Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Cerlin]

12z GFS looks like some of the coldest air of the season for DFW Christmas but no snow.

That would still be exciting regardless for Christmastime (anything is better than 70 degrees!) but that’s the unfortunate thing about this La Niña. I’m sure we’ll get plenty of cold shots, it’s just going to be so incredibly dry. I was checking the relative humidity index and it looks to be insanely low, so we’d need a lot of moisture aloft to overcome that and that’s going to be our challenge this year.

[Brent]

12z GFS looks like some of the coldest air of the season for DFW Christmas but no snow.

That would still be exciting regardless for Christmastime (anything is better than 70 degrees!) but that’s the unfortunate thing about this La Niña. I’m sure we’ll get plenty of cold shots, it’s just going to be so incredibly dry. I was checking the relative humidity index and it looks to be insanely low, so we’d need a lot of moisture aloft to overcome that and that’s going to be our challenge this year.

Same for the Euro sunny and highs in the 40s both days freeze Christmas morning

But again the best cold is to the east

[starsfan65]

12z GFS looks like some of the coldest air of the season for DFW Christmas but no snow.

That would still be exciting regardless for Christmastime (anything is better than 70 degrees!) but that’s the unfortunate thing about this La Niña. I’m sure we’ll get plenty of cold shots, it’s just going to be so incredibly dry. I was checking the relative humidity index and it looks to be insanely low, so we’d need a lot of moisture aloft to overcome that and that’s going to be our challenge this year.

Same for the Euro sunny and highs in the 40s both days freeze Christmas morning

But again the best cold is to the east

we got 8 days it will keep changing.

[Texas Snow]

First discussion from the NWS FWD about Christmas:

The front will blast through North and Central Texas on Wednesday,
bringing much colder and drier air to the region for the second
half of next week. Moisture will be quite limited once again and
POPs are confined to the eastern third of the region at this time.
Though still a bit too early to know for sure, it at least
appears that it will be plenty chilly as we approach the holiday,
with below-freezing overnight lows a good possibility Wednesday
night through Christmas morning.

[bubba hotep]

For those of us pulling for a Christmas miracle, watch that piece of Pacific energy coming across that is associated with the northern stream energy. Currently, the Euro cuts it off and leaves it behind to get trapped under the ridge as the northern stream energy crashes towards the SE. If we can get that Pacific s/w to be a bit more progressive and the northern branch to slow down a bit then the might be chance for that to wrap up into a Southern Plains storm like some runs of the GFS have shown.

[Brent]

For those of us pulling for a Christmas miracle, watch that piece of Pacific energy coming across that is associated with the northern stream energy. Currently, the Euro cuts it off and leaves it behind to get trapped under the ridge as the northern stream energy crashes towards the SE. If we can get that Pacific s/w to be a bit more progressive and the northern branch to slow down a bit then the might be chance for that to wrap up into a Southern Plains storm like some runs of the GFS have shown.

https://i.ibb.co/p2XvJHB/ecmwf-z500a-Norm-namer-5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020121712/ecmwf_z500aNorm_namer_9.png

I'm not holding my breath but as long as it doesn't snow east of us again

[gpsnowman]

Or north or south or west.

[gatorcane]

12z GFS looks like some of the coldest air of the season for DFW Christmas but no snow.

That would still be exciting regardless for Christmastime (anything is better than 70 degrees!) but that’s the unfortunate thing about this La Niña. I’m sure we’ll get plenty of cold shots, it’s just going to be so incredibly dry. I was checking the relative humidity index and it looks to be insanely low, so we’d need a lot of moisture aloft to overcome that and that’s going to be our challenge this year.

Same for the Euro sunny and highs in the 40s both days freeze Christmas morning

But again the best cold is to the east

Euro has mid 30s way down the Florida peninsula in Central Florida and the latest GFS looks about the same. The best cold looks east but we will see what happens.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Idk about yall in texas but North Georgia is looking pretty good for Christmas with snow on the scale of 2-4 inches.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Don´t lose hope because the models won´t have a clear run until the storm breaks up over the Rockies. That´s when we will get a good picture of things.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control specific to Houston Metro and SE TX:

Another cold and frosty morning over the region will quickly give way to increase moisture and clouds.

Moisture return looks impressive today as southerly winds on the backside of the recent cold high pressure develop over the state and ahead of the next cold front. Nighttime microphysics satellite images clearly show clouds advancing along the coast this morning with a solid deck of clouds moving quickly northward from the Rio Grande Valley. Mid and high level clouds/moisture is spilling into the state from the west ahead of the approaching trough. Moisture depth increases today and the air mass begins to saturate tonight. Clouds will quickly develop today and overspread much of the region along with increasing southerly winds into the 10-20mph range. Moisture may be enough by late afternoon and early evening for drizzle or light rain along the coast as a warm front begins to approach from the SW.

Patchy light rain and showers will develop tonight as the warm front nears the coast and a cold front approaches from the west. Expect a mixed bag of weather conditions with fog, drizzle, light rain, showers and eventually a few thunderstorms on Saturday morning over the region as the cold front pushes across. Front should reach our western counties in the 800-1000am period and then the I-45 corridor around noon and offshore by mid afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will end with the frontal passage and another cool and dry air mass will move into the region Sunday into early next week. Rainfall amounts will generally be in the .25 to .75 of an inch range with a few higher isolated totals.

High pressure overhead Sunday-Monday and then moves east allowing southerly onshore winds and a warm up/moisture increase Tuesday/Wednesday. May be just enough moisture to squeeze out some showers Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. This front will likely cross the area late on Wednesday with cold high pressure moving down the plains into TX for the end of next week. Christmas Eve and Day look cold and dry with lows in the 30’s and highs in the 50’s under generally sunny skies.

We had our second freeze of the season yesterday morning at 31.5f. 36.1f this morning.
Overall pattern is looking favorable for some "normal" winter temperatures and weather for SE TX for the foreseeable future into the New Year. FINGERS CROSSED!!

[Brent]

Unless something really changes the pattern is too progressive for Christmas

[starsfan65]

Unless something really changes the pattern is too progressive for Christmas

progressive?

[Brent]

Unless something really changes the pattern is too progressive for Christmas

progressive?

Progressive=Dry and quick cold shot

[Cpv17]

Unless something really changes the pattern is too progressive for Christmas

progressive?

Progressive=Dry and quick cold shot

The EC just seems to cash in a lot more often than we do.

[Cerlin]

FWIW, ICON seems to be way less progressive with the trough, but we’ll have to see if that trend continues. ICON has been really really good at hinting out Winter Weather this year so I wouldn’t undervalue it.

[Brent]

FWIW, ICON seems to be way less progressive with the trough, but we’ll have to see if that trend continues. ICON has been really really good at hinting out Winter Weather this year so I wouldn’t undervalue it.

The euro has some snow in Oklahoma this run Wednesday Night

[weatherdude1108]

1.5" of this morning! Nice surprise.

I'm amazed at the standing water in yard with how dry it has been over the past few months!
Still raining!

[Cpv17]

FWIW, ICON seems to be way less progressive with the trough, but we’ll have to see if that trend continues. ICON has been really really good at hinting out Winter Weather this year so I wouldn’t undervalue it.

The euro has some snow in Oklahoma this run Wednesday Night

The Euro is now further w with the trough.

[bubba hotep]

Could we end up with a below normal December? There are no signs of any big warmups in the models or teleconnections as the atmospheric background state has been reluctant to take on a true -ENSO look. Also, a lot of people seem to favor a backloaded winter, so maybe a "cold" winter for Texas?