Texas Winter 2019-2020

[rwfromkansas]

Unfortunately, 9 times out of 10 DFW is in the battle zone, so it's unusual to have a shot of mostly frozen precip here...usually there will be a mix first it seems. I just hope late trends turn out well. It can happen, especially if it digs further south than expected.

We will see. I would be happy with even a half inch, as that's more than I have gotten in other stuff in years. I want more, but beggars can't be choosers.

[Jarodm12]

06z TX Tech WRF shows convective elements movng through DFW Wednesday with temps below freezing. Using the model derived soundings looks like it could be heavy sleet transitioning to snow, it would be close.

Man that wrf Texas tech model is what we want to see for sure

[Quixotic]

Looks like the wind has shifted in Amarillo. The OK panhandle is reporting winds up to 39 mph. Maybe a sooner than expected arrival?

[orangeblood]

06z TX Tech WRF shows convective elements movng through DFW Wednesday with temps below freezing. Using the model derived soundings looks like it could be heavy sleet transitioning to snow, it would be close.

Man that wrf Texas tech model is what we want to see for sure

Yep, that model is what the GFS was showing several runs back....heavy convective sleet taking direct aim at the metroplex

[Jarodm12]

Double

[Jarodm12]

Man that wrf Texas tech model is what we want to see for sure

Yep, that model is what the GFS was showing several runs back....heavy convective sleet taking direct aim at the metroplex

Take look at the wrf arw on tropical tidbits at 48 hours, if that verified lol

[gboudx]

Looks like the wind has shifted in Amarillo. The OK panhandle is reporting winds up to 39 mph. Maybe a sooner than expected arrival?

The Amarillo NWS AFD says this:

For Monday and Monday evening, main forecast issue is the timing of
the cold front as it continues southward. Most guidance has this
feature working into the Oklahoma Panhandle by 18z Monday afternoon,
nearly stalling in the afternoon as downsloping westerly winds
continue across the southern TX Panhandle, and finally pushing
through by Monday night.

18z Monday would be 1pm Central. As you look up to Dalhart and into the Ok panhandle, the temps are near or below freezing. So considering this, it does look early.

[Theepicman116]

What's the likelihood of this system trending southeastward just enough that hits Stephenville? Asking for my dorm roommate who wants classes to be canceled....


Looks like the WRF-ARW model answers that question. Kind of

[starsfan65]

Looks like the wind has shifted in Amarillo. The OK panhandle is reporting winds up to 39 mph. Maybe a sooner than expected arrival?

The Amarillo NWS AFD says this:

For Monday and Monday evening, main forecast issue is the timing of
the cold front as it continues southward. Most guidance has this
feature working into the Oklahoma Panhandle by 18z Monday afternoon,
nearly stalling in the afternoon as downsloping westerly winds
continue across the southern TX Panhandle, and finally pushing
through by Monday night.

18z Monday would be 1pm Central. As you look up to Dalhart and into the Ok panhandle, the temps are near or below freezing. So considering this, it does look early.

18z is noon central.

[gboudx]

Looks like the wind has shifted in Amarillo. The OK panhandle is reporting winds up to 39 mph. Maybe a sooner than expected arrival?

The Amarillo NWS AFD says this:

For Monday and Monday evening, main forecast issue is the timing of
the cold front as it continues southward. Most guidance has this
feature working into the Oklahoma Panhandle by 18z Monday afternoon,
nearly stalling in the afternoon as downsloping westerly winds
continue across the southern TX Panhandle, and finally pushing
through by Monday night.

18z Monday would be 1pm Central. As you look up to Dalhart and into the Ok panhandle, the temps are near or below freezing. So considering this, it does look early.

18z is noon central.

Thanks. I forgot we're in Standard Time. God I hate Daylight Savings time.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like the wind has shifted in Amarillo. The OK panhandle is reporting winds up to 39 mph. Maybe a sooner than expected arrival?

It's through Dumas and Pampa for sure and looks like it's on the door step at Amarillo.

[BTAYLOR5021]

Is DFW set up Geographically to where its often the battle zone with rain/snow? This is seen with many winter systems. Kinda nerve racking.

[EnnisTx]

Is DFW set up Geographically to where its often the battle zone with rain/snow? This is seen with many winter systems. Kinda nerve racking.

Higher elevations to the Northwest and West tend to help them verses here.

[gpsnowman]

Is DFW set up Geographically to where its often the battle zone with rain/snow? This is seen with many winter systems. Kinda nerve racking.

A lot of it has to do with elevation. For example Dallas is around 450 feet above sea level and just to our west in Weatherford the elevation is over a thousand feet. This is why the frozen preciip line is always just to the west of DFW. I am sure other factors play a role but elevation is key.

Edit. Ennistx beat me to it.

[EnnisTx]

Is DFW set up Geographically to where its often the battle zone with rain/snow? This is seen with many winter systems. Kinda nerve racking.

A lot of it has to do with elevation. For example Dallas is around 450 feet above sea level and just to our west in Weatherford the elevation is over a thousand feet. This is why the frozen preciip line is always just to the west of DFW. I am sure other factors play a role but elevation is key.

Edit. Ennistx beat me to it.

Well, you explained it better then I did!

[Jarodm12]

I think that if we want a big winter storm further east, then we want these wrf models to verify, I also think we are 48 hours (or maybe alittle less) from the event and that a 50 to 100 mile shift east is not unlikely, its almost expected

[orangeblood]

I think that if we want a big winter storm further east, then we want these wrf models to verify, I also think we are 48 hours (or maybe alittle less) from the event and that a 50 to 100 mile shift east is not unlikely, its almost expected

Yep, more often than not...I'd say 4 out of 5 events like this one, the NWS expands warnings/advisories 1-2 counties Southeast the day of the event. If the WRF were to verify, that would definitely be the case as temps are 2-3 deg F colder on that model with heavier precip.

[SnowintheFalls]

I am happy to see this board light up a bit. This has been a dreadful winter so far but hopefully we will end winter with a bang!

[wxman57]

I'm very excited to see that Houston will see a low in the upper 30s and a high in the 50s on Thursday. Quite a winter storm for SE TX... At least the 70s will be returning for the weekend (and for at least 10 days to follow). Hope you folks in the D-FW area get some winter weather out of this storm so that we can finally move on to spring. I think you may see some snowflakes out of this in Fort Worth. Dallas is a lot more iffy.

[EnnisTx]

I am happy to see this board light up a bit. This has been a dreadful winter so far but hopefully we will end winter with a bang!

And possibly a strike of lightning or two with thunder sleet/snow.