Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

^ I'm not a huge fan of predicting long term weather. I usually try to stay in touch with things within a week out unless it's looking for pattern changes. Everything you said may very well turn out true, but my certainty for the statement of not being the last of winter this year was for calendar year of 2010 . The way I see it, Christmas will be the first in a series of southern stream storms each in their own rights.

[northjaxpro]

^ I'm not a huge fan of predicting long term weather. I usually try to stay in touch with things within a week out unless it's looking for pattern changes. Everything you said may very well turn out true, but my certainty for the statement of not being the last of winter this year was for calendar year of 2010 . The way I see it, Christmas will be the first in a series of southern stream storms each in their own rights.

I respect your views. I was pointing out that at least for the next 10-14 days, it looks as though the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation will continue. But you do make a good point in that the Southern stream jet may be starting to get active. This major storm which is forecast to get organized this weekend is the first significant system derived from the southern branch of the jet stream this winter season. One thing for certain is that it has been an interesting Fall/early Winter to this point with the coldest December we have had in many areas of the Eastern CONUS in many years.

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS is playing catchup ..finally showing a low developing in the Gulf

[Ivanhater]

00z GFS ensemble

[Ivanhater]

00z Euro bombing Gulf low

[Ivanhater]

Ummm WOW!

[Ivanhater]

Just confirmed..00z Euro showing up to 2 inches of backlash snow in NW Florida!! Then buries the South and the eastern seaboard. '93 Super storm all over again on this run...I'm speechless!

[timNms]

Just confirmed..00z Euro showing up to 2 inches of backlash snow in NW Florida!! Then buries the South and the eastern seaboard. '93 Super storm all over again on this run...I'm speechless!

Ok, if that verifies, what does that mean for South Mississippi around and near the Hattiesburg area?

[Ntxw]

Just confirmed..00z Euro showing up to 2 inches of backlash snow in NW Florida!! Then buries the South and the eastern seaboard. '93 Super storm all over again on this run...I'm speechless!

I am astonished at how persistent the EURO has been. If things panned out this way we'd have snow from Florida up to Maine which is amazing by any stretch. The Carolinas are the bullseye on the EC. I still caution getting too excited yet as perfect storms like this requires little to no error and we are still beyond 100 hours of the event and needs more support from the other models to be a lock. I hope you guys get that white Christmas! It's been some time for the southeast.

[Ntxw]

Just confirmed..00z Euro showing up to 2 inches of backlash snow in NW Florida!! Then buries the South and the eastern seaboard. '93 Super storm all over again on this run...I'm speechless!

Ok, if that verifies, what does that mean for South Mississippi around and near the Hattiesburg area?

Miss seems to be too far away from the time of phasing and bombing. Prior to that it's too warm for anything significant as of now.

[northjaxpro]

WOW!!! WOW!!!!

The Euro absolutely bombs the Low in the GOM and later intensifies this system to be an absolute monster of a storm as it treks up the East Coast. I never imagined that we would see anything like the historic March 1993 Superstorm, but folks should the Euro verify, we could be watching another rare historic mega winter storm for the ages this upcoming Christmas weekend.

I can not express more how surreal this potential event would be for people across the Deep South and the entire East Coast. There could be accumulating snowfall from Southern Georgia to Maine, with potential blizzard conditions from the NC Piedmont all the way up the Eastern seaboard.

This is what the Euro is depicting and it has been consistent which each run. The GFS, which had been the outlier this week with this system is now finally falling in line and playing catch up as it is now developing the Low to spin up along the Gulf Coast.

The ECMWF has been the best performing model so far this Fall and early winter season. It has been on top of this developing event for the past several days and I think it will come close to verifying. Just an incredible and dynamic winter storm in the making for the entire East Coast. People in many areas who wanted a white Christmas, well you know the saying: BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR!

LOL

This weekend is really going to be fun and intriguing watching all this unfold.

[Lane]

I wish for a white Christmas, with lots and lots of snow!!

[Brent]

*faints*

This is from Birmingham!

HAVE DECIDED TO GO FULL FLEDGED WITH THE EURO THIS MORNING AS THE
CONSISTENCY THAT WE LOOK FOR HAS NOW CONTINUED FOR NOW 54 HOURS.
THAT COMBINED WITH THE GFS TRENDS...HAS ALLOWED FOR A LOT MORE IN
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE HISTORIC IF THERE
IS ANY ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS IT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TIME FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY. NUMEROUS
TRACE EVENTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED...BUT NO EVENTS HAVE HAD MORE THAN A
TRACE. STILL REALLY TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE MODELS STILL PROVIDE SOME ISSUES IN REGARDS TO WHERE AND
HOW MUCH WILL THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. IF THE EURO PANS OUT THE
HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH...POSSIBLY EVEN SOUTH OF THE
US 80/I-85 CORRIDOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE 00Z GFS BRINGS IN
THE HEAVIEST QPF ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-59 CORRIDOR...WITH THE 06Z
GFS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. STILL QUITE A WAYS OUT TO GET INTO THESE
SPECIFICS.

OVERALL LOOK FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN SEE A POSSIBLE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE ARRIVAL OF SANTA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE SNOW
WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GOING TO UP
MUCH AT ALL ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE RAIN/SNOW IS FLYING OUT
THERE. RIGHT NOW LOOK FOR THE CHANGE-OVER TO SNOW TO OCCUR SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY NOON AND THEN SOUTH OF I-85 LATER AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. AGAIN THIS IS DEFINITELY SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...OR EVEN HOURS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLD AND POSSIBLY EVEN
APPROACH HARD FREEZE CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN. MADE A FEW MODIFICATIONS
FROM MODELS FOR SUNDAY AND WENT COOLER FOR THE AREA. THIS MAY NOT BE
LOW ENOUGH IF THERE IS ANY SNOW COVER FROM THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY.

Christmas Day...Colder. Chance of rain or snow in the morning... Then snow likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.

[Tstormwatcher]

I wonder what this means for eastern NC?

[Ivanhater]

WOW. Even the NWS Mobile/Pensacola is biting!

...A RARE WINTRY WEATHER PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR
GULF COAST LATE CHRISTMAS DAY...

A WARM FRONT LOOKS TO HUG THE COAST WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
EASTWARD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A TIGHT GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURE
WILL EXIST WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR. THE LOW
IS PROGGED TO PULL COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND MOISTURE
FLOWING ATOP THE COLDER DOME MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE RAIN OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY SAT. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BE AN ASSESSMENT OF CRITICAL WINTER WEATHER THICKNESSES AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW THERMAL PROFILES JUST OFF THE SURFACE
GOING BLO ZERO CELSIUS THERE BY EVENING. NEAR THE WARM FRONT...DAYTIME
HIGHS LOOK TO OCCUR EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH A COLD RAIN AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO THE AFTN. AFTER SUNSET SAT...THE FORECAST
THERMAL PROFILES LOOK TO SUPPORT A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WEST OF THE DEPARTING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. STILL TOO EARLY
TO OFFER SPECIFICS ON ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AS ALL OF THIS IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW. STAY TUNED.

[northjaxpro]

That is an excellent point made there by the met in that Birmingham AFD regarding the potential snowpack that may happen in the wake of this potential storm by the end of Christmas weekend. This could lead to much colder temps than being currently depicted by the models over the Deep South and the Florida peninsula for early next week.

Everything is dependent on the track and intensity of this storm. If this "bombs" and tracks up the immediate East Coast, there is a possibity of seeing very significant snowfall totals across the Deep South, especially the interior midland areas of South Carolina, on up to the Foothills and Piedmont of North Carolina as well.

The next 36-48 hours hopefully the model runs should give us a better indication on the potential track. The dynamics look to be very impressive that cyclogenesis looks to be very formidable when the storm emerges somewhere likely just off the SE US Coast during the day on Sunday.

Lots of variables and questions remain, but for sure an interesting next 5-7 days we will have monitoring this upcoming event.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian has snow spreading along the Gulf coast

[Cristina]

Hi,
Can you tell me what this means for GA? I live in Canton, about 40 miles north of Atlanta. I would appreciate any input! Thanks!

[northjaxpro]

Hi,
Can you tell me what this means for GA? I live in Canton, about 40 miles north of Atlanta. I would appreciate any input! Thanks!

It all depends on the track of the storm. If the Euro verifies with the cold air advection rapidly pulling in behind the storm moving on a more southerly track, then the chances of accumulating snowfall across Northern GA is enhanced significantly mainly during the afternoon and evening on Saturday as it appears for now. But, remember, things can change, so just stay tuned and monitor the latest from here or the NWS office up in the Atlanta area on the pending situation.

[Cristina]

Hi,
Can you tell me what this means for GA? I live in Canton, about 40 miles north of Atlanta. I would appreciate any input! Thanks!

It all depends on the track of the storm. If the Euro verifies with the cold air advection rapidly pulling in behind the storm moving in a more southerly track, then the chances of accumulating snowfall across Northern GA is enhanced significantly mainly during the afternoon and evening on Saturday as it appears for now. But, remember, things can change, so just stay tuned and monitor the latest from here or the NWS office up in the Atlanta area on the pending situation.

Thank you so much. I appreciate it