Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ralph's Weather]

For those willing to keep hoping:
As always the GEM gives the most hope for snow on Sat. It has the shortwave a bit stronger than the other models thus generating more cold and precip. The NAM is not far off with decent QPF but shortwave is a bit weaker so not as cold. GFS is too weak to generate much precip and lacks enough cold.

[Ntxw]

It would be nice if we could get some more rain. It just doesn't look good for any significant rainfall over the next 7 days. Just a half an inch to an inch area wide is all I ask for. A good reminder that each Niño is different.

Things just moving to fast, a bunch of relatively small systems

Yep, we really need the flow pattern to slow down so that storm systems can dig into Mexico before moving across the state. The 12z Euro shows this happening late next week with heavy rainfall likely if it verifies.

The pattern of the past several months has been heavy rainfall events towards the end of the month. California is feeling the brunt of it now, with a more bowling ball type system to end January the rainfall will come as the +PNA relaxes and we revert back to SW trof

[Brent]

Things just moving to fast, a bunch of relatively small systems

Yep, we really need the flow pattern to slow down so that storm systems can dig into Mexico before moving across the state. The 12z Euro shows this happening late next week with heavy rainfall likely if it verifies.

The pattern of the past several months has been heavy rainfall events towards the end of the month. California is feeling the brunt of it now, with a more bowling ball type system to end January the rainfall will come as the +PNA relaxes and we revert back to SW trof

October November December all had a widespread heavy rain the final week or so of the month, something to think about...

the CPC maps 8-14 day are warm but also wet...

[srainhoutx]

While 50's and 60's may be 'warm' for some, those fast moving shortwave troughs can deliver a punch or two. I count at least 4 in 7-8 days crossing the Region. The ECMWF-EPS as well as the Super Ensembles suggest an active and unsettled pattern. Next Thursday-Friday could be worth monitoring, both in the warm and cold sectors.

[Brent]

While 50's and 60's may be 'warm' for some, those fast moving shortwave troughs can deliver a punch or two. I count at least 4 in 7-8 days crossing the Region. The ECMWF-EPS as well as the Super Ensembles suggest an active and unsettled pattern. Next Thursday-Friday could be worth monitoring, both in the warm and cold sectors.

Just noticed the GFS has a huge storm around 300 hours that has snow on the backside and gets close to DFW(major rain event otherwise)... definitely not gonna be THAT warm.

[somethingfunny]

On this day three years ago I was awakened at like 4am by an explosively loud "thundergraupelstorm". It was the only time I can recall seeing snow (or snow-ish) here during the month of January. This weekend might surprise us like we were all surprised three years ago, but I suggest we just wait until February guys, that's when the blockbusters always happen.

[Brent]

I just noticed, am I going crazy or did I have 30k posts the other day and now I have 29,905? LOL

and to keep this on topic... I'm not overly impressed with this weekend but who knows, if anything is going to surprise imo it's this. I've been watching the models struggle with this pattern for weeks and they still are.

[hriverajr]

While 50's and 6 0's may be 'warm' for some, those fast moving shortwave troughs can deliver a punch or two. I count at least 4 in 7-8 days crossing the Region. The ECMWF-EPS as well as the Super Ensembles suggest an active and unsettled pattern. Next Thursday-Friday could be worth monitoring, both in the warm and cold sectors.

Very rarely for Western parts of the state..... 50s and 60s I would consider fairly mild.

[Portastorm]

The lack of high latitude blocking is killing us this "winter." Cold blasts progressive and angled towards the Great Lakes and East Coast all month. Considering how warm December was and outside of the first 10 days in January, we're going to end up anomalously warm for Dec-Jan.

I wouldn't mind some more rain, El Niño.

[wxman57]

06Z GFS Says "no significant weather for Texas (rain or snow) through January". Might see some 70s next week, though. Time to pump up my bike tires...

[Ntxw]

06Z GFS Says "no significant weather for Texas (rain or snow) through January". Might see some 70s next week, though. Time to pump up my bike tires...

Euro says plenty of rain, how's that for a 180

[Ntxw]

The lack of high latitude blocking is killing us this "winter." Cold blasts progressive and angled towards the Great Lakes and East Coast all month. Considering how warm December was and outside of the first 10 days in January, we're going to end up anomalously warm for Dec-Jan.

I wouldn't mind some more rain, El Niño.

There's been plenty of blocking, just the Pacific has not cooperated. Areas to the N and NE (where the blasts are) is actually warmer than avg than we are here. Teens and 20s is colder for us but for them its just a little below normal.

Its not so much the lack of blocking, its the lack of anomalous cold air. And really this period just solidified my discontent with +PNA' and -NAO. It just benefits the east and lakes. About as reliable as those drunkin PWC mets! Give me a -PNA bowling ball and -EPO

[wxman57]

06Z GFS Says "no significant weather for Texas (rain or snow) through January". Might see some 70s next week, though. Time to pump up my bike tires...

Euro says plenty of rain, how's that for a 180

Yeah, the Euro is closer to the 00Z GFS. A few fast-moving southern stream storms but not enough cold air for anything but rain.

[Jarodm12]

Ok why are we not talking about Saturday with various models still showing snow potential and some 1 - 3 inches? I'm not sure why everyone has given up hope..

[DonWrk]

I'm praying we get one of the storms where the winter thread goes crazy and every time you come back to check on updates you have to go through a few pages of new post. Nothing better!

[CaptinCrunch]

This Mornings NWS AFD From FTW

A COUPLE OF THINGS WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
18 HOURS...THE 14/21Z...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE 15/03Z... SREF
PLUMES FOR GAINESVILLE SHOWED ABOUT 3 OR 4 MEMBERS WHICH HAD 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
THESE SREF MEMBERS WERE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH 850MB AND GENERALLY LACK SUPPORT
FROM ANY OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. WITH THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIALLY
COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW AND THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE
UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH...THINK THIS SCENARIO IS
FAIRLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER ISSUE CONCERNS THE
SLIGHTLY CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY THE
TTU WRF AND THE LATEST 4KM NAM. IF INITIAL PRECIPITATION THAT
FALLS IS HEAVY...RAPID WET BULB COOLING OF THE LOWEST 1000FT OF
ATMOSPHERE COULD OCCUR YIELDING A COLDER PROFILE THAN CURRENTLY
DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...THERE
WILL STILL BE A LACK OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE TO
MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING AT ANY TIME DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL STILL
CONTINUE WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
GRASSY SURFACES POSSIBLE ALONG THE RED RIVER THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY
SATURDAY. NO ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS TRAVEL SHOULD
NOT BE IMPACTED. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.

THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP THEN ANOTHER FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
HAVE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND NOW APPEARS THAT IT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BACK INTO THE 40S FOR
HIGHS ON MONDAY.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFERING SUBSTANTIALLY
DIFFERENT OUTPUT FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THE
GFS SHOWS A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DOMINATED BY
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THIS SCENARIO IS MOSTLY DRY FOR NORTH TEXAS.
THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
WESTERN U.S. MID WEEK AND DIGS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY. WITH ENSEMBLE SPREAD QUITE HIGH IN BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR
SCENARIO IS QUITE LOW. NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALSO NOTES
THAT MODEL DETERMINISTIC SKILL DROPS SHARPLY BEYOND DAY 4 WITH
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID...WILL HAVE SOME 20-30
POPS BROADBRUSHED IN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY JUST TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND TYPE IS QUITE UNCLEAR AT THIS
TIME

Just goes to show you, that even the Pro's haven't a clue about the weather beyond 4 days.

[EnnisTx]

Ok why are we not talking about Saturday with various models still showing snow potential and some 1 - 3 inches? I'm not sure why everyone has given up hope..

I hear you! I want some snow Da$% it!!

[wxman57]

Ok why are we not talking about Saturday with various models still showing snow potential and some 1 - 3 inches? I'm not sure why everyone has given up hope..

There won't likely be any 1-3" in NE TX, perhaps in western Oklahoma and the northern TX Panhandle. The D-FW area could see a few flakes as the precip ends, but those flakes will quickly melt as they hit the ground.

[hriverajr]

The lack of high latitude blocking is killing us this "winter." Cold blasts progressive and angled towards the Great Lakes and East Coast all month. Considering how warm December was and outside of the first 10 days in January, we're going to end up anomalously warm for Dec-Jan.

I wouldn't mind some more rain, El Niño.

There's been plenty of blocking, just the Pacific has not cooperated. Areas to the N and NE (where the blasts are) is actually warmer than avg than we are here. Teens and 20s is colder for us but for them its just a little below normal.

Its not so much the lack of blocking, its the lack of anomalous cold air. And really this period just solidified my discontent with +PNA' and -NAO. It just benefits the east and lakes. About as reliable as those drunkin PWC mets! Give me a -PNA bowling ball and -EPO

-NAO does not do much for us in Texas... Actually a bit of east coast High Pressure is probably good...

[Portastorm]

The lack of high latitude blocking is killing us this "winter." Cold blasts progressive and angled towards the Great Lakes and East Coast all month. Considering how warm December was and outside of the first 10 days in January, we're going to end up anomalously warm for Dec-Jan.

I wouldn't mind some more rain, El Niño.

There's been plenty of blocking, just the Pacific has not cooperated. Areas to the N and NE (where the blasts are) is actually warmer than avg than we are here. Teens and 20s is colder for us but for them its just a little below normal.

Its not so much the lack of blocking, its the lack of anomalous cold air. And really this period just solidified my discontent with +PNA' and -NAO. It just benefits the east and lakes. About as reliable as those drunkin PWC mets! Give me a -PNA bowling ball and -EPO

I'm not sure I buy this ... if we had blocking in the North Atlantic, the deep and cold troughs which have impacted areas to our E/NE wouldn't be so progressive. Essentially the fast flow would slow down as I understood it. Maybe I'm wrong. That has happened more than once.

I don't argue the lack of anomalous cold air. That definitely has been true more than not. Here's the question though: how can the AO be so incredibly negative yet we lack that cold air in this part of the globe? One would think that even at the high latitudes of North America that they would be suffering through an incredibly tough winter. I don't think they are. It doesn't add up.