Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[Portastorm]

Hmmm ... the 12z GFS now cuts off next week's upper low to our west but continues the late cycle trend of a deep, cold trough over the western US.

Maybe it's just far-sighted and we can have more confidence in that early February turn to winter!

Yeah, that must be it - the GFS doesn't know what's going to happen 5-6 days from now but has the 15-16 day forecast pegged.

I openly acknowledge that it makes no meteorological sense but when do I ever exhibit said sense?!

All kidding aside, it continues to be hard to have much confidence in the GFS when it keeps messing around with next week's storm. Guess the mantra needs to be "wait until 240 hours out" so we can compare it to the Euro and Canadian.

[Ntxw]

Check out the new MJO forecast . That is further sign the epac ridge will be legit. I'm sorry wxman but the signs are pointing at sending your warmth to the tropics! For now. I sense something is on the move

[Big O]

Check out the new MJO forecast . That is further sign the epac ridge will be legit. I'm sorry wxman but the signs are pointing at sending your warmth to the tropics! For now. I sense something is on the move

Pic, please?

If unable to do so, what phases is it projected to enter and at what amplitude?

Is the MJO forecast based on GFS ensembles or European, etc.?

[MississippiWx]

Check out the new MJO forecast . That is further sign the epac ridge will be legit. I'm sorry wxman but the signs are pointing at sending your warmth to the tropics! For now. I sense something is on the move

Lol. You guys crack me up. Since the Deep South Winter Weather thread has been dead all season, I lurk on the Texas one. Must be nice to be wxman57 this winter.

[Tireman4]

Yeah, that must be it - the GFS doesn't know what's going to happen 5-6 days from now but has the 15-16 day forecast pegged.


The GFS just needs contacts Wxman, that is all.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

1044 MB High in the E Pac? Wow.

Ive been racking my brain on the atmosphere lately, trying to figure out what is making this high stay parked off the West coast this season. What is the mechanism for this and why? This is an example of la nina i understand, also with its clockwise motion around the high, it will increase upwelling in the equatorial region of the E Pac (La nina) but where does it start? MJO? /headsabouttoexplode

[cycloneye]

Speaking of La Nina,she is still very well alive with no true signs of going away anytime soon by seeing what is going on in the subsurface waters.

[Ntxw]

1044 MB High in the E Pac? Wow.

Ive been racking my brain on the atmosphere lately, trying to figure out what is making this high stay parked off the West coast this season. What is the mechanism for this and why? This is an example of la nina i understand, also with its clockwise motion around the high, it will increase upwelling in the equatorial region of the E Pac (La nina) but where does it start? MJO? /headsabouttoexplode

From what I know one of the biggest influences of pumping up that high is via an active MJO (7-8-1 range). Tropical forcing sends deep low pressures to the Aleutians which in turn pumps ridges ahead of it (amplifying them). Also I think the high is always there in winter but where it is, can be influenced by El nino/La Nina.

Everyone is picking on the GFS for not being right but in this case we are not looking at specifics. It has trended nonstop for 3 days now with an EPAC ridge. The ensembles both GFS and Euro support as well as the Canadian. What really got me into buying is lately the MJO forecast has been changing for the better, no good MJO = no good ridge but the trend has been giving credence over the days. So far this season the high hasn't gotten help from the MJO so it hasn't been able to tug itself into Alaska, yielding to the Alaskan Low. You don't look at specifics long range, but you can look at the 500mb and see how models are trending. And this is why Portastorm has been worked up!



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To add the MJO forecasting has been rough this year, so it doesn't mean the forecast will verify, just looking at the trends. At least it is leaving the center circle of death (weak) and finally doing something.

[Big O]

12z GFS Ensemble Mean are 384h sure is appetizing to cold-weather lovers; McFarland Signature anyone:

[wxman57]

That MJO 15-day forecast is produced by the same GFS that can't figure out what's going to happen next week.

[Ntxw]

That MJO 15-day forecast is produced by the same GFS that can't figure out what's going to happen next week.

Here is the Ecmwf and ensembles forecast. Also it is actually the GEFS not the GFS forecast.



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And for fun the Ukmet



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[hriverajr]

GFS may not be too reliable at the moment.. but at least its not showing unending warmth and zonal flow anymore.

[wxman57]

GFS may not be too reliable at the moment.. but at least its not showing unending warmth and zonal flow anymore.

Using logic, if the GFS isn't reliable now and it's not forecasting warmth and zonal flow, wouldn't that mean continued warmth and zonal flow are more likely than any extreme cold?

Meanwhile, I plan to take maximum advantage of the next 3 days of warm weather out on the bike trails. You never know when winter might make an appearance...

[hriverajr]

LOL.. I think the end is nigh... enjoy the three day weekend.

The GFS is having big problems with any southern stream systems that is true, but the gist of it is things are a changing.

[wxman57]

LOL.. I think the end is nigh... enjoy the three day weekend.

The GFS is having big problems with any southern stream systems that is true, but the gist of it is things are a changing.

Yes, any change isn't good when you're enjoying the current warm pattern.

[Tireman4]

Just once. Just once, I would love to hear Wxman say this

" Man this looks like a major snow event. ( I did hear him say last year before the February cold snap, " This one is gonna hurt") Houston is going to get piled on". That, of course, will never happen. Sigh.

[Portastorm]

Just once. Just once, I would love to hear Wxman say this

" Man this looks like a major snow event. ( I did hear him say last year before the February cold snap, " This one is gonna hurt") Houston is going to get piled on". That, of course, will never happen. Sigh.

Oh, he'll do it. He will post something about 3 inches of snow and then say "oh wait, I had the maps upside down."

[HockeyTx82]

For those of you who can't wait for cold and snow perhaps this article might help a little bit. Well actually it might make you want it more. Enjoy!

http://gadgetbox.msnbc.msn.com/_news/20 ... snow-forts

Porta, one of them would be perfect for you, you could store all the vodka you want.

[Tireman4]

Just once. Just once, I would love to hear Wxman say this

" Man this looks like a major snow event. ( I did hear him say last year before the February cold snap, " This one is gonna hurt") Houston is going to get piled on". That, of course, will never happen. Sigh.

Oh, he'll do it. He will post something about 3 inches of snow and then say "oh wait, I had the maps upside down."

Gosh darned he is a killjoy. Correct most of the time, but heck he just kills dreams of snow....LOL

[wxman57]

The truth often hurts...

As much as I'd like winter to be over, I expect it'll return with some quite cold air and more snow for Texas in February (west and north TX, at least).

Hang on, had my long-range map upside-down again...