but in terms of what they do to the average Texan's life and livelihood ... forget it! And it seems to me like many here if not all of us have pretty much said that kind of cold without snow or ice is worthless. So, I'm not sure I remember any posts where an S2Ker was cheering on pipe-busting cold.

But what I cannot understand is why you believe "many of this board" are "living in the past." How are we doing that, by following model runs and making comments about them and what possible winter weather they may be predicting? Please explain.

Well the living in the past part is kind of an inside joke (I get accused of it all the time). Please don't take my bad jokes too seriously!! But still, I can't help but think how some on this board would have been tickled to death back in the 70s and 80s, back when we had REAL winter weather.

About those sunspots, yes they're certainly worth paying attention to, though I don't have a clue whether their absence will last long enough to have much of an impact. Eventually they'll come back so I would think any cooling they might bring would probably be temporary. Other events like the occasional volcanic eruption will probably come up as well

What interests me most is what is going to happen when a setup similar to 1989, 83, 62, 51, 49, 30 etc eventually happens again in the state (or even a '90, 85, 82, 63, 48, 33...). And why haven't they transpired for so long? Have they, but are events working so much against them that they just can't get it going? We've had some pretty nasty pops in fall and spring the past decade but nothing approaching a record breaker in the middle of winter. Something always seems to go wrong when the look is there, the Lucy and the football analogy used here is spot on. Even the garden variety outbreaks seem to be milder than 20 years ago. One year, when the stars line up just right and the gate to the North Pole opens up it will be interesting to see just how bad it will be (not that I'm looking forward to it). Trying to predict this is difficult if not impossible, but some of us have to try and anticipate what we think will happen since it will have consequences for us and want to make the best educated guess we possibly can

[weatherguy425]

It doesnt...its just less cold air than predicted a week ago. It tends to happen.

It's the "it tends to happen" that has me pessemistic, especially with this kind of pattern which relies on many variables to allow the cold air to make it this far south...

[cheezyWXguy]

Hey richtrav, I don't think there is any doubt in my mind that winters in the last two decades in Texas are much milder than what was seen previously. But I've read on other forums from some pro mets who believe with a waning sunspot cycle and other atmosphere parameters that the next 10-15 years should see winters more like pre-1990.

For the record, I abhor the pipe-busting Arctic outbreaks that wreak havoc in south Texas. I'm intrigued by the absolute weather aspect of them but in terms of what they do to the average Texan's life and livelihood ... forget it! And it seems to me like many here if not all of us have pretty much said that kind of cold without snow or ice is worthless. So, I'm not sure I remember any posts where an S2Ker was cheering on pipe-busting cold.

But what I cannot understand is why you believe "many of this board" are "living in the past." How are we doing that, by following model runs and making comments about them and what possible winter weather they may be predicting? Please explain.

Well the living in the past part is kind of an inside joke (I get accused of it all the time). Please don't take my bad jokes too seriously!! But still, I can't help but think how some on this board would have been tickled to death back in the 70s and 80s, back when we had REAL winter weather.

About those sunspots, yes they're certainly worth paying attention to, though I don't have a clue whether their absence will last long enough to have much of an impact. Eventually they'll come back so I would think any cooling they might bring would probably be temporary. Other events like the occasional volcanic eruption will probably come up as well

What interests me most is what is going to happen when a setup similar to 1989, 83, 62, 51, 49, 30 etc eventually happens again in the state (or even a '90, 85, 82, 63, 48, 33...). And why haven't they transpired for so long? Have they, but are events working so much against them that they just can't get it going? We've had some pretty nasty pops in fall and spring the past decade but nothing approaching a record breaker in the middle of winter. Something always seems to go wrong when the look is there, the Lucy and the football analogy used here is spot on. Even the garden variety outbreaks seem to be milder than 20 years ago. One year, when the stars line up just right and the gate to the North Pole opens up it will be interesting to see just how bad it will be (not that I'm looking forward to it). Trying to predict this is difficult if not impossible, but some of us have to try and anticipate what we think will happen since it will have consequences for us and want to make the best educated guess we possibly can

For the most part its true, that the artic blasts have been milder, but an event that sticks out in my mind is the 2004 storm when places like victoria texas got 13 inches of snow. Hell, even brownsville got 2.Sure it wasnt rididculously cold, but it was enough to drop a ton of snow by texas standards. Thats really all I wish for is the snow, not the incredibly frigid air...just enough to keep us below freezing long enough for me to get some good snow and a day or two off of school.
Frankly, I could care less about breaking temperature records

[Ntxw]

I couldn't agree more. When it is just cold enough for snow for us to make snowmen and memories is about enough. When it gets so cold that it ruins an industry (economically) like it has in the past for places like south Texas is a bit too much. Though I'd say a cold rain is a close second

[iorange55]

I don't know about next week it looks really complicated. Looks like least here in Dallas it'll start off as Rain on sunday, and monday. Then it might be dry Tuesday before possibly the low comes over us on Wednesday, and maybe gives a chance of some winter precip. I thought the GFS 06 did away with the low, but it didn't.




But one thing is for sure it will be getting colder, so that's a step in the right direction.

[iorange55]

Also I find it interesting that the Dallas NWS was once so sure we would not see any frozen precip, but now it looks like they might be slowly changing their mind.

ECMWF AND GFS BOTH FORECAST AN UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY...AND SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A COLD RAIN EVENT. IF
PRECIP COULD LINGER LONGER INTO WEDNESDAY THAN MODELS
FORECAST...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL COOL OFF ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME
SLUSHY SNOW MIXING INTO THE RAIN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO EVEN IF IT OCCURRED IT WOULD NOT BE A
BIG EVENT. I HAVE NOT INCLUDED THE MIXED PRECIP IN THE FORECAST
BECAUSE MODELS CURRENTLY CUT PRECIP OFF BEFORE THE COOLING
OCCURS.

The new GFS 06z shows it lingering into Wednesday, and is a little slower with the low. I wouldn't mind it not sticking too much, it'd just be nice to see, and give us hope for a better winter this year.