Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Ralph's Weather]

An inch of precip for me on Thu with temps around freezing, if we assume temps are a bit warm then looking at 6"+. There is still wild potential for this system, but we have seen the bust potential also. Small differences in evolution of the SW low mean difference between light rain with a bit of snow and a 36 hour winter storm.

[txtwister78]

Ensembles should really be interesting tonight to see if this is going to become a trend or another one off of model runs with the windshield wiper effect that we've been getting as of late.

[txtwister78]

An inch of precip for me on Thu with temps around freezing, if we assume temps are a bit warm then looking at 6"+. There is still wild potential for this system, but we have seen the bust potential also. Small differences in evolution of the SW low mean difference between light rain with a bit of snow and a 36 hour winter storm.

Exactly. Nothing guaranteed yet. I wouldn't imagine NWS offices going all in just yet based off one run. Need to see consecutive runs and more ensemble support before that will occur in my opinion.

[rwfromkansas]

Question…for snow you usually want to have the 1000-500 thickness at 540.

The models show it snowing at 546 in DFW. Is this 540 rule not accurate in the south?

[gpsnowman]

Ensembles should really be interesting tonight to see if this is going to become a trend or another one off of model runs with the windshield wiper effect that we've been getting as of late.

Legit concern. I mentioned earlier my heart can't take much more flip flopping.

[Brent]

Enjoy it Brent!

Ira gonna be interesting because the news is like 12 tops and around the metro it's like no worse than 8-10... Somebody gonna be wrong

Wichita stations show up to 16 in spots along I-70. Would be the biggest storm in a decade easily.

That's what I'm saying. I think it's a very bold strategy to be kind of eh about snow totals with this given the potential

[Brandon8181]

Canadian is going to phase. It's also stupid cold Thursday morning which I don't believe.

Overall looks much better and similar to other globals now. However, it’s QPF depiction is really flawed…

TV Mets and the NWS offices should start to become a little more vocal about the potential of this one

NWS still has Sunny everyday for Dallas TX next week.

[txtwister78]

Btw...don't you just get a kick out of the 18z Euro AI with temps in the low 60's across SC TX next Thursday.

[orangeblood]

An inch of precip for me on Thu with temps around freezing, if we assume temps are a bit warm then looking at 6"+. There is still wild potential for this system, but we have seen the bust potential also. Small differences in evolution of the SW low mean difference between light rain with a bit of snow and a 36 hour winter storm.

Exactly. Nothing guaranteed yet. I wouldn't imagine NWS offices going all in just yet based off one run. Need to see consecutive runs and more ensemble support before that will occur in my opinion.

This is the first piece of the puzzle, seeing the cutoff solution taken off the table by almost all of the Operationals and bringing the phase solution to the forefront. Lots of details to work out after but this is the big trend you need to see first

[txtwister78]

An inch of precip for me on Thu with temps around freezing, if we assume temps are a bit warm then looking at 6"+. There is still wild potential for this system, but we have seen the bust potential also. Small differences in evolution of the SW low mean difference between light rain with a bit of snow and a 36 hour winter storm.

Exactly. Nothing guaranteed yet. I wouldn't imagine NWS offices going all in just yet based off one run. Need to see consecutive runs and more ensemble support before that will occur in my opinion.

This is the first piece of the puzzle, seeing the cutoff solution taken off the table by almost all of the Operationals and bringing the phase solution to the forefront. Lots of details to work out after but this is the big trend you need to see first

Agreed although wouldn't call it quite a trend just yet based off one run output. Yes, we're back in the right direction, but definitely want to see consecutive runs if I'm a forecaster before sounding the alarm bells so to speak regarding snow potential.

[orangeblood]

Exactly. Nothing guaranteed yet. I wouldn't imagine NWS offices going all in just yet based off one run. Need to see consecutive runs and more ensemble support before that will occur in my opinion.

This is the first piece of the puzzle, seeing the cutoff solution taken off the table by almost all of the Operationals and bringing the phase solution to the forefront. Lots of details to work out after but this is the big trend you need to see first

Agreed although wouldn't call it quite a trend just yet based off one run output. Yes, we're back in the right direction, but definitely want to see consecutive runs if I'm a forecaster before sounding the alarm bells so to speak regarding snow potential.

Let’s call it more of a pivot at this point, particularly with all the globals doing it around the same time

[txtwister78]

Exactly. Nothing guaranteed yet. I wouldn't imagine NWS offices going all in just yet based off one run. Need to see consecutive runs and more ensemble support before that will occur in my opinion.

This is the first piece of the puzzle, seeing the cutoff solution taken off the table by almost all of the Operationals and bringing the phase solution to the forefront. Lots of details to work out after but this is the big trend you need to see first

Agreed although wouldn't call it quite a trend just yet based off one run output. Yes, we're back in the right direction, but definitely want to see consecutive runs if I'm a forecaster before sounding the alarm bells so to speak regarding snow potential.

Case and point...GEFS definitely coming in warmer and snow signal continues to fade for much of the state with the exception for panhandle region down into Lubbock area. Not the trend you want to see from an ensemble the closer you get to the range we're all looking at

[Stratton23]

Its just one run of the GEFS, no reason to be concerned yet

[Gotwood]

Nam showing a HP in Montana of 1056 on 1-7. Cold is coming.

[txtwister78]

the GEFS will correct back

Problem with that is the closer you get the less variability you're going to get from an ensemble. Trends with that output either way telegraph what the operational is going to eventually arrive at. GEFS continues to signal a cutoff low and it meanders/stalls over the baja region. No phasing.

[Gotwood]

1050 HP in Montana on the 7th for the short range Canadian with much colder temps than the NAM.

[jaguars_22]

GEFS still shows snow signal for southeast tx. It just pushes it back in time…

[txtwister78]

ICON is really the model that we need to root for to be right in my opinion. Has just enough cold around with a much more progressive system coming out phasing at the right time. It's ensemble also remains the coldest and most favorable I think for next week. ICON has been pretty good with these close call events down here in the past.

[Gotwood]

ICON 1049 HP on the 7th. Shouldn’t be a surprise that was one of the colder runs for ICON. Cold air is coming down south.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 the ICON has an ensemble?