Texas Winter 2019-2020

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we have a pretty consistent -EPO so the cold will be there just need to PNA to not shoot positive with every storm. That may happen after next week, but I want to see it in the sub 5 day range before I bite on it.

The stupid +PNA keeps killing us it's annoying

It has killed all of our chances in recent years. We need a -PNA for the low to deepen over Baja and pick up moisture then a transition to neutral PNA.

[Haris]

How come there hasn’t been a single post about the euro???

[Brent]

How come there hasn’t been a single post about the euro???

There is now





Also about half the GFS ensembles have some light snow for DFW Tuesday

[rwfromkansas]

Got to love the snow hole the Euro has over DFW.

[Cerlin]

I genuinely think the concrete jungle of DFW is going to be the deciding factor here

[Brent]

I genuinely think the concrete jungle of DFW is going to be the deciding factor here

Yeah the Euro only gets DFW down to 38 on Tuesday

[northjaxpro]

Looks like we have a pretty consistent -EPO so the cold will be there just need to PNA to not shoot positive with every storm. That may happen after next week, but I want to see it in the sub 5 day range before I bite on it.

The stupid +PNA keeps killing us it's annoying

It has killed all of our chances in recent years. We need a -PNA for the low to deepen over Baja and pick up moisture then a transition to neutral PNA.

Yes, a + PNA, when it occurs, also keeps the coldest (the core) of air primarily to the east and northeast of Texas in most instances. The + PNA has really helped to negate or offset the + NAO influence here in North and Northeast Florida to bring cold spells and freezes here, especially in recent years, including this past week.

[Ntxw]

Non-zero chance . The past few days the trend has been some separation of the shortwave and the main trough. That would be better moisture return and if timing is right.

[gpsnowman]

I genuinely think the concrete jungle of DFW is going to be the deciding factor here

Yeah the Euro only gets DFW down to 38 on Tuesday

Possible the front comes in colder? Wouldn't be the first time.

[Brent]

From FWD

The second more vigorous shortwave will dig eastward from
California Monday night into Tuesday morning. Strong synoptic-
scale ascent will occur downstream of this trough in conjunction
with an intensifying upper jet streak. This should aid in the
development of a mid-level frontogenetical band of precipitation
developing to our west and spreading eastward into the CWA Monday
night. The low levels will remain rather dry during this time
period, but light rainfall should eventually be capable of
reaching the ground as top-down saturation occurs. Evaporative
cooling will also aid in cooling the column in conjunction with
post-frontal cold advection. While a cold rain remains the most
likely precipitation type through Tuesday morning, there is at
least a low potential for some snow or sleet pellets to mix with
rain during this time period. Unfortunately, model spreads of low-
level temperature fields deviate highly on Tuesday morning, with
GEFS surface temperature differences of as much as 10-15F. The
low-level thermal profiles will be crucial for this forecast, but
there is much uncertainty still at this time. It`s worth noting
that only about ~20% of GEFS members suggest a potential for a
wintry mix, with the others either remaining too warm or too dry
through the low levels. The good news (barring any drastic
changes) is that surface temperatures are expected to be in the
mid or upper 30s, so even if a changeover to wintry precip could
occur, any accumulation or impacts would be unlikely. Precip is
expected to taper off to the southeast by Tuesday evening.

[gpsnowman]

Well I get up pretty early on Tuesdays so perhaps I can witness some tokenflizzardflakes. This is a new word that can be used in Scrabble by the way.

[CaptinCrunch]

Got to love the snow hole the Euro has over DFW.

Lower elevation and urban heat island

[Haris]

Hoping y’all in DFW cash in. We need it to snow somewhere for Pete sakes!

[bubba hotep]

Most encouraging run of the Euro Weeklies in a while.

Bubba. Do you know much about a standing wave in the indian ocean? I read about it today that it needs to weaken. Also, the IOD has been positive and i thought that promotes mjo in 8-2 phases. Mjo is still not moving much.

It has been dominating the global circulation for a good bit now.



The problem for us, now this is a very simplified view, the IOD is interfering with the MJO and not allowing for a true circulation. We keep getting an extended Pacific jet which encourages the +PNA and we need the Pacific jet to relax and allow the PNA to do the same.

Maybe chances for winter weather improve as we head towards Christmas?



As far as Tuesday, the models have shown lots of events like this the last couple of years but DFW has almost always dried out faster than the models were showing. Leaving us dry and cold. However, like Ntxw said, if we can get some separation and digging then we might luck out.

The 18z Ensembles actually look pretty good with the EPS showing about 15 members with winter wx in DFW. The 18z GEFS is below:



So maybe conversational flurries/sleet pellets to a dusting at best?

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro EPS

[Brent]

GFS is closer but not quite, does have some snow along the Red River

[Cerlin]

Truthfully I don’t feel great about DFW’s chances...but I have felt a lot worse about chances before so I’m hopeful.

[Brent]

Oh Canada!

[Brent]

Euro is a no go. Precip is gone quickly(and its way too warm in the metro anyway)

[Cerlin]

6z NAM not onboard with anything for Tuesday. Just rain.