Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[westmc9th]

I know its early but could someone make a guesstimate of how much conservatively McDowell County, NC will get, and then maybe on the best case scenario the largest amount we can get. Thanks in advance

[bella_may]

Do you know when the new euro models come out?

[Ntxw]

I know its early but could someone make a guesstimate of how much conservatively McDowell County, NC will get, and then maybe on the best case scenario the largest amount we can get. Thanks in advance

It's impossible to know for sure as there are two extreme possibilities. Best case scenario a foot or more widespread in NC with the low hugging the coast, worst case scenario flurries if it's too far out to sea. Anything in between is fair play. My early guess (that's all it is) for your area in western NC is 3-6. The bullseye seems to be to your east in coastal areas.

And for Bella the 0z Euro comes out around 1:55 am eastern time on their free site. You can get frames about 30 mins earlier from the PSU ewall site.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[bella_may]

Could u post the links to those websites? I can't find them

[Horstman]

I'm a snow goose and have been driven by the hype of the title of this thread. Aside from Birmingham and maybe Atlanta, there's nothing particularly historic about what's coming.

Alot of us in the NE corridor are probably too optimistic about a big snow for the major cities. Myself included.

Still, the whole ball of wax for I95 NE lies in the Euro. I suspect we'll know (for all intents and purposes) whether it will hit Mid Atlantic - north within the next two runs. Either the NAM will resolve to the Euro, or the Euro will gas out. The contradiction won't last much longer.

I do have my fingers crossed and may hang around to hear what you guys say when the 0z Euro hits.

[Ivanhater]

I see a lot of guests on tonight. Feel welcome to register and add to the discussion or ask questions

[Ntxw]

Could u post the links to those websites? I can't find them

Here you go! The first is the Euro site. Click on the 'free access' link to the bottom left.

This one is the simplest to use imo if you're not weather savvy
http://www.ecmwf.int/

Also left side, look for ECMWF on the PSU ewall. Click the run you wish to see
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

Allan Huffman has a great model page but can be a bit overwhelming.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html

[bella_may]

Thanks!

[DEEDEE911]

so there probably will be no snow for south west mississippi i would love for my kids to see some snow on christmas even if it is flurries

[Ntxw]

so there probably will be no snow for south west mississippi i would love for my kids to see some snow on christmas even if it is flurries

Chances there aren't that great but flurries are not impossible. The best dynamics seem to be after the low bombs off the southeast coast wringing moisture back with an impressive comma head. From the EC Florida panhandle north and east has the best shot.

I'm not allowed to post accuwx ecmwf images, but it has an area of accumulating snow from roughly Alabama/Fl border and virtually all of Georgia and Carolinas. >.5 qpf from eastern GA, to Raleigh approaching more than an inch of liquid equivalent.

[Wurbus]

Hi, I've watched tropics on here for awhile and I love coming on here and getting to look at some of the models. I'm in eastern TN and I remember the 93 Superstorm, and we had like 20 inches of snow here and the city shut down for a week. I've heard people reference that storm with this one. Just wandering what you guys think the chance of us getting a lot of snow would be in east TN. Looking at the models, it seems like most of precipitation is going to be to our south and east if I'm not mistaken. Thanks!

[bella_may]

What about for SOUTHEAST mississippi?

[sherry]

I am in Statesville NC. Our mets out of Charlotte are only saying 1-2 inches. Then I have been trying to figure out the Euro runs and it seems we will have more than that. I am very confused on the water to snow total thing. I wish that the mets would give us a slight more heads up so I know if I need to make sure I have stuff in case we lose power. In 93 the snow caused the roof at my dad's company to collapse plus we were stuck for a week.

[PTPatrick]

Latest 0z NAM is coming out...not showing much in the way of wrap around moisture over the cold air at least not in south Mississippi or SW alabama. Pensacola area looks to miss out on this run...I would say best snow chances on this run are north east of Crestview area and it would mainly be light snow before ending. South cetnral and southeast AL look to get a quick change on the back end..down to around the FL state line. North and east of MOntgomery and east of Birmingham looks like they could get a couple inches on this run. Same around Atlanta. Tennessee appears to have statewide flurries on Sunday morning. Good band of heavier snow around Southeastern NC by Sunday morning. This run stops there....all and all nothing epic other than the fact that it would be snow on Christmas. 3-6 inches will def slow down Western SC and NE Georgia. NC has had worse I think, although the worst of this is appearing to be southeast which is probably the least snow prepared area. Also...looks like NAM isnt buying the east coast rider path...but to be fair it doesnt go quite that far out.

LETS hope that the 0z ECMWF bombs earlier in the gulf. Would love to see some flurries on the back side here in southeast MS. Of course I am visiting from Denver so not exactly new to me, but then we havent had much more than flurries this year.

[Ivanhater]

Accuweather forecast..Generally 1 inch or less for South Mississippi, South Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. However, the important thing is they are projecting snow far south. Seems like a good idea. I have never seen a bullish forecast of snow for the Gulf coast before a storm develops.

[Ivanhater]

BMX pulled the trigger.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
843 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-231200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
843 PM CST WED DEC 22 2010

...SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SNOW TO
MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
EVENING. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE SYSTEM...THE EXPECTED
CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND STEADILY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO SUNSET.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST INFORMATION...MANY AREAS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ON
CHRISTMAS DAY. HOWEVER...MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS
TO THIS FORECAST...AND CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS...TIMING AND PLACEMENT...AND
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING QUESTIONS.
THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL DIRECTLY
AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AS NEW INFORMATION
IS INTRODUCED...THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AND SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
UPDATED.

[PTPatrick]

would say that is certainly pretty bullish from ACCUWX...I am not buying into yet...would like to see some more agreement.

PS...I was stranded near Raleigh in the huge storm that struck NC in January of 2000. 24 inches of snow there...it was rediculous how ill prepared they are for anything of that magitude.

[RL3AO]

3-6 over Southern Alabama would be crazy.

Could be a huge storm for the NE if it takes the right track.

[Snowluvr]

I hope we can get some snow here in extreme southeast Ms. I got a feeling the low will actually be a little further west than predicted.

[bella_may]

Hey I'm from lucedale too!! Lol