Texas Winter 2019-2020

[rwfromkansas]

12 GFS brings heavier snow closer to DFW but trims the eastern side also.

[orangeblood]

12 GFS brings heavier snow closer to DFW but trims the eastern side also.

A lot of models are having a difficult time bringing the freezing line through the "Urban Heat Island" of DFW with this front

[starsfan65]

12 GFS brings heavier snow closer to DFW but trims the eastern side also.

A lot of models are having a difficult time bringing the freezing line through the "Urban Heat Island" of DFW with this front

a difficult time?

[TropicalTundra]

WRF-ARW looks scary very heavy snow

[orangeblood]

This is a pretty remarkable sounding for sleet at DFW Wednesday morning 6am...reason for sleet is notice how the DGZ (between -10 to -20C) isn't very saturated and the slight warm nose at the 700-800 mb level. Would have major issues for rush hour if this came anywhere close to verifying





However, just to the west around the Weatherford area, the DGZ looks a little better for snow growth

[Ralph's Weather]

This is a pretty remarkable sounding for sleet at DFW Wednesday morning 6am...reason for sleet is notice how the DGZ (between -10 to -20C) isn't very saturated and the slight warm nose at the 700-800 mb level. Would have major issues for rush hour if this came anywhere close to verifying

That is a near perfect sleet sounding. A degree one way or another through the lower column is the difference between freezing rain and snow.

[Brent]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

[Jarodm12]

Don't give up hope you all, pay attention to the high res models, almost all of them are significantly colder than the globals, all that we need is for the precipitation shield to lift out a tad further east, which i think is the most likely scenario, if these wrf models were to verify all of north Texas would likely be under a warning, even pete delkus is tweet that ," he's thinking about canceling school on Wednesday" all is not lost, the true model watching and analysis has just begun this should be fun, i hope all of you enjoy a very white winter wonderland surprise on Wednesday and that you all drive safely, I don't think, and haven't thought that temps are the problem, with a strong north wind and continued cold air advection and dew points in the mid 20s, we should have no problem wetbulbing below freezing. What we need is for the impulse to lift out further east just 50 miles further east! Be on the lookout for the system to strengthen and have better characteristics going into Wednesday!

[Cerlin]

Sleetmageddon 2020 inbound!

[bubba hotep]

The ARW2 & NMMB WRFs both look like big hits for DFW with temps in the upper 20s. Also, essentially all guidance is off on temps with 30s already surging into the Panhandle. Amarillo is at 45F which is also colder than all guidance with some models being nearly 20F to warm.

[SnowintheFalls]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

While we would typically always welcome you up here, if you came up on Wednesday all the snow would shift away from us to DFW!

[Cerlin]

The ARW2 & NMMB WRFs both look like big hits for DFW with temps in the upper 20s. Also, essentially all guidance is off on temps with 30s already surging into the Panhandle. Amarillo is at 45F which is also colder than all guidance with some models being nearly 20F to warm.

That is precisely what we want to see for good snow chances. It indicates that the air mass is deeper and colder than intended right? So that means a better chance of the precipitation being more wintry, if it doesn’t get dry slotted.

[Brent]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

While we would typically always welcome you up here, if you came up on Wednesday all the snow would shift away from us to DFW!

I know my luck sucks but I did see some snow in Lake Tahoe last month it's gonna be a game time decision late tomorrow\

well that is the plan...

[gpsnowman]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

While we would typically always welcome you up here, if you came up on Wednesday all the snow would shift away from us to DFW!

Haha this cracks me up. Poor Brent, your snow curse is becoming known statewide!!

[orangeblood]

The ARW2 & NMMB WRFs both look like big hits for DFW with temps in the upper 20s. Also, essentially all guidance is off on temps with 30s already surging into the Panhandle. Amarillo is at 45F which is also colder than all guidance with some models being nearly 20F to warm.

Yep, the globals have no clue where this front is located

[Ralph's Weather]

Per NAM and especially the WRF models the sleet line Wed morning would reach my area (Smith County).

[bubba hotep]

The ARW2 & NMMB WRFs both look like big hits for DFW with temps in the upper 20s. Also, essentially all guidance is off on temps with 30s already surging into the Panhandle. Amarillo is at 45F which is also colder than all guidance with some models being nearly 20F to warm.

Yep, the globals have no clue where this front is located

Something to watch this afternoon, models actually show temps rebounding across the Panhandles as warming essentially stalls the front. If the cold air plows south and temps don't rebound then that could be a game changer for those currently SE of the Winter Storm Watch.

[EnnisTx]

This is a pretty remarkable sounding for sleet at DFW Wednesday morning 6am...reason for sleet is notice how the DGZ (between -10 to -20C) isn't very saturated and the slight warm nose at the 700-800 mb level. Would have major issues for rush hour if this came anywhere close to verifying



https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/wrf-arw_2020020312_fh48_sounding_32.89N_97.01W.png

However, just to the west around the Weatherford area, the DGZ looks a little better for snow growth

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/images/wrf-arw_2020020312_fh48_sounding_32.54N_98.06W.png

I looked at the sounding for Arlington and it's at 28F TEMP, 27F WET BULB and 24F DEW POINT

[Cerlin]

The convective bands on the 12z ARW look NUTS. That’s model heaven right there.

[losf1981]

unless this trends snowier for DFW I am looking at possibly headed up towards Wichita Falls since I'm off Wednesday

I'm kind of over chasing snow(especially when none have been that big)... but if the higher totals are gonna verify

A reserved excitement is what I would call it around here in WF.