Deep South Winter 2024-2025

[wxweenie4life]

Hey everyone! I had to get a new account because my old one (smw1981) was not allowing me to sign in. But of course I have been watching as a guest for the last few days until my new username was approved!

Here's to hoping this does pan out and we actually get some snow! I was a freshman in high school when we had the big snow in the 90s, and I still remember looking out the window (at school!) and seeing big flakes coming down, my mom picking me up, them cancelling school, etc. I am so hoping this is the time my own kiddos will get to experience that same thrill!

[3090]

Ah ok. Still feeling pretty good after today's runs!

Louisiana looking sweet! Points east are getting there.

[Ivanhater]

Better comparison of Euro ensemble mean from 12z to 00z.... WOW. Remember, Euro ensembles have the best skill level and only 4 days out


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[Ivanhater]

I have never seen the probabilities this high for the Gulf coast. This is insane!

[Steve]

12z the first one?

[Ivanhater]

12z the first one?

Yeah. Sorry it came out blurry.

1st 12z
2nd 00z

[Ivanhater]

18z Icon even more suppressed. Sometimes that model sniffs things out

[MississippiWx]

18z Icon even more suppressed. Sometimes that model sniffs things out

Yeah, until it’s unanimous with the more amplified look, I won’t feel comfortable. 12z Euro AI is a little more suppressed than it has been as well.

[Stormcenter]

And tomorrow or Sunday it will show a blizzard for the
deep south again. My point is a lot can and will
probably change either way before Tuesday.

18z Icon even more suppressed. Sometimes that model sniffs things out

Yeah, until it’s unanimous with the more amplified look, I won’t feel comfortable. 12z Euro AI is a little more suppressed than it has been as well.

[Jag95]

The earlier ICON I looked at showed the low forming in the gulf and taking a sharp dive into the Yucatan. Not impossible, but an outlier Looks suspect.

[Ivanhater]

Hard to go against the GFS, European, Canadian and most importantly, Euro ensembles showing a huge winter storm for the deep south and Gulf coast.

If that changes being 4 days out, it will be a HUGE model failure

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS running....

[Ivanhater]

The good news. GFS holds and huge precipitation.

Bad news ..back to crippling Ice storm

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[Stormcenter]

I expect these model runs to go back and forth
with the frozen precipitation type until game time so I’m
not concerned.

The good news. GFS holds and huge precipitation.

Bad news ..back to crippling Ice storm https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250117/00d6da5c9a8db8ed0f40bd0becb78977.jpg

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[BigB0882]

I expect these model runs to go back and forth
with the frozen precipitation type until game time so I’m
not concerned.

The good news. GFS holds and huge precipitation.

Bad news ..back to crippling Ice storm https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250117/00d6da5c9a8db8ed0f40bd0becb78977.jpg

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I feel like this is wobble watching but for winter weather. The ICON doesn’t concern me because the other more reliable models are holding.

What is the reason for the ice storm on the GFS? It seems like we have had so many runs in a row of all snow. Is the Low more north in the Gulf this run or is it just not seeing temps as cold? If the Low is more north, then something has to give between it and the Icon.

[Ivanhater]

New discussion from Mobile/Pensacola office....great explanation

Scenario 1 (the dry scenario): This scenario would be the `floor` of
the hazardous potential. The surface trough is too far south, or
does not form at all. Very dry air would remain in place, preventing
any precip from forming underneath it. At this point, this solution
is becoming less and less likely due to a vast majority of
deterministic and ensemble guidance now showing at least some sort
of QPF on Tuesday. Still do not want to rule this scenario out,
though, as a few ensemble members and one or two select
deterministic runs have still shown it, but it appears to be a
lowering possibility at the moment.

Scenario 2 (the all-snow scenario): I would still consider this
scenario to be `middle-of-the-road` in terms of hazardous
conditions, although impacts could range from a low-end snow event
to a high-end snow event. In this solution, the surface trough does
begin developing over the Gulf but does not fully develop into a low
until it passes the central part of the Florida peninsula and enters
the western Atlantic. Looking at modeled profiles, WAA will be
occurring around 700mb, but due to the quicker movement of the
synoptic features, it quickly cuts off by the early afternoon,
preventing a `warm nose` from developing aloft and keeping the
entire profile below freezing. This would support a snow-only event
across the area. Now with the dendritic growth zone being saturated
and surface temperatures being quite cold, some areas could see
higher-end amounts of snowfall which could lead to a rather
impactful event. In fact, ensembles paint a roughly 10-30 percent
chance that snow accumulations could exceed 2 inches in some spots.
Of course, we are still four days away, so these probabilities will
likely change over the next couple days.

Scenario 3 (the mixed precip-type scenario): This scenario would be
the `ceiling` of the hazardous potential. In this solution, the
surface trough does manage to evolve into a low prior to crossing
the northern part of the Florida peninsula. This solution is also a
bit slower with onset and exit of precip. Looking at modeled
profiles, the slower movement of synoptic features keeps the 700mb
WAA regime in place long enough to create a warm nose aloft (this
warm nose would be weaker and less evident the further north you
go). Some surface heating may also take place prior to the onset of
precip, which could bring surface temperatures a little above
freezing along coastal counties. Therefore, this scenario would
favor a rain to snow transition across the area, with snow in the
northern counties, rain offshore, and a zone of freezing rain/sleet
across our southern counties. Where exactly the bounds of this zone
sets up and where the heaviest accumulations would occur are unknown
at this time, but if this scenario does pan out, then an
accumulation of snow and ice would be expected. It should be noted
that some higher amounts of ice accumulation could become realized
which is why this solution would be considered the `ceiling`. It
should also be noted that guidance has been trending closer to this
solution over recent runs. 00z ensembles painted only around a 5-10%
chance of seeing freezing rain accumulation values greater than a
tenth of an inch. 12z ensembles have increased to around 15-25%
chance.

We will monitor these scenarios very closely over the coming days
The current forecast generally follows scenario 2, but with an added
mention of freezing rain and sleet over our coastal counties to
factor in the increasing possibility of scenario 3. We will likely
be making changes over the coming days as higher-res models begin to
come in range. /96

[Ivanhater]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

[BigB0882]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

Yes, and I believe models are not able to really account for that but again, someone please correct me if wrong.

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS Ensemble mean

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[Ralph's Weather]

Somebody more familiar with these type of events might be to tell me. If the precip is as heavy as shown, wouldn't that cause a wet bulb situation where it would cause more snow than freezing rain?

Only if that warm layer is dry. Also heavy precip falling through the warm layer can pull down more warm air. I do think that the GFS is over doing the warm air, but the stronger the Gulf low is the more warmth it will bring in at 850mb.