Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Euro has Dallas near 70 degrees next Wednesday lol

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro 168 hours, mighty cold that is for sure.



Compare to the 12Z GFS at the same timeframe:

[Brent]

Dallas goes from near 70 degrees Wednesday afternoon to below freezing after midnight on the Euro. Low in the mid 20s. Thursday afternoon it's still near freezing.

[JayDT]

12Z Euro 168 hours, mighty cold that is for sure.



Compare to the 12Z GFS at the same timeframe:

I'm really rooting for the euro!

[Brent]

Almost a 50 degree drop at DFW on the Euro... low 20s Friday morning. Thursday's high is a balmy 33 it appears.

[gpsnowman]

Euro has Dallas near 70 degrees next Wednesday lol

If it gets that warm, that is quite a shock to the system with a temp drop that quickly. I hope we are done with 70's for a long time. A "blue norther" in the making.

[Brent]

Next Friday's high isn't much warmer... still in the 30s at DFW. Saturday warms up to near 50

[Ralph's Weather]

GFS seems too fast and progressive. Euro looks like it will win this round soundly vs the GFS which has been all over the place. Still almost a week to go so maybe the GFS catches up in the medium range. At least there is not a question of if but only how severe this Arctic blast will be and if there will be any excitement behind the front. And this will not be a one off front as there appears to be a nice succession of Arctic fronts though without a good -EPO nothing extreme appears likely. The WPO looks to stay very negative though with very strong ridging over the Bering Straight. Aleutian lows moving through the GoA keep the EPO from tanking.

[Ntxw]

With the kind of anomalies up north in the source region, and given we usually expect colder than modeled, I would tend to believe the euro numbers

[Golf7070]

Can someone post the 192hr euro please. Also，is it possible to get any alaska ridging this winter or is that not happening? Does anyone think we can get a period of locking in on cold weather or will it be transient all winter? If so, imo it will be rather difficult to get any snow or / ice

[Ralph's Weather]

Can someone post the 192hr euro please. Also，is it possible to get any alaska ridging this winter or is that not happening? Does anyone think we can get a period of locking in on cold weather or will it be transient all winter? If so, imo it will be rather difficult to get any snow or / ice

The advantage I see (no research just my own reasoning) with a -WPO, -AO and =EPO is the cold can still build in Canada and be released any time the EPO takes a dip while GoA lows undercut the ridge and slide down into the SW. This seems to me like a good situation for wintery precip especially later in the season as we naturally cool down further. Take this weekends system, in late winter with more cold in place things would be much more interesting. In a pure -EPO it is mostly just dry cold.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Can someone post the 192hr euro please. Also，is it possible to get any alaska ridging this winter or is that not happening? Does anyone think we can get a period of locking in on cold weather or will it be transient all winter? If so, imo it will be rather difficult to get any snow or / ice

The advantage I see (no research just my own reasoning) with a -WPO, -AO and =EPO is the cold can still build in Canada and be released any time the EPO takes a dip while GoA lows undercut the ridge and slide down into the SW. This seems to me like a good situation for wintery precip especially later in the season as we naturally cool down further. Take this weekends system, in late winter with more cold in place things would be much more interesting. In a pure -EPO it is mostly just dry cold.

This. If you want 20 and dry a severely negative EPO is what you want. If you want storms, read above

[Golf7070]

Can someone post the 192hr euro please. Also，is it possible to get any alaska ridging this winter or is that not happening? Does anyone think we can get a period of locking in on cold weather or will it be transient all winter? If so, imo it will be rather difficult to get any snow or / ice

The advantage I see (no research just my own reasoning) with a -WPO, -AO and =EPO is the cold can still build in Canada and be released any time the EPO takes a dip while GoA lows undercut the ridge and slide down into the SW. This seems to me like a good situation for wintery precip especially later in the season as we naturally cool down further. Take this weekends system, in late winter with more cold in place things would be much more interesting. In a pure -EPO it is mostly just dry cold.

This. If you want 20 and dry a severely negative EPO is what you want. If you want storms, read above

If thats true， whats missing for us to have a decent shot at a winter event?

[Ralph's Weather]

If thats true， whats missing for us to have a decent shot at a winter event?

I think we will have a number of chances this winter. We have almost a 6 month spread between our earliest snow and latest snow around here ad we are just now entering month 2 of that spread. The overall atmospheric conditions are good for us so we just have to wait our turn at this point.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The advantage I see (no research just my own reasoning) with a -WPO, -AO and =EPO is the cold can still build in Canada and be released any time the EPO takes a dip while GoA lows undercut the ridge and slide down into the SW. This seems to me like a good situation for wintery precip especially later in the season as we naturally cool down further. Take this weekends system, in late winter with more cold in place things would be much more interesting. In a pure -EPO it is mostly just dry cold.

This. If you want 20 and dry a severely negative EPO is what you want. If you want storms, read above

If thats true， whats missing for us to have a decent shot at a winter event?

Snow pack to our north and as srain says "stepping down"

[srainhoutx]

The ECMWF EPS suggests a fairly potent early December Bering Sea/Alaska blocking regime that has at least two shots of colder air heading South. The OP Euro suggests freezing temperatures to the NW and Central Gulf Coast is possible next Thursday morning.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX not as bullish with the freezing cold next week, but decent rain chances the next few days.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 012201
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
401 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
The beginning of the long anticipated pattern change begins
tonight as low level moisture advection increases across South
Texas and sets up an overunning pattern across our area.
Initially, hi-res models are hinting at some sprinkles beginning
across the Rio Grande Plains and slowly increasing in coverage
and intensity throughout the day Friday as upper level winds
increase to 70-80 kts. Mid level drying should keep rainfall
intensity fairly light, resulting in probably a lot of radar
returns but not a whole lot of measured rainfall.

Things change moving into the overnight period Friday night as a
warm front will advance northward to the EWX/CRP border and the
850 mb LLJ increases to 40+ kts. This will set up a low level
convergence maximum along the front and coupled with the very
moist low level atmosphere, should increase intensity of the
rainfall and spread northward. Heavy rainfall potential will
likely be maximized during this period, likely after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Near or just before daybreak Saturday, the aforementioned warm
front enhancement should increase rainfall intensity and push
northward. GFS solutions put the 1.5 PWAT line across the I-35
corridor Saturday through Monday with decreasing precipitation
efficiency west and increasing efficiency east. As a result,
after the initial surge of potentially heavy rainfall Saturday
morning, multiple periods of upper level shortwaves will pass over
the area resulting in light to occasional moderate rain totals
west and more consistently moderate to locally heavy east.

What this means is, while rainfall looks like it will be
consistently developing over the course of the weekend and
spreading across the area, rainfall amounts shouldn`t be too
impactful west of the I-35 corridor, and east, while certainly
favored to see some more rainfall over the next several days, will
likely be able to handle the 2-4 inches expected from all of these
factors. At this time, do not think that Flash Flooding is too
much of a concern, but having said that, minor flooding could
develop in some places and rivers/streams should respond and
elevate, perhaps to action or minor stages.

The system should clear out Monday rather progressively from the
west to the east and a couple days of dry and mild weather in
store until another cold front impacts the area next Wednesday or
Thursday. At the current time, while confidence continues to
increase in a strong cold front passage, how cold will it in fact
be remains in question. Significant model disagreement continues
with the placement of the surface high behind the front which will
play a key role in how cold it will get. At the moment, slightly
favored the ECMWF in the long term with freezing temperatures for
the northern half of the CWA Friday morning.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS is now a little slower with the front and colder for Texas so seems to be trending a little to the ECMWF.

[Brent]

King Euro lol

Appears to fail to make 40 at DFW on Thursday. Maybe 38-39

[Ntxw]

The guidance has quietly been trending colder as the timeframe has moved into the 7 day range. Nearly all of them now has most areas of NTX in the 20s and even down towards SE TX. Not long ago GFS barely had freezing. Interesting it drives near 1040hp into the panhandle

The outer suburbs I think could get into the teens.