Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The 18z GFS shifted the trough a little south, but it becomes negative tilt faster.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
FW forecasting low of 9F for DFW airport. Quite noteworthy, we might go single digits in less than two years after going 25 years blanked.
Thursday: Partly sunny, with a high near 40. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north northwest 20 to 25 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 9. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Friday: Sunny and cold, with a high near 23.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 9. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Friday: Sunny and cold, with a high near 23.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
GFS is likely too warm. Euro, ICON, and CMC are all cooler. NAM and HRRR should help with the specifics once they come into range.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Now lower than -50°F in the Yukon Territory, this cold is stronger than expected as I feared.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Now lower than -50°F in the Yukon Territory, this cold is stronger than expected as I feared.
I’ve seen -70 in that area before.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Now lower than -50°F in the Yukon Territory, this cold is stronger than expected as I feared.
I’ve seen -70 in that area before.
Recently? That is a lot colder than I expected if it happened recently!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I have a question. The latest GFS shows a vort right over south Louisiana on Christmas Day, yet all the precipitation is in the gulf. This feature has become more prominent in recent runs. Can someone explain. Is the the air just too dry to squeeze out any moisture? Is the tilt wrong? Thanks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Now lower than -50°F in the Yukon Territory, this cold is stronger than expected as I feared.
I’ve seen -70 in that area before.
Recently? That is a lot colder than I expected if it happened recently!
Can’t quite remember when but I wanna say it was Feb 21. -50’s in that area aren’t out of the ordinary I can tell you that much. Happens there pretty much every year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
If anyone’s interested the coldest temperature ever recorded in the Yukon occurred Feb 3rd, 1947 in Snag. It was -81°F. I wonder what happened that year. Haven’t heard much about 47’ being cold.
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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:I have a question. The latest GFS shows a vort right over south Louisiana on Christmas Day, yet all the precipitation is in the gulf. This feature has become more prominent in recent runs. Can someone explain. Is the the air just too dry to squeeze out any moisture? Is the tilt wrong? Thanks.
That is correct. The cold air is too deep and the front is too far offshore. No moisture would be available on the coast.
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
The 18z Euro has trended west, someone on a different forum confirmed that with the 18z EPS as well.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:The 18z Euro has trended west, someone on a different forum confirmed that with the 18z EPS as well.
What we really want to see is the ridging off the Baja to go away lol or at least back off a couple hundred miles.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:Lol! Why do you say that?
I just assumed you forgot about it lol it’s unlike you to not be on there.
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txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:The 18z Euro has trended west, someone on a different forum confirmed that with the 18z EPS as well.
Problem for central Oklahoma (if you want accumulating snowfall) would be the Euro. GFS digs wave much further south before it lifts. Euro cuts it across Kansas and so most of the snow would stay further north/NE. One of these is wrong obviously but it's probably somewhere in between.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Sun Dec 18, 2022 8:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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cycloneye
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
txtwister78 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:The 18z Euro has trended west, someone on a different forum confirmed that with the 18z EPS as well.
Problem for central Oklahoma (if you want accumulating snowfall) would be the Euro. GFS digs wave much further south before it lifts. Euro cuts it across Kansas and so most of the snow would stay further north/NE. One of these is wrong obviously but it's probably somewhere in between.
The Euro is likely very conservative with troughs and ridges, one of the runs has to cave to the other.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 9290
- Age: 21
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
This is funny, has anyone ever seen a 1040 mb LP in the Arctic Ocean? 
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/90fwbg-3.gif
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/90fwbg-3.gif
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
Help support Storm2K!
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starsfan65
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Very InterestingNtxw wrote:Front is looking sharper and sharper on Thursday. Dallas may be in the 50s while Fort Worth is sub 30F on the other side.
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