Texas Winter 2017-2018

[spencer817]

Follows up with another arctic blast long range too....

[Brent]

before that a big rain event next Wednesday, heavy rainfall even

and yeah more wintry hints in fantasy land

the 0z CMC has a LOT of rain(a band of 6 inches in the DFW metroplex)

and snow in the Panhandle

[Cpv17]

Well the Euro is finally on board with some colder air. Only problem is that it has the brunt of the cold moving towards the southeast, not directly south.

[Brent]

Well the Euro is finally on board with some colder air. Only problem is that it has the brunt of the cold moving towards the southeast, not directly south.

Also very dry

I'm concerned we could miss out still with the core to the east for sure

[gpsnowman]

I am sure we will see some variance and flip floopin for the next week or so. Main thing is we get some colder air down here with some rain chances. Getting pretty dry around here.

[Ntxw]

I'm not worried about trajectory. This type of pattern is cold everywhere and for a good duration.

Watch the system next week and others behind it. They are very strong and may yield some surprises. Should one phase, katy bar the door

As mentioned above, the -EPO and PNA is trending stronger. We're likely to see arctic intrusions after the precipitation.

[EnnisTx]

I'm hoping for Artic intrusions with precipitation!!!!

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully, the Euro gives up on retrograding a portion of the SW energy. If that happens, then Texas ends up mostly dry and probably warms up faster. The models just can't keep significant rain inside 10 days right now.

[EnnisTx]

It's been quite a while since I've been on here. Where are the models located?

[spencer817]

Go to tropicaltidbits.com or search pivotal weather, those are 2 great sites for GFS and other modeling.

[Yukon Cornelius]

So, are chances looking good for cold air? Hopefully this wont be the first major disappointment of the season that we've unfortunately become accustomed to over the last couple of years.

[Brent]

CMC has a lot of rain, days of rain, not really any cold air tho

[Ntxw]

12z GFS goes 1983 bonkers with Alaskan ridging. Seemingly does this every December . Pattern looks really nice

[bubba hotep]

So, are chances looking good for cold air? Hopefully this wont be the first major disappointment of the season that we've unfortunately become accustomed to over the last couple of years.

Chances look good with the upcoming pattern. The real question is does this lock in or do we flip back to a warm period? Long range stuff is intriguing with indications of blocking extending into January and a favorable EPO.

[Ntxw]

So, are chances looking good for cold air? Hopefully this wont be the first major disappointment of the season that we've unfortunately become accustomed to over the last couple of years.

Chances look good with the upcoming pattern. The real question is does this lock in or do we flip back to a warm period? Long range stuff is intriguing with indications of blocking extending into January and a favorable EPO.

Yeah. We've seen blocking tendencies the past 30 days and rolling forward. May be the atmosphere is tipping the dealt card for the winter in terms of mid and high latitude blocks. We have just been unlucky in November not getting in line for intrusions.

[Brent]

So, are chances looking good for cold air? Hopefully this wont be the first major disappointment of the season that we've unfortunately become accustomed to over the last couple of years.

Chances look good with the upcoming pattern. The real question is does this lock in or do we flip back to a warm period? Long range stuff is intriguing with indications of blocking extending into January and a favorable EPO.

I'm first just hoping the big rain event holds up, Had a problem with this for months....

The cold air is kind of secondary to me.

My biggest concern is we remain dry and then the cold is transient

[Ntxw]

I am not as optimistic about rain than I am with cold air. Nina climo suggests believing wet solutions sets up disappointment. Long range OLR is not favorable and the eastern tropical Pacific is bone dry, no tropical connection for a legit rain event from the STJ. Cold is more variable but qpf is consistent to Nina background.

[Brent]

12z euro looks fairly wet and then much colder next Wednesday

[bubba hotep]

I am not as optimistic about rain than I am with cold air. Nina climo suggests believing wet solutions sets up disappointment. Long range OLR is not favorable and the eastern tropical Pacific is bone dry, no tropical connection for a legit rain event from the STJ. Cold is more variable but qpf is consistent to Nina background.

There aren't a lot of good analogs but the few years that I like, mostly based on QBO, offer some hope for rain/snow. Cold looks likely based on analogs but I'm still reluctant to bet against warmth given the small sample size. '00-01 is an example of a wet winter, so it is possible.

[bubba hotep]

12z euro looks fairly wet and then much colder next Wednesday

Yea, big change at H5. Results in DFW going from nothing at 00z to 1.5 - 4" (higher totals are E & SE) lol